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04-10-2014 , 08:08 AM
Can't find link for the injury at the moment, but it's not that he is still currently injured, just that he is coming off a back injury (reason why his last fight was 8 months ago)

Will look more later, might have been bad info.
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04-10-2014 , 11:59 AM
Can't wait for Bisping line to drop on Pinnacle. If I can get -160ish i'll be thrilled with it. He matches up so well with Kennedy. Better technical striking, longer reach, excellent TDD. He's exactly the type of fighter Bisping destroys to earn a #1 contender bout before losing said bout.

Short of a random miracle punch from Kennedy, I just don't see how he wins. Chael struggled to get Bisping down and Chael is 10x the wrestler Kennedy is, plus he's a bigger guy. The only strikers who have beaten Bisping are far more explosive than Kennedy. Let's face it, Bisping's worst loss ever is Wanderlei Silva (assuming we go by actual decisions) and that was a close fight when Silva was closer to his prime than he is currently. Sure his best wins are probably about on par with Kennedy (Stann, Belcher etc.) but he's never lost to anyone worse than him either.

On another note does anyone else think it could be worth betting Nijem straight up at +220ish and Dariush -3.5 points at -125ish? The only losing outcome is Dariush 29-28 and does anyone really think he's going to win a close decision? Either he goes out there and finishes, Nijem dominates via takedowns and wins or Dariush lights him up standing enroute to a TKO or easy win if he can't get him down. Is it me or does that seem like a really good spot to go either side and hope to avoid the very unlikely middle? What price are we getting there on Not Dariush 29-28? I feel like I could work it out but not while mass tabling. How exactly does a fight play out where Dariush wins 29-28 other than getting LnP'd in r1 then Ramsey being unable to get him down for the rest of the fight and also not get finished? I mean, if Ramsey loses r1/2 he's not winning r3 very often if he's not knocked out by then so it seems like the only way it can happen is Ramsey wins r1 and Dariush wins r2/3 exactly
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04-10-2014 , 04:45 PM
Yeah I really like Bisping in this matchup too but I always think Bisping is underpriced it seems. He's just one of those guys who is better on paper than he is in practice if that makes any sense.

One nice thing about Bisping is you can count on him to fight to his strengths basically every time.
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04-10-2014 , 07:39 PM
Ring rust and 2 eye ops may mean he's a different fighter this time though. Been a good while since he's been in the cage. Without those X factors I agree on paper should be an easy bisping
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04-11-2014 , 01:00 AM
So Elliot, thoughts on a fair line for Castillo straight up/ITD/decision? Which of the three do you like most against Brenneman?

Looks like the money has started to come on Guida. I'm pretty happy with my bets, anyone got thoughts on Rosholt/Omelianczuk?
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04-11-2014 , 02:24 AM
I'm far too biased to offer a fair assessment unfortunately.
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04-11-2014 , 02:41 AM
Anyone else think Beltran should be favored over Vlad
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04-11-2014 , 02:48 AM
Only problem is he finds a way to lose 2-6-1 in last 9 fights
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04-11-2014 , 04:14 AM
Yeah I kinda like Beltran there but i'm so bad at betting on Bellator i'm staying away
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04-11-2014 , 04:39 AM
I mean Vlad is like, past 40 now. Beltran has a chin. Vlad's only chance is to lay n pray pretty much.
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04-11-2014 , 04:48 AM
I like Beltran vs. Vlad at this stage of their careers. Vlad might be able to LnP the 1st Rd. but after that I expect him to be too gassed to get another TD.
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04-11-2014 , 04:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
I tend to agree he looked good vs Soriano but his only win of a Guida or better fighter is Thompson and that was a few years ago and Kawajiri is pretty old - if we go through the same time frame Guida has wins over Pettis, RDA and arguably Maynard

Assuming the Mendes TKO didn't break Guida mentally I like him here

Also we had Gastelum/Musoke announced (Gastelum to -300 at least) and DJ/Bagautinov, although ive ridden the Bagautinov train all the way in the UFC since his first fight this is where I get off since DJ is better everywhere, seems like DJ to -250ish is a pretty easy bet
Another way to look at it is who has he lost to?

With a record of 35-7 his only losses since 2005 have come to Melendez twice, Alvarez, Shinya Aoki, and Gomi back in 2005 when he was a killer.

He's beaten all other comers and Guida is just nothing on his feet. Guida's reach is small and his striking tecniques makes his reach even smaller. Half his punches that he throws have no chance of landing. His cardio is great and if his TDD attempt timing can be excellent when he's on form but far too much inconsistency imo. I like Kawajiri up to -160.
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04-11-2014 , 05:25 AM
Unfortunately don't forget that the judges score all those whiffed punches like gold.
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04-11-2014 , 06:56 AM
Ok i'm convinced why not half unit on Beltran @ +113

Also added 0.2u each as small dogs on Leites and Yahya fight unders, i'd be surprised if neither gets a sub plus a chance both get KO'd etc standing
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04-11-2014 , 07:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_mo
Anyone else think Beltran should be favored over Vlad
I like Beltran. Vlad has already announced he's retiring after this fight, win or lose....doesn't bode well for Vlad.
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04-11-2014 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris M
I like Beltran. Vlad has already announced he's retiring after this fight, win or lose....doesn't bode well for Vlad.
This.

Vlad has been in the business for years and I hope the UFC (Dana likes him) will offer him a position as a Talent scout in Eastern Europe/Russia.
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04-11-2014 , 12:26 PM
Well that was a dumb way for it to end thought Bedford landed a nice KO but nope head clash

Under hits but my small Yahya sweat misses, I knew not to bet on him but put it on for the sweat anyway. Oh well

-0.3u start so far. Should have stuck to the under. On to the next one which I don't care about in the slightest as i've never heard of either guy. Glad I left Yahya out of my two parlays.

I also did a 0.02u parlay to win 27.9u on every under on the card

Edit: oh wait, no contest not a win for Bedford. Gotta kinda feel sorry for him there.

I guess that means i'm up 0.25u or so if the under hits?
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04-11-2014 , 12:29 PM
Oh here we go

Bedford being a classless dick but it makes the rematch much more anticipated than this fight was

Shame they can't fight again tonight but athletic commissions etc it would be nice if they could let 2-3 prelims happen then put them on again in a couple fights time

Looks like we have a rematch on one of the next few cards, leaning Bedford based on the 30 seconds we saw, he looked big fast and stuffed the shot
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04-11-2014 , 12:34 PM
I want to bet on this fight so I care who wins but I don't know who to pick so 0.2u on the under at +110 it is then
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04-11-2014 , 12:38 PM
btw @ sect and elliot anyone else i sometimes place bets for i'm back from holiday if any of you want a sweat or w/e
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04-11-2014 , 12:44 PM
Adding 0.3u +110 on the Leites fight under for 0.5u total
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04-11-2014 , 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
btw @ sect and elliot anyone else i sometimes place bets for i'm back from holiday if any of you want a sweat or w/e
It's way too early to have a drink here in Canada... doh you talked me into it... PM sent for bets
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04-11-2014 , 12:58 PM
glgl they're booked

Not the best fight not the worst with the two debutants, back to being up just under 0.1u for the card

Hardy is a lot more fun as interviewer than Anik

lol at Alers thinking a split decision over a nobody gets him a shot at Conor McGregor but I guess he wants a high profile feud, think he needs to beat someone a bit higher ranked to get what he wants though
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04-11-2014 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
glgl they're bookedNot the best fight not the worst with the two debutants, back to being up just under 0.1u for the card

Hardy is a lot more fun as interviewer than Anik

lol at Alers thinking a split decision over a nobody gets him a shot at Conor McGregor but I guess he wants a high profile feud, think he needs to beat someone a bit higher ranked to get what he wants though
Thx once again. I was supposed to grind today... sigh. Dead Elephant time for me (awesome beer)
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04-11-2014 , 01:09 PM
Leites wins the squash match of the card... but TKO was unexpected

Up around 0.6u for the card and with both parlays live
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