Russow would dominate Schaub for the first 2 rounds w his wrestling. Or KO him if he connects w even a jab. 3rd round Schaub wins if he has any gas left in the tank.

Well, I don't think it would be far fetched, they've fought before so they could possible sell it as a rematch and since Nelson is higher ranked than Rothwell, it makes perfect sense. Winners don't always fight winners. If a higher ranked guy losses, he either gets matched up with another losser around the same rank or a lower ranked guy who just won, usually. Just look at the Shogun vs Forrest fight. Shogun was higher ranked and had lost his previous fight, whereas Forrest was lower ranked and had won his previous fight.

Nelson's fighting Gonzaga.

Ur right, I'm speaking in generalities

Maybe, that's why it's a good match up. I would disagree w/ you and think Schaub would win on points, but like I said you may be right - what you describe is the opposite of the Russow/Duffee fight tho

A diff contradiction of the winner/winner loser/loser paradigm but still excellent match-making

Thoughts on Gonzaga Nelson? Will Nelson once again get outclassed by a brazilian?

The winners/losers thing doesn't really apply when we're talking about late replacements. At this point, it's more of a convenience/whoever can step in approach.

Nelson should beat Gonzaga one would think, but this seems like it will be close. Nelson does not have the boxing skill that Schaub used to completely shut Gonzaga's offense down. His power combined with Gonzaga's chin though means a Big Country KO is a decent possibility.

I'm pretty big on these 3 lines. I think all 3 are way off:
Ferguson -250
Stephens +240
Cung le +265

The Jeremy Stephens line is really puzzling. I thought we all just saw Cerrone's boxing get exposed for crap no? Wasn't this hype train just massively derailed? Am I the only one who saw that fight?

The first two lines look about right to me, what's your reasoning for seeing value there?

I definitely expect Franklin to knock Cung Le out though. Le is a good technical striker but Franklin is not Wanderlei (whom Le was outpointing for awhile), he should be able to trade fairly evenly with Le and he has way more power in his hands.

Korean Zombie around +300 vs Dustin Poirier looks mighty tempting...any thoughts on this line?

Definitely like Korean Zombie and Cung Le at those prices.

Ferguson is going to run through Johnson, he should be at least -300 to -400. He's the better boxer, more power, the wrestling is going to even out.

Stephens, I'm not sure, tbh, I wouldn't judge his entire standup game when it comes to the last fight first bc Diaz is a top level ufc boxer(I said ufc boxer, I'm sure he wouldn't fare well against top level boxers outside ufc, diaz) and 2nd of all, he fought that fight emotionally and didn't gameplan accordingly. With that said, Stephens is a cardio machine. If he can press the action and takedown Cerrone repeteadly, he has a good shot.

Lee is a wildcard, yes he has better striking than Rich, but he let's not forget his gas tank isn't all that. This fight depends on lots of factors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Lee dominate in the beginning to lose to a TKO/KO later on.

Nelson - Gonzaga seems to be a good matchup for Roy. Gonzaga isn't particularly durable and if Roy can land he should be able to put him away. Gonzaga isn't a super elite striker or anything so if Roy is coming forward he should be ok.
Gonzaga can outwrestle him though and is likely the better grappler, but Mir, who I guess isn't as good as Gonzaga on the ground, had a real hard time keeping Roy down, so maybe it won't be too hard for Roy to get up if he gets taken down.

Franklin has a big size/ cardio advantage, and should be able to gameplan better than Wanderlei. But I wouldn't take Rich at that price.
I agree with value in the Stephens line good call.

WHAT? Silva would get RAGDOLLED by Jones. Literally just thrown around like a child.

dont think the Zombie line is good at all. Poiriers strengths shut zombies down REALLY hard.

Gonzaga/Rosario being nixxed really ****ing sucks. FU dana. FUFUFUFUFUFUFU. IB what do u mean Gonzaga is LIKELY the better grappler? Hes much better BJJ than Nelson.

I actually meant, and my sentence came out wrong, was saying that Gonzaga is likely the better grappler than Mir, at least in MMA terms. You might think its incredulous to even consider the question, which is still fair.
My point was that Mir didn't do much to Nelson on the ground when he kept taking him down, and its unlikely that Gonzaga gets an easy sub if/ when he is able to get Roy down.

if it's anything, it's the other way around, gonzaga may be the better grappler outside of MMA, but Mir has better MMA grappling for sure. He is the most succesful submission artist in the heavyweight division, Mir that is. If anyone is going to finish the fight, it's going to be Nelson, Gonzaga ain't TKO/KO'ing him, he ain't subbing him either, Nelson is a decent grappler, it's just his body form that doesn't allow him to sub people. Even though it was a long time ago and cardio played a big part, Nelson won a grappling contest vs Mir.

Dustin Poirier is going to crush Korean Zombie.

Ferguson is better everywhere than Johnson and should be -400/-500. Better striking and wrestling. Generally guys without an obvious path to victory are bigger dogs than this.

I think Stephens KOs Cerrone a lot. Cerrone's boxing sucks, he's got great kicks but horrible hands. I mentioned it before the Diaz fight and that fight made his boxing look worse than I had expected. He is very hittable and Stephens has big time power at 155. Stephens is also coming off a very competitive fight against Pettis who is way better than Cerrone everywhere.

I don't think Franklin trades evenly with Le. Franklin's path to victory is to survive getting lit up in round 1 and maybe round 2, then capitalize on a fading Le later in the fight. Le's path to victory is to stop Franklin early in the fight or show up with better cardio and make it to a decision.

Is he the better wrestler though? But yeah his standup technique is far superior, he is one of my favorites to watch. Seems reasonable, but with logic this solid you better hit the line now because others seem to agree.

How the hell you think Cerrone will get KO'd by Stephens is honestly beyond me though. Cerrone chin is godly. I agree about the Pettis thing but that fight did not play out at all like I expect this fight too.

I just don't see Le making it through 3 rounds with Franklin without getting finished. I just don't. Franklin is a good striker, will be WAY bigger and has way more power. Le's chin is not good at all and as others have mentioned his cardio sucks, which means he will be a sitting duck eventually.

Not sure why a couple of you are so down on the Zombie's chances? He has good power and a great chin. IIRC, he stands a bit flat footed, which means Poirier should be able to use movement and his nice kicking game to gain an edge on Jung, but I'm not seeing this as a whitewash?

I think Franklin is just going to beast mode his way through Le. It won't be pretty (or easy) but I just don't see Le being able to do enough damage before Franklin gets his hands on him. The guy is just ****ing tough.

Doesn't Johnson have a wrestling background? I think he loves to strike though.

Sup guys. I missed you <3

Korean Zombie vs Poirier tomorrow, whos watching the weigh ins today at 4EST?

Already have 1u on Poirier -320

Waiting for weighins for these three-
Maldonado (Like his shot just want to see how both fighters look)
Saddolah (You never know with this guy though he seems to do the opposite of what you expect)
Jason MacDonald (hoping to get +220 +)

Long time no see.

Poirer over Korean Zombie,
Cerrone over Stephens,
Maldonado over Pokrajac, heard Maldonado got very good boxing.

I'm thinking fotn either Poirer/zombie or Cerrone/stephens, but I'm thinking after Cerrones last fight, he's not going out to swing, more like it he's going to try and win a unam d?