Didn't realize Ronda only did 6weeks. That's crazy for a title fight

I wonder how Ronda's cardio as she's never been past the first round.

It's probably good, she's an olympic level athlete

Rousey's biggest question mark is chin and how she reacts when she's in real trouble or taking shots standing if she can't get a takedown

That said she's always been able to get a takedown, so

I'll throw 0.1u or w/e on Tate for the sweat anyway but I fully expect Rousey to win - i'll call R2 armbar.

I did have a dream Tate won by TKO in r4 while she was down 29-28 on the scorecards after Rousey won r1 and 2 and Tate won r3, so if that happens my dreams are magic and stuff

I just found this forum. I have a lot of bets for UFC 168 tomorrow!

--
UFC 168 (Risk $950 for $1534)

Weidman +145: $100 for $145 // Weidman SUB +485: $25 for $121.25 // (Parlay Over 2½ -105) // (Parlay Weidman +140) vs Silva
Rousey (Parlay Under 1½ -160*) // (Parlay Rousey -700) vs Tate
Barnett -175: $175 for $100 // Over 1½ -110: $110 for $100 // Barnett DEC +447: $25 for $111.75 // (Parlay Over 1½) // (Parlay Barnett -185) vs Browne
Miller DEC +174: $25 for $43.50 // (Parlay Over 2½) // (Parlay -400) // (RR Miller-400) vs Camoes
Poirier -3½ points +105: $50 for $52.50 // Poirier ITD +135: $25 for $33.75 // (Parlay Poirer -200) // (RR Poirer -260) vs Brandao

Leben (Parlay Hall -300) // (RR Hall -290) vs Hall
Tibau DEC +194: $25 for $48.50 // (Parlay Tibau -140) // (Parlay Over 2½ -165) // (Parlay Tibau -140) // (RR Tibau -140) vs Johnson
Siver -250: $100 for $40 // Siver DEC +135: $25 for $33.75 // (Parlay Siver -260) // (Parlay Over 2½ -195) // (Parlay Siver -260) vs Gamburyan
Howard +130: $50 for $65 vs Bahadurzada // (Parlay Howard +125)

Macario vs Voelker (Parlay Over 1½ -145)
Peralta vs Payan (Parlay Over 2½ -120)

Parlays
$25.00 for $54.32 Weidman/Silva Over 2½ -105* + Tate/Rousey Under 1½ -160*
$25.00 for $34.34 Tibau -140* + Siver -260*
$25.00 for $35.74 Tibau/Johnson Over 2½ -165* + Gamburyan/Siver Over 2½ -195*
$25.00 for $62.38 Browne/Barnett Over 1½ -115* + Camoes/Miller Over 2½ -115*
$25.00 for $52.44 Macario/Voelker Over 1½ -145* + Payan/Peralta Over 2½ -120* [Facebook Prelims]
$25.00 for $153.02 Hall -300* + Tibau -140* + Siver -260* + Howard +125* [Televised Prelims]
$25.00 for $173.07 Weidman +140* + Rousey -700* + Barnett -185* + Miller -400* + Poirier -200* [Main Card]
RR 3-Teams $40 for $73.69 Miller -400* & Poirier-260* & Hall -290* & Tibau -140*

hmm... the catch weight is always negotiated on a case by case basis right? And also is there a standard for the fined purse? he had to give 25% to poirier (I would be elated -> free money + probably drained opponent.. lol~). Probably varies from AC to AC - or did brandao miss weight before? hmm...

And about Ronda - yes she probably might have gotten a little bit distracted by the shooting and stuff. But I think she will have made sure that she will be trained properly with all the drama/rivalry going on, etc. If anything 6 weeks might be good against being over-trained. And in her first fight she onlyy had 1-yr mma experience. Only danger with grapplers learning the standup is if they think they are The Spider / that excellent striker suddenly (e.g. demian maia; ok ... jacare actually is - but that's not the norm lol). Not seeing that problem here yet though...

and btw... here's an excellent video of Ronda's Judo / TD game:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqBoyekp_ZY

If she gets that clinch... that dual threat of hip toss / trip is deadly!

Weidman as the underdog is an absolute steal, bet the house on him, I'm sure most people did before the first fight and are baffled at how an absolute stylistic nightmare is still the underdog after winning.

I think Browne has very little for Barnett unless Barnett gasses and gets lit up going for sloppy clinch/takedowns in the later rounds.

The ref has more chance of winning the fight than Leben, he has always been god awful and I'm sure this fight will again highlight his skill of being a wind up monkey toy that slowly moves forward swinging clunkily with a chance of wobbling over.

Why do you think this correlates to good cardio? As I said earlier I bet on Tate but if Ronda's cardio is top notch I don't feel there is any chance Tate wins.

Judo matches are only 5 minutes, training extreme cardio for a match that length wouldn't make sense. I am not saying she doesn't now but being an Olypmic level athlete in general doesn't have much to do with cardio I don't think for Judo players.

In saying that I know nothing about Judo training...so who knows.

Hi Jim, welcome to the forum - I actually saw your Sherdog post in the thread there

Going to give it a few hours to wait and see where the lines go then may make a few more bets and sit back and watch the card

Only 3 bets so far.

Hall 5u at -290, Hall seems pumped and Leben, I just don't see it, I think he may be fighting for the paycheck at this moment. Money is still good and it's not like some big money source job is waiting for him after he calls it quits, right?
Browne at 2u at +140 something. Figure it will be an even fight and I'll take the dog in that case. Surprised to see Browne the underdog though considering lots of media predictors and guys here are on Browne.
2u at -140 at Siyar. Was a bit reluctant to bet here though, but considering Siyar is physically bigger than Howard and I think his standup is sharper than Howards, so shouldnt be able to grind out Siyar.

The other fights, so many variables that I don't really see a clear victory for anyone. Brandao might not be affected by the missed weight cut, but it also maybe is that he had a bad camp or something else and will be negatively affected.

AS Weidman, don't know if first fight was an anomaly and AS was on his way to score a unam decision or tko after Weidman failed his takedown attempt.

Johnson Tibau, Johnson has looked goog in his latest fight, but he tends to lose to people who are good grapplers and can impose a smothering game plan on him. Tibau should be that guy, but Johnson looked good in his last fight, so I don't know what's happening here.

Tibau beats guys like Johnson unless they can stuff all of his takedowns.

I mean, he beat RDA and nearly beat Khabib.

The line is improving so i'm considering adding a bit more since while Lauzon has elite grappling he doesn't have takedowns/strength which Tibau does have

Johnson will beat Tibau standing but Tibau is hard to finish and isn't ashamed to spam takedown attempts and he'll eventually get one and get the sub or lnp decision I think

i see lots of people betting on browne here just a reminder this is trt barnett hes facing

well they actually had the wada testing... with random out of competition testing. barnett was tested like 7 times and browne 5-6x. barnett will probably never get a trt exemption lol... while it may obv. affect barnett, so it could do with browne since probably a lot of those hws are on something... ;D

Hmm I'm not really a judo guy, but I think most judo tournaments have the weighins on the same day and multiple 5 minutes matches, which actually can happen with only short breaks inbetween if you are unlucky. So cardio is probably quite important since you will lose the later matches if you are not on point cardio-wise. Obv. probably not as grueling as with only 1 min breaks to recover, but still not just 5 mins.

Thanks, I hadn't thought about this.

Browne free money. I promise.

why do u keep saying this? dont have time to find it but im sure if u look its not that hard to see that barnett has said he wont take trt, he will retire if it gets to the point he needs it



should b a great card

my thoughts

weidman is jus better then silva at this point in there careers and should b a -200 fav imo, im loving this line going up and expect it to keep going up as public money comes in on silva

barnett is gonna b too much for browne at this point, and i have bet on browne every fight so far and think he 1 day has a shot at being champ

those r the 2 im going to hammer will also have some small plays on

sihar
macario (fading voelker)
tibau


and a few odds plays on

tate
leben(dont see how he wins but wudnt lay -300 on hall vs ne1)
gamburyan

i dont think you know the definition of free money barnett is a straight beast

2.66u Silva -133
2u Browne +170
2u Brandao +195 (pre-weigh ins)
3.3u Tibau -140 average
2.88u Siyar -144
0.3u Tate +550
1.26u to win 1u Siver
1u Macario +131
1.7u to win 1u Peralta
0.5u to win 4.7u Browne/Siver/Siyar/Tibau parlay
0.4u to win 6.4u Browne/Brandao/Siver/Tibau parlay (pre-weigh ins)

Plus two ridiculous long shot 0.05u to win 10u and 40u tiny 10 fight parlays which are basically combos of the above plus the fights I haven't picked

Barnett/Browne I actually bet FoTN +1000 and o1.5 -110. Think this has the potential to be a war.

Pretty much exactly how I see this card

Quite like both of those @ that price

Fotn pretty good bet here at +1000 usually goes to a main card fight and ladies and main could easily be 1r blow outs

I've just got two bets for tonight,
1 unit on Barnett at -187 and just added another unit on Weidman at +160 on Betfair.
Really can't wait for tonight though going to be such a great card that even if I go 0-2 I don't think I'll be too disheartened.

All my plays for tonight. Good luck everyone, looking forward to a fun card.

1u Silva/Weidman under 2.5r -125
1u Weidman by decision +1046
2u Tate/Rousey under 1.5r -185
1.5u Travis Browne+160
0.5u Browne ITD +255
0.5u Poirier/Brandao goes distance +100
0.25u Poirier by decision +220
0.25u Hall by decision +245
1.5u Tibau/Johnson over 2.5r +110
0.5u Tibau by decision +194
0.25u Manny Gamburyan +230