Cruz strikes me as a really intelligent person who wouldn't let pride get in his way if he didn't think he could compete at the top level.

I expect to see Cruz back to his normal self, with no showing side effects from his injuries.

Also we haven't seen Cruz in 2years!! The guy has been training in the meantime. once most of the training he had was outside if a training camp, and probably alot of light technique stuff, we may see some new elements to his game.I also dont expect ring rust to be a huge issue, think the topic is generally overrated. I can think if way more examples of people taking A lot of time off and coming back in great shape, then returning poorly (when conning out if good camps)

Cruz has beaten the who's who of the BW division for a long time now, and if he didn't get hurt, there is a chance Barao isn't even a guy we talk about. Think at + anything Cruz is a good bet here.

I think Cruz is back to his old form. A guy like him won't go in there 50% and compete with the best if he feels he's not the same guy, just like GSP after his injury. He's been rehabilitating for 2 years, he's not rushing anything and will be about the same I think.

I'm sure Cruz feels a lot of pressure to come back and defend his strap and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he comes back before he feels 100%.

And "we might see a totally new and improved Cruz" is completely crazy. Have you ever rehabbed a serious knee injury? It's insanely difficult and it takes every ounce of you just to get back to the level you were at before.

Yeah, don't think he's coming back stronger.

Dana said recently that Cruz could have come back earlier but Cruz wanted to take more time to be sure he was 100%.

That reminds me of this video clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nHV-RXFKPY

It's Frankie Edgar's buddies watching the Penn-Edgar 1 decision being read. The first score that Buffer read was 50-45, and Edgar's boys were pissed! They assumed that score must be for Penn. But then ...

Fair enough. I still don't see Silva losing a decision... but who knows once the judges are involved.

EDIT: love the link

Wiedmans the champion here not silva

benavidez tko 1u +420, 1u +350 (L), ITD 1u +247 (L)
1u faber ITD +295 (W)
mendes ITD 1u -107 (L)

-1,12 (1-3) YTD + 18,955 (9-4-1)

Carlos Condit vs Tyron Woodley set for UFC 171 on 03/15/14 (same event as Hendricks/Lawler and Shields/Lombard).


Maia/Rory is Feb 22.

Dave Doyle ‏@davedoylemma 12m
'Bigfoot' Silva suspended, stripped of bonus after failing post-fight drug test
http://sbn.to/1hiQakl

So does the fight get get turned a No Contest because Bigfoot didn't lose? or is the result the same due to bigfoot not winning?

Also Bigfoot's possibly more marketable than ever before, and is still top 5 in a pretty shallow division. tough time to take a 9month break.

Edit: just realized Hunt is ranked #7 at HW. What would the odds on him even making the top 10 have been back in 2010 lol.

No contest for Bigfoot, but Hunt keeps the draw on his record.

Cruz claims that Dana got his words twisted on that http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ0fqVyxoz8

I actually think he could come back early because of the pressure caused from the talk about his long layoff and relinquishing the belt if he doesn't come back in time.

+320 for Cruz by Decision looks interesting.

and the $50,000 Bigfoot won for fight of the night is handed over to Hunt.

If Bigfoot's explanation is true it isn't that bad considering.

Despite Cruz not having a record as a finisher I prefer straight up at +2xx just because 5 rounds and we just saw MM finish JB

I'm new'ish to MMA betting but it seems to me like betting on the straight up seems like a poor EV bet vs betting on a decision in this example.

Cruz has never got a win from a stoppage in his last 10 fights (which goes to 5 years ago) except for an unintentional knee, a doctors stoppage for his opponents broken hand and a KO in the first round against a nobody who was finished in the first round in 83% of his other opponents. I can't see why you'd sacrifice +115 on such a low likelihood result.

Another recent example of where a prop seems to make sense is Urijah Faber, his money line was -150 whereas he is +350 for a sub where he is a fighter who is statistically >50% finishing via sub regardless of whether you measure his last 5, 10 or 20 fights (I bet this line).

And to use a future example I said earlier in this thread that I think the +600 they are paying for Weidman by sub seems undervalued.

Well, we might have our first Man vs Woman fight, http://www.mmafighting.com/2013/12/1...ight-on-friday

A no win situation for the man, he wins, he beat a woman, he loses, he just lost to a woman.

Dumb idea

What actually sucks is for guys like Nick Newell who are legit, UFC prob cant sign him because what UFC level fighter would fight a guy with one hand, if they win they beat a 1 armed man if they lose they lose to a 1 armed man

If a 0-1 Brazilian nobody wants to fight a woman they should have Cyborg beat him down for the lols

It works both ways though pre fight everybody wanted Mighty Mouse by decision and he randomly wins by TKO. Chael tapped Shogun. If the price is only marginally better (like +200 to +300) it often isn't worth it due to the wtf factor

In the last year or so alone we've had Johnson KO Benavidez, Sonnen submit Shogun, Prater beat Erick Silva ITD (by DQ) as did DHK (by TKO), Hunt/Bigfoot went the distance and was a draw, Castillo nearly finished Barboza in r1, Jon Fitch nearly lost to someone named Marcelo Alfaya who doesn't even have a wikipedia page and did lose to Josh Burkman, Overeem got KO'd by Bigfoot and Anderson Silva lost his title by TKO

This one might be my favorite (not in the last year though).



Lutter's only career KO/TKO (against Marvin Eastman, the guy who gave Rampage his first career loss and beat Jason MacDonald and Alan Belcher after this fight).

Lutter was of course a pure grappler. He had Anderson Silva mounted in round 1 of their fight (see below) and very nearly armbarred Rich Franklin in his next fight, taking round 1 in both fights before getting finished in round 2 of each.

Remember that mount, stupidly he went for the armbar, he could have KO'd him there if it asnt for AS's good chin.

True, recently I've been questioning the profitability of MMA betting. I typically only bet 1-3 fights a card. This year I had Hendricks, Dunham and Gomi each of them had the fights stolen by the judges.

We then had the crazy results you mentioned and many more similar results over the year. I feel I have a decent edge but the judging and random variance means it is so difficult to beat the vig.

Still all this is what makes it great to watch.....

Actually he doesn't really deny it at all. What's he gonna say? "Yeah I could've been back a while ago but I decided to wait."

He pretty much confirms what Dana said. He could've come back sooner but he wanted to train longer to make sure he's 100% for this fight and has no ring rust.