MMA Thread - Page 625 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

also put down 1.95 u on Dolloway/Boetsch over 1.5R @ -195... should go the distance most of the time and over 1.5 probably 80~90 percent of the time, I would guess. Only spoiler could be dolloway being ko'ed ...

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10-16-2013 , 06:32 PM

#15603

aim

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 438

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2013/1...uired-stitches

JDS had a cut three weeks ago in training which required three stitches back then. hmm... chance for ground and pound -> re-opened cut from elbows and doctor stoppage?!

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10-16-2013 , 07:08 PM

#15604

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

http://www.mmafighting.com/2013/10/1...p-ive-ever-had

Nelson saying his camp was terrible, sounds like thats 1U down the drain.......

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10-16-2013 , 10:17 PM

#15605

kingofcool

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Lombard told Ariel Helwani that his cut has been pretty brutal and that he wants to fight again at MW. In case anyone wants to know.

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10-16-2013 , 11:13 PM

#15606

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Lol, I find it funny that Lombard was once the man supposed to dethrone Anderson.

To bad he had a tough cut, was excited to see him at WW.

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10-16-2013 , 11:20 PM

#15607

anteatereater

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,977

also, why would he divulge that info before the fight? same with roy.

Last edited by anteatereater; 10-16-2013 at 11:26 PM.

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10-17-2013 , 12:19 AM

#15608

just_mo

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Noons down to -160. If he keeps dropping, he's kind of tempting to bet here. He's better than Sot on the feet and I don't think Sot has the takedown chops to grapple with Noons here?

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10-17-2013 , 01:27 AM

#15609

SwoopAE

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Guess i'm not playing Lombard or Nelson then with their camp news. I do have Nelson in my super longshot to win 27.5u parlay but it's a small outlay so whatever

Going to put my Boetsch bet down today and maybe some of the others

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10-17-2013 , 01:37 AM

#15610

SwoopAE

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In addition to my 8u Gonzaga

Just added

2.6u Boetsch
0.75u Horiguchi
0.75u Amagov
0.5u Rio
0.5u GSot
0.5u JDS

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10-17-2013 , 03:22 AM

#15611

Swiiftx

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What do you guys think happens after Cain JDS III? If one guy wins, then that's that for the rest of their careers? No more title fights unless the other guy isn't a champion? I think 3 fights is the perfect number, no need to go for 4, but the division is so thin that if either guy wins, there won't be many contenders left and basically after a while, either one will be fighting and beating bums.

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10-17-2013 , 04:05 AM

#15612

SwoopAE

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It's not over at 3 fights. The loser will get a 4th if they win 3-4 fights, but it'll be in 2015 at least. Then if it goes 2-2 there will be a fifth rubber match, or if it goes 3-1 the loser goes to LHW

If it's JDS that wins, Cain could even get a title shot with 2 wins, although I think if it's cain that wins JDS will need to win at least 3 to get one final shot

Both guys could make LHW though in my opinion given time to do so

Last edited by SwoopAE; 10-17-2013 at 04:12 AM.

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10-17-2013 , 04:21 AM

#15613

SwoopAE

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Just realised I have 7u on Gonzaga not 8. Oh well, it'll do.

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10-17-2013 , 04:25 AM

#15614

SwoopAE

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Increased Boetsch bet to 4u, average of -161

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10-17-2013 , 07:24 AM

#15615

SwoopAE

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Also adding a half unit on Sanchez at +545, considering the fight's likely to go to decision and Sanchez will land some offense, i'll take a +545 dog at that price since judges love him

Probably gonna skip betting Nelson outside of the one parlay I have him in although I prob won't be able to resist on fight day anyway

I just saw that since I like the price on all three huge dogs, a 0.02u parlay with all of my picks wins 190 units. So I put that on. I have a feeling I might hedge by the JDS over Cain leg if i'm 9 for 9 at that stage.

Also have a bunch of super long shot parlays that pay like 60-100u with 8-10 fighters for 0.05u each

Last edited by SwoopAE; 10-17-2013 at 07:45 AM.

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10-17-2013 , 08:25 AM

#15616

SwoopAE

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lol a degen friend of mine just had me place three $100 parlays to win 12-50k each with an assortment of 8-10 picks each for the card

Obviously I tailed them all for 10 bucks

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10-17-2013 , 09:13 AM

#15617

Swiiftx

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Gonzaga at +172, 3u
Dodson at -325, 4u
Boetsch -166, 4u
Lomard -178, 2u
Noons -160, 2u
Roy/Corm over 1.5 at -265, 1u
Sanchez/Melend o2.5, -251, 2u
Gonz/Jordan u1.5, -140, 2u

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10-17-2013 , 10:33 AM

#15618

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Sanchez +550 or Sanchez via dec +750.

Not sure which one to bet?

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10-17-2013 , 11:10 AM

#15619

Swiiftx

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It's only a 3 rounder, so I'd go with +750. Sanchez hasn't finished anyone in a while I think and Melendez isnt easy to finish. Yeah, there's the off chance of a freak injury, or something Sanchez sinks in a sub but the odds of that are very very slim.

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10-17-2013 , 12:12 PM

#15620

RunHotSports

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,899

My 'fun' bets... any just super awful?

Roy Nelson vs Daniel Cormier .50-->2.14
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Shawn Jordan .50-->.85
Tim Boetsch vs CB Dollaway .81-->.50
George Sotiropoulos vs KJ Noons .50-->.71

5 Pick Parlay .25-->8.75
Roy Nelson +428
Gabriel Gonzaga +168
Tim Boetsch -165
Hector Lombard -175
George Sotiropoulos +145

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10-17-2013 , 12:55 PM

#15621

Swiiftx

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I'd take Marq as the underdog and KJ Noons as a favorite, other than that it seems okey it being a long shot. Think Marq has a bigger chance than Soti has.

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10-17-2013 , 01:12 PM

#15622

PuntIt

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,242

how would roy nelson beat daniel cormier? cormier has no neck to get knocked out which path of victory would he do to beat cormier? cormier valasquez parlay is a steal.

also not betting on sanchez but hes a good bet at 6-1

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10-17-2013 , 01:41 PM

#15623

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuntIt

Anyone can be KO'd and there's a chance Cormier ends up on the ground with Nelson who's a very legit BJJ guy (Although after hearing about the camp I agree this time Nelson has pretty much no shot).

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10-17-2013 , 02:08 PM

#15624

just_mo

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Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

Sanchez +550 or Sanchez via dec +750.

Not sure which one to bet?

I split my half unit between both of these.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunHotSports

Don't think Nelson has any shot, others seem relatively reasonable even though I'm personally leaning Noons.

Nelson is a top pos grappler, he's doing nada if he gets taken down by DC.