everyone made weight in japan except:

Diego Sanchez (158 lbs.)

Silva doesn't look quite as good as i'd hoped at LHW
Struve looks WAY better than I expected, he's filling out nicely, and Hunt doesn't look to be in the best shape. Like Struve more now than pre-weigh in.
Sanchez missing weight means i'll probably stay away even though he should beat Gomi in theory
Okami looks as big as expected compared to Lombard which is nice
Hirota slightly bigger than Yahya which is expected but slightly worrying, probably won't add more on Yahya for now even though he's got the better skillset and is a dog again
Kim looks to be in great shape, better than Siyar, so won't add more there but Siyar is a decent dog so whatever
Caceres looks to be in good shape so might make a bet there especially if I can get him at better than evens. His interview about not caring about wins/losses and fighting to put on a show is worrying though
Lim looking big and in good shape as well.
Could play Tokudome too more as a fade on Marcello - see where the lines move over the next few hrs, i'm hoping to get a good price to add more on Struve and maybe add Caceres, Tokudome. Definitely staying away from Tavares now I think as well.

insane how struve can weight less than hunt

The important thing is Struve is slowly adding mass without losing speed as he fills out towards 265 - i'd assume his goal weight will be 275 or so, and adding 15kg of lean muscle, Struve will be one scary dude. If he can tighten his striking defense further and work on his jab, he's going to be a tough guy to beat. I think it's well documented ITT how much of a Struve fan I am and how much I want him to succeed - I think he gets through Hunt, but the next fight will be the one that tells us whether he's ready for the big time or not yet.

Interestingly, Struve has only gone to decision once in his 30-fight career. In Hunt's 7 losses, he has been finished 100% of the time. Hunt is actually 3-0 in fights that went to decision (Wandy, Crocop, Rothwell). Struve is 1-0 (Buentello).

So is Struve ITD -135 or Struve by submission +115 better than Struve -175 to win?

Yes, there is no sense in betting Struve SU IMO. Just don't see this seeing the final bell, too many defensive weaknesses in both fighters combined with excellent offensive abilities in their opponents. Been wrong before tho...

Bad time to be holding a Sanchez -300 ticket ://

Diego Sanchez Details Reason For Missing Weight

"It's complicated made a mistake in my distilled water cut," Sanchez posted. "Then in AM I cut all day last 2 lbs were not coming out period."

Sanchez went on to say that it wouldn't have mattered had he tried to keep cutting the final two pounds because "I had no more to lose I had been at it since 6 a.m. Lesson learned what sucks is if I was in our country this would have never happened. Can you believe they don't have distilled (water)."

The former UFC contender will forfeit 20-percent of his fight purse to Gomi for missing weight, but the bout will go on.

"Gomi better not be crying I missed weight, after I win because those 2 lbs cost (me) 24 thousand dollars," Sanchez posted. "If I could have cut it I would have "

1u Caceres
0.5u Bahadurzada
0.5u Yahya
1u Okami
1u Stann/Sanchez parlay

glgl gogo

Gonna stay away from Struve/Hunt I think.....if anything I'd throw a bit on Hunt as I think he could win a real bloody battle.

Is Stann Wand a 5 rounder?

2u Wandy at +250.
Wandy's chin isn't that shot actually, not in the Liddell teritorry and I think his combined game is superior to Stanns. As long as he fights like he did vs Bisping and not like he did vs Leben he has a decent shot.

2u Kazuki Tokudome
well because Marcello sucks, haven't even watched Kazuki fight, but he looks to be in nice shape and if he's mediocre he should have this easily. Marcello is possibly one of the worst fighters in the UFC at the moment, he's old and his striking defense is awful, he also should have lost vs Reza Madadi, who's bad as well, but got lucky with the judges.

1u Hunt at +169
Didn't think Hunt looked that bad at the weigh ins, I mean he always looks bad, just like Nelson does, but I also think he's the perfect type of fighter that beats struve in the offensive way(his sub defense sucks, though it has improved probably).

Bets for tonight:

Wandy via decision +704, 0.5u to win 3.52u
Wandy/Stann o1.5r -150, 1u to win 0.67u
Stuve ITD +101, 1u to win 1.01u
Okami +175, 2u to win 3.5u
Okami/Lombard go distance -105, 1u to win 0.95u
Okami via decision +320, 0.5u to win 1.6u
Lombard via TKO +215, 1u to win 2.15u
Rani Yahya +104, 2u to win 2.07u
Bryan Caraway +180, 0.5u to win 0.9u
Caraway via sub +715, 0.5u to win 3.58u
Alex Caceres +115, 2u to win 2.3u

Okami/Lombard goes the distance is trending up, that's the only thing I have my eye on to add at this point.

what are folks thoughts on Hirota/Yayha? I'm thinking Yayha grinds out the decision. I think there says a lot for more cage experience as well favoring Yayha. Hirota hasn't been nearly as an active fighter either

lombard by dec is +506
yaha by dec is +500.

i like em both at that price

yes.

i wonder if wandy would consider going for takedowns against stann. wandy actually has/had good ground skills (bjj blackbelt). plus he could ground and pound.

struve at -175 is a great great great deal... $1750 to win 1000 is easy money

Wandy does have good cardio, don't know about Stann but he seems to be alright in that department, sucks a bit it's 5 rounds though, so much more time for Wandy to get KO/TKO'd.

@anteater u sure its a 5 rounder? pinny is giving o/u on 1.5 rounds.

Added 1U Gomi due to Sanchez weight cut

Think I'm done, unless wandy keeps getting better

5u- Sanchez @ -300
5u- sturve/hunt IT'D @ -350
2u-okami/lombard not ITD -105
1u- DHK/sylar not ITD @ -190
1u-wandy @+205
0.5u- wandy ITD @ +601

it's 5 rounds

i see props on 5dimes and SportBet for "Fight starts round 5" and "Fight starts round 4".

the event poster shows "5 round light heavyweight bout" at the top.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...FUEL_Japan.jpg

Stann has been quoted as saying something like "if the fight goes 5 rounds, we'll both need plastic surgery"

Added 1u on O1.5 rounds for Wandy/Stann @ -112ish, 1u on U1.5 rounds for Struve/Hunt at -138ish, 1.5 more units on Okami, 0.5u on Caraway, 0.8u on Lim, 1u on Caceres 1u on Tokudome and another 1u on Struve plus another 0.7u on Wandy since the price got a lot better.

Hirota has better wrestling and standup...at even money I just can't say no to that against a pure grappler like Yahya.

Wand COULD theoretically exploit Stann by taking him down but I just don't see that happening. I think I remember reading somewhere that Wand has like one of the lowest rates of takedowns attempted in the UFC, something like 1 every 15 minutes. He straight up says he's in this for the fans and he knows why his fans love him.

4u Stann ITD -156
2u Stann/Sanchez parlay hedged with Gomi +200 because sigh fml.
Lombard by TKO +215
Hirota -115
2u Lombard and Tavares/Fukuda goes distance at even money
2u Tokudome +115
0.5u Hunt ITD +201
0.5u Bahadurzada ITD +335
Mizugaki decision -108

Gogogo

Just totaled my bets up

2.7 Wandy @ average of +227 or so
3.1 Struve @ average of -178 or so
4.9 Okami @ average of +180 or so
2.6 Yahya @ average of +105 or so
0.5 Siyar @ +250
0.8 Lim @ -265
1 Stann/Silva O1.5 @ -113ish
1 Struve/Hunt U1.5 @ -138ish
0.5 Caraway @ +190
1 Tokudome @ -105
1 Caceres @ +100
0.95u assorted parlays of my picks @ various prices

Prob wouldn't have gone as heavily on Yahya if I knew size diff, and would have gone harder on Struve when the price was better if I knew the shape he'd be in compared to Hunt

May add more on Okami and Struve, haven't decided yet. Pretty happy with the rest.