Edgar's TDs werent quite as good due to less muscle mass, other than that he's the same fighter at FW I guess

To be fair though, Aldo probably have the best tdd out of everyone he's fought. Maybe other than BJ.

Because strikes were nearly equal but Aldo was hitting way harder. So simpo. It wasn't a 2:1 score by any means (also don't really get that) and it was a very competitive round where Edgar had moments but I'm going with the strikes that are actually doing damage.

Only reason Edgar "didn't fight as well" is because he finally faced someone who was faster than he was and a better overall fighter than his recent opponents. Give Aldo some ****ing credit lol, this hatin is getting outta control.

WRT to possible Pettis/Aldo -250 seems like way too high but I agree that it seems illogical given the money rematch with Henderson is right there.

For Struve, seems like Struve by sub should be like +150 here? Which would be a better bet than -170 right? I mean Struve's probably not winning a decision since he'll get clocked in the face eventually and get KO'd if it goes long. Hunt's a proven sub waiting to happen and Struve showed improved fight IQ against Johnson so I can't imagine he's gonna come out with any game plan besides grab a limb ASAP.

Bendo-Melendez is happening so Pettis would sit on the shelf anyway.

I think Aldo-Pettis is a lock almost to happen given Pettis texted Dana during the PC and Dana brought it up. It's a sick fight.

It's funny, if I was to pick I would say

Pettis>bendo
Aldo>pettis
Bendo>Aldo

Aldo is waaaay more talented than bendo, but think with a good game plan and the size advantage it is all bendo.

As for pettis, I think he could beat bendo (close fight though) but against Aldo, they both have the same strengths (somewhat) and Aldo is faster. + with leg kicks and a bigger weight cut than usual who knows how pettis will hold up.

I hope Aldo/Pettis happens, Pettis has made me a believer in his last few fights, I was worried after the Guida fight that Pettis/Bendo 1 was a fluke but finally bet on him rather than against him vs Cerrone and got rewarded there. He seems to be improving again with each performance after a shaky start. Mendes has already lost to Aldo, KZ will get demolished and Poirier needs to get another win streak going, and Lamas needs another big name win although at this stage probably deserves it the most. Siver needs another top 5 win as well before he gets his shot (idk if Nunes is top 5 anymore but he prob was when Siver beat him)

Pettis vs Aldo
Lamas vs KZ in a #1 contender match
Lentz vs Mendes imo to get rid of one of them as a contender (Lentz obv), Poirier vs Swanson is already booked
Siver vs Guida

Give Edgar someone like Darren Elkins to build him back up if he stays at FW, they can't risk an ex champ having a 4-fight losing streak especially when he a case can be made he won all three fights he recently lost, and the majority consensus is he won one of the three (Bendo 2) and lost the other two narrowly. He can then fight the Lentz/Mendes winner, and if he beats Mendes, he can get a #1 contender match around the end of the year for a shot at Aldo in 2014 if he's on a 2 fight winning streak by then and Aldo is still the champ and he'll be on a 3-fight winning streak if he gets another shot.

That's my booking for the top 10 at FW. Pettis/Aldo for a May card with Lamas/KZ on the undercard in an official #1 contender match with the winner facing Aldo on a September-ish card, then have the Siver/Guida winner fight the Poirier/Swanson winner on that card, and the winner of that 4-man mini-tournament gets the new years card/january shot at Aldo, and then if Edgar's won a few fights he gets the mid-2014 shot at Aldo, assuming Aldo hasn't moved up to LW or lost by then, and assuming he isn't busy with a superfight against Cruz/Barao/Bendo/whoever the LW champ is by then

Best thing for mma is if Aldo moves up to 155 soon. Such a sick division.
Aldo-Diaz would probably be onesided, but fun.

Aldo/Diaz would look like Bendo/Diaz, Diaz would have nothing for him, might win r4 or 5 if Aldo gasses badly but i'd imagine he'd be too badly beaten by then and 50-45

Nate Diaz is not a top 5 lightweight, and never has been. He would lose even to a lot of the mid-tier grapplers.

On that note, I would LOVE to see them feed Nick Diaz to Demian Maia at some stage although Maia's on the fast track to a title shot and Diaz will be coming off 50-45 a loss to GSP soon enough so I doubt it's in the cards in the immediate future

Some upcoming fights I see value on

Benson Henderson vs Gilbert Melendez

This is going to be a 50-45 one sided beatdown. Melendez looked awful vs Thompson and Masvidal and has not fought the caliber of competition that Bendo has lately. Bendo is value at -203, i'd cap this closer to -300 or maybe even higher, Melendez just isn't as good as people think he is.

GSP -430 vs Nick Diaz

Does anyone seriously think this ends any way other thn 50-44 50-45 50-44 GSP? Should be more like -750. Diaz fanboys may even move the line closer to -350. I hope they do.

Struve -155 vs Hunt

I will probably prefer Struve ITD. Note ITD and not sub, since the prices will be pretty similar and there's a chance that Struve ends up mounting Hunt and raining down punches and while it won't end in a KO, the ref could stop it especially if Hunt gets gassed. Armbar or a choke are a bit more likely endings to the fight though, followed by Struve getting caught standing.

Machida -195 vs Hendo

Hendo is not fast enough to hit Machida. He's either going to go to sleep via a Machida counterpunch, or get 30-27'd imo

Nick Ring vs Chris Camozzi at ??

If this fight is at close to evens which I expect, Ring is a solid grinder and Camozzi's fundamentals are so bad. He's slightly bigger than Ring from memory but he looked very unconvincing against Cane and Catone. There's a chance Ring could be the underdog here. I think he will grind Camozzi out for a 29-28 or 30-27.

Diego Sanchez over Takanori Gomi at up to -200

Sanchez has had a lot of close fights with high level WWs. He'll be huge compared to Gomi, and is still a borderline top 15 guy, whereas Gomi has only beaten the lower ranked guys for the past few years and lost to anyone good. I expect Sanchez will tap him within two rounds.

Hyun Gyu Lim to moderate favouritism vs Marcelo Guimaraes

Guimaraes won a split decision over Dan Stittgen. Dan Stittgen might be the worst fighter in the UFC. Lim comes in well hyped and from what I hear well rounded. This should be easy

Alex Caceres to moderate favouritism vs Kyung Ho Kang

Caceres has some legit striking and BJJ at BW. He's showing a lot of improvement and Kang has never beaten anyone good and lost a lot of fights to nobodies on the local circuit.

Renan Barao over Michael McDonald

McDonald caught an aging Torres but Barao is in his prime. McDonald should get thoroughly dominated here and his only change is to hurt Barao standing early. Barao to -250 imo and I expect it will open closer to -200.

Dustin Poirier over Cub Swanson at up to -160

Poirier is really really good. He's a bit hittable and Cub has power, but unless Cub puts him to sleep in R1, Poirier's well roundedness will take him to the win here via one way or another

Schaub vs Johnson

Total flip, Schaub has better standup but a way worse chin. Take whoever is better than +130, or the under 1.5 rounds. I really want to bet on Schaub since he's way more talented, I do, but his chin has failed him so badly and in a battle of strikers... hopefully Schaub wins and gets Pat Barry who I would bet over him.

Paul Sass over Danny Castillo to -150

Sass should tap Castillo I think. I thought that about Wiman too, but Wiman is way better than Castillo.

Okami over Lombard at evens

Okami should wrestle**** Lombard more often than Lombard puts him to sleep

Wandy over Stann at +200

While Wandy's chin is much worse than Stann's at this stage which is important, I think if Wandy still wants it his technical striking is better and if it goes to a decision he'll win usually. He did decision Bisping not that long ago remember and we all saw what Bisping did to Stann. As long as Stann doesn't put him out cold early, I think he can win this. I'd cap this closer to +140 or so simply due to Wandy's chin failing him to many times - if Wandy loses, I think it'll be a KO in a fight he was winning a lot of the time.

Tavares over Fukuda at close to evens - slightly better LnPer of the two imo

Also if Mendes is reasonably + to win inside distance vs Gamburyan, I don't mind that either - I think he'll be able to KO Gamburyan a reasonable % of the time and if he's say +180 to win inside distance i'll get on that. I feel like this may be badly mispriced at like +300 or something due to neither guy being known as a finisher, but Gamburyan is finishable by elite guys, Mendes is an elite guy and Mendes does have power.

I don't know about all this -250 and +250 betting line stuff it confuses me, but I think Henderson is good value against Machida. In England Henderson is currently available at 15/8.

I don't know anything about Ronda or her opponent but she is 1/12 odds on so not worth putting any money on at all and Uriah Faber is also odds on in his fight against a guy I don't know much about. Anybody who knows more than me think there is any chance of an upset in these 2 fights?

i disagree with diaz bros not being top 5, i am obviously bias on this, but i think nick is most definitively top 5. in my opinion he did defeat Carlos Condit, who is probably the #2/#3 WW in the world right now, and i think Diaz beat hims 4/5 times.

Diaz probably loses to Mia/Rory though (think he has a shot vs Mia though)

as for Nate, harder to make an argument right now, as his only major wins latly are Gomi and a dumbass Cerrone, But his sub win over Miller was beyond impressive, and he did still put a beating on Cerrone. Also Henderson really was one of the Worst matches for him stylistically possible.


As for Nick vs GSP, i don't think there is to much value past -500 for GSP. I don't think either Diaz will ever become champion, but GSP dosen't have the chin of champions, and Nick does have better Jitz than anyone GSP has faced before ( and for the first time vs a good grapler GSP will be forced to go for TDs) Personally i won't bet it past about -400


EDIT: also would be careful betting against Gomi, think im going to fade this as he did impress me in his last fight (vs a top 30 lol, but still was his most impressive performance in forever)

I dont think GSP sweeps all 5 + 10-8's him. Diaz is just so tough and has a really unique style of fighting that frustrates people. GSP game plans pretty safe too so a 10-8 seems unlikely to me. Even if(when) GSP gets him down it will be hard to do 10-8 type damage vs a guy like Diaz, unless he cuts him good with an elbow or something.

rofl.

Seriously.

Yeah, can't really see any round where GSP would score a 10-8 round vs Diaz considering Diaz is very similiar to Condit in that sense that you can't just lay and pray on them, they have a very dangerous guard, submission attempts, elbows etc. Just compare Condits and GSP's face at the press conference, doubt anyone would think GSP won the fight if they didn't watch it.

Yeah GSP's chin sucks. Dude took a flush head kick from Carlos Condit and survived. Also lol @ thinking he beat Condit. Diaz fanboys are ftl so bad man.

Stann is gonna smoke Wand. That fights not gonna be close.

Sass finds random ways to grapple with people but I just don't believe in anyone who relies on grappling off their back in modern day MMA.

GSP's chin is fine, I mean it's not Anderson Silva, Shogun, Hendo class but it's fine.

Yeah, don't get from where people thought Diaz won that fight. It was competitive but it wasn't so close that one could argue that Diaz won imo if you don't count his "moving forward and chasing Condit" as winning.

Striker vs Striker, guy with better chin wins => Wand loses TKO/KO. Yeah, Wandy is the better technical striker, but Stann has the better chin, lots of power and stands and brawls which is the same way that Wanderlai fights. I think Wanderlai doesn't have the same good footwork as Bisping does and I don't think Wanderlai will/can take down Stann the 2 first rounds.

Agree on fighters who rely on pulling guard to win fights aren't going to be top 5-10 fighters or the future of MMA(when the talent pool maxes out and we reach equilibrium, I mean we wouldn't have someone like Jon Jones 10 years ago when MMA wasn't as mainstream, populare, decent paid that the real athletes join in). But for now, against people who aren't that good at submission defense, submissions specialists like Sass can exploits their weaknesses really good.
Now if we talk about strong grapplers who have a very heavy top game, it becomes another story for the future.

Menjivar is on the tail end of a good but not spectacular career. He will only beat Faber if Faber has a bad performance and he has a good one.

Rousey will submit Carmouche in round 1 with an armbar the same as she has to everyone else. Zero chance of an upset there, GSP/Jones/Anderson are all more likely to lose in their next fights than Rousey is, the only person who has a chance against her is Cristiane Cyborg Santos. Rousey is safe parlay material.

Also if you want to convert odds, betcalc.com has a feature, for example 15/8 is around +188 meaning bet 100 to win 188 profit for 288 total, minus is the reverse, so -188 would mean bet 188 to win 100 profit for 288 total.

I'm aussie so I use decimal but since a lot of the people in thread are north american, I convert to +/- in thread

regarding diaz and gsp and 10-8s, will anyone lay me +400 on $20 that GSP is awarded at least one 10-8 round by at least one judge? Obviously 50-45 is the most likely outcome, plus finishes are possible, but I think he can get a 10-8 round against Diaz

Alternatively i'll take +200 if we consider GSP finishing Diaz as a 10-8 round for purposes of the bet

You wasted one of your 12 posts on this? Edgar lifted and slammed Maynard on his back. He has less muscle mass than at LW, and while it didn't cause him to lose necessarily, it did weaken his takedown attempts overall since he had a less stocky/muscular frame than usual

just curious, would you handicap this fight any differently if they were fighting it at middleweight?

thx

Thought I'd share this, not great quality but craziest KO I've seen since tank Nelmark back at UU2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=2e6Tt7TdGt0

Skip to 2:20

Re: Condit/Diaz, there is no way that Diaz won 3 rounds under any judging criteria, or even the fight as a whole under Pride rules. He lost four rounds, and at absolute best, he lost three rounds, including losing the most one-sided round of the fight.

Nick Diaz loses to the following fighters at WW, assuming reasonable gameplanning from both parties

GSP
Condit
Rory Mac
Demian Maia
Jon Fitch

He probably loses to the following fighters and i'd take them at evens over him

Johny Hendricks
Jake Ellenberger

So that puts him at #8 already

He *might* lose to the following fighters and i'd take them at +150 against him

Martin Kampmann
Josh Koscheck
Mike Pierce
DHK
Erick Silva
Tyron Woodley

Hell, there are some guys in the #20-40 region i'd bet over him at +250, Aaron Simpson might even LnP him

I'd have Nick Diaz as the #7 WW (i'd put him above Ellenberger on record even though I think Ellenberger might beat him)

For Nate, I think he'd lose to

Bendo
Pettis
Maynard
Nurmagomedov

Guida (not even a LW anymore)
Edgar (also not a LW anymore)

Maybe Melendez but idk I think he's even more overrated than Diaz

and guys like RDA, Varner, Miller (results of their last fight aside) and Rustam Khabilov would all have a decent chance against him

I'd have Nate beating all but 4 current LWs at evens, but it would be 6 if Guida and Edgar were still LWs.

Or maybe stay away from overrated K1 roid freaks.

Who still thinks Overeem is the best striker in the world because he gained 60 pounds of muscle mass?

He is still the best HW striker in the world.

He is not the best HW mma fighter in the world.

Striking =/= winning.

He was just outstruck by Bigfoot. Werdum had him on his bike more than once. This Overeem is the best striker ever talk is, and always was, a farce. DC just used his boxing and he just beat on Bigfoot. Why did Overeem feel it necessary to spend the second round on the ground if he was so dominate standing? Bigfoot answered that question early in the third.

It's not only about muscle mass(and certainly isn't the fact the reason he didn't slam Aldo same way he slammed Maynard) when you slam people but more about positioning and knowing the right techniques and being able to get into those positions.
The reason he could slam Maynard that way is because Maynard is slower than Aldo, especially after Maynard gassed after the first round beatdown he put on Edgar, it was a lot easier for Edgar to get into the double leg/under the waist grip and slam Maynard. Aldo was too fast for Edgar to get a double leg/full grip.
He did however, get his back once and slammed him that way so it was definitely not about forcing takedowns, which Edgar has never done. He takes downs people with his speed and technique, in this fight we saw that he didn't have that speed advantage that he usually enjoys and catches people off guard that way.

Point is, him losing weight didn't effect his takedowns to the degree he wasn't able to slam Aldo because he didn't have muscle mass but because he was too slow to get into the right position, which is usually faint, duck under and get a grip under waist and slam.