Am I crazy for thinking Bisping might be a bet, if it goes over 2.5-3? One part of me says, if he gameplans correctly and takedowns Vitor a bunch of the time and survives round 1 and then proceeds to simply outwork vitor, he might have a good chance. I really don't know in what shape Vitor is mentally and physically after losing a title shot. Like, is he in forrests mindset that he'll never get a shot at the title and is just fighting for money(where's his motivation?)or he is preparing hard. I think some elite fighters who where once at the top and can't get there anymore, find it hard training hard for a fight and motivate oneself(Bj Penn, Griffin, Shogun)? But then again, Bisping both got caught against stann and wandy and getting caught by vitor is like 10x worse since he's a better finisher than both of em.

I'm already on Penn fight goes the distance.

I like BIsping against Belfort. I think he will outwork him on the feet and can get takedowns if he wants to.

man i hope this sickness spreads and you guys keep pounding the bisping and okami lines. honestly i think vitor -150 was dcent value already, and if this kind of steam keeps up it could be a plus price for the phenom which is like blowing my mind ridic value.

as for belcher/okami, i felt the opening line was set pretty correct, but if u guys keep betting down okami and belcher gets to the +150 range i think he'll be a decent bet. Belcher has been hungry and has the size and toolset to make a title run if they cherrypick guys he can beat. Okami's contendership is over and i feel like he's beginning the downslope of his career, and is a fairly good opening for belcher to crack his way into elite status.

I dont like davis m300. No striking and forrest is a volume striker and huge guy if he drills tdd and can keep it standing for 8 of 15 mins he can win. I might like fight goes the distance if its at close to evens.

Also am I the only one who thinks ryan bader might beat phil davis if they fought? I just dont see davis getting to a title shot or beating any of jones machida hendo evans ever. Sure hes a fav over past his prime forrest but meh.

Griffin has no way to deal with Davis' grappling game that I can see. Ortiz was taking him down when he was closer to his prime so how the hell is he going to stop Davis' shot no that he doesn't give a **** about his career?

Davis outwrestles Bader too.

As for Okami, prime Okami vs prime Belcher I'm taking Okami and not thinking twice. Right now, it's questionable. I don't think I'm confident enough to bet it. Not sure why you think Belfort is such a slam dunk over Bisping though, djskyy.

Forrest seems confident against wrestlers. Not sure if that's worth anything. He said about the Chael fight that he thought it was a good match-up for him. Now he takes another wrestler after that falls through.

It's hard to say how good his TDD is since he's hardly fought any wrestlers who tried to take him down a lot other than Tito. He probably thinks he's got a decent chance to keep it standing and outpoint Davis. Better than his chances of surviving the strikers at 205.

Sonnen was not as big of a lock as Davis just because Forrest has a decent sub game from his back. But Davis is a totally different animal, no way is he getting triangled so Griffin is gonna be on his back for 15m IMO.

Vitor obv can win via stoppage, but I also think he's got a decent shot at winning even if it goes the distance, just by landing more significant strikes than Bisping, causing more damage, etc. This is obv only if he doesn't gas horribly. I don't think this is a situation where one fighter is a lock if it goes the distance. Hell, Wandy won a decision over Bisping not that long ago. Also, can't overlook the fact that the card is in Brazil.

I think Davis = the nuts, this man is going to be a serious contender at 205 some day, and fighting a past his prime forest is a lock (I would be confident he could beat forest at his prime)

Already bet 5u on him @ -295

Also I think people are underestimating BJ in his fight, rory is a tough dude but BJ seems like he Is taking camp very serious and is motivated for his return ( probz won't bet as fight really comes down to how BJ fights, maybe a really small bet on BJ)

And for bisping/belfort, bisping should be hands down the fav.. Unless vitor catches him early bisping will pick him apart standing, and vitor has no chance to take down bisping when he starts to get beat up. ( not sure what line is, but I expect bisping by unanimous decision )

Nonsensical line alert...

Gustafsson wins by 3 round decision +135.

When is he ever finishing Shogun?

And another...

Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116.

When is he ever finishing Diaz?

Usually your break downs are pretty good but your opinion on this fight seems redic. Drilling TDD isn't going to help him stay off his back, unless you have top shelf MMA wrestling you aren't stopping Phil D's takedowns. He also has an amazing top game so if anyone is getting subbed it will be Forrest. I assume this fight plays out standing to begin, if Forrest gets the better of it Phil will take it to the ground.

Yeah, Ryan Bader MIGHT beat him but I don't see it as being likely, the most likely result IMO would be a submission win for Davis. Machida is a stylistic nightmare for him, as well as Jones. Rashad as we saw has much better striking and the skills to keep it on the feet. As for Hendo I see him winning that fight pretty easily in a similar fashion to the Jake Shields fight. You didn't mention Rua but I think he beats Shogun as well.

I agree he beats shogun. Also think hes a fav over forrest to ud him but no way im touching it at -300. Honestly I think hendo is overrated slightly but hendo would beat davis by h bomb imo too. If forrest hits 350 ill be making an odds play as it stands no bet I kinda feel like forrest wins 30% or so even unmotivated because davis is just not as good as everyone thinks imo. I like bendo to beat diaz a lot at current line but having trouble pulling the trigger since as an edgar fanboy I want to cheer against bendo even if its a diaz hes fighting.

Henderson is a great stylistic matchup for Davis. His takedown defense is mediocre, and his bottom game is nonexistent. Davis all day and all night there.

I don't think he will KO him(unless Shoguns chin is shot) but I think there's a decent chance he hurts him and then subs him like forrest did.

I also agree with the pro sayers on davis. Davis striking is pretty bad, but top A wrestling and I simply don't think Forrest has neither the gas tank or the TDD to defend takedowns for 3 rounds.

I just don't see any way he will hurt him enough to where he would be able to sub Shogun if Henderson's power wasn't enough to put Shogun away. For all his faults, Shogun's chin is the best of the best.

Not really on topic but anyone else think there might be huge value betting against Carmont in his next fight? I sucked out on him on this card (it was very close and could have gone either way but I had it 29-28 Lawlor personally). He could easily get a top 20 opponent next and it's not going to end well for him unless he gets a lot better, fast. He's in amazing shape physically but his cardio seems to be lacking and he just doesn't seem to have that killer instinct most top 10 guys have - and I don't think it's due to a lack of experience.

Doubt he gets much of an opponent after that performance. DFW himself said it was an awful fight so why would he reward Carmont with a step up and a big fight?

yeah I thought he'd have some potential and would be a decent bet on that card. I was wrong.

He's still awful. All show no substance

I guess. If he gets a lower ranked guy though he could be -300 so there may be value anyway if he's going to fight like that.

Yeh I see your point here. I had a big parlay on him/phillapou and feel extremely lucky for winning that carmont fight he looked dissapointing. yet i also feel extremely unlucky for the philapou fight being canceled giant lock wasted there.

idk, phillippou is pretty inconsistent and while ring is only a lower mid level grinder, he isn't a can and could beat costa on an off day. costa is def the fav there but i only think to the tune of -200ish or so

i ended up down last card because i couldnt have been more wrong on kampmann (more on hendricks than kampmann, i figured the fitch KO was relatively fluky and that kampmann would outstrike him with volume if hendricks couldnt put him out in one punch and was obviously wrong)

certainly not my best card, but fortunately i went pretty small on it so the losses were limited

anyway, on to the next one

Benson Henderson vs Nate Diaz

Diaz beat Cerrone because Cerrone fought dumb. Bendo beat Edgar because, well, the judges were incompetent, but it was close.

This fight could go two ways. If Bendo wants to stand and trade with Diaz, he's going to get outpointed. If Bendo uses his striking to set up takedowns, it's going to be a one sided beatdown with Diaz's only chance being to land a sub from the bottom, but Bendo's sub defense is excellent.

I see Bendo having one or two scary moments but as the fight progresses he will impose his will and land enough takedowns and ground and pound to win 3 or 4 rounds.

Prediction: Benson Henderson by Decision (49-46)
Bet or no bet: Bet, Bendo (-150, Pinn)

I did initially think that the bendo/edgar winner would become a dominant champ but i'm not sure anymore, I think Pettis might take his title if he gets through Cerrone.

Shogun Rua vs Alexander Gustaffson

Shogun's chin is legendary, his striking is excellent and his TDD and cardio are fading badly as he moves past his prime. This being a 3 round fight definitely helps Shogun, but he will need to hurt Gustaffson standing and probably finish him to take this. Gustaffson's reach and precision striking should be enough to take a decision, but Shogun can definitely finish him if he lands. This should look like Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva, but it may be worth a small Shogun by TKO hedge to go with a Gustaffson bet if you're going to play it

Prediction: Gustaffson by decision, 30-27.
Bet or no bet: Gustaffson is -210 on Pinnacle, but i'm leaning no bet for now. If I can get Gustaffson by decision at better than evens i'll take it, otherwise i'll probably stay away. He could finish Shogun, but Shogun's chin is excellent even if his conditioning isn't anymore.

BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald

Is BJ motivated or is he collecting a paycheck? He had the Fitch fight won until he gassed, then he had the Nick Diaz fight won until he gassed. I think BJ Penn is going to win round one if he turns up in decent shape, the question is, will his cardio hold? I'd like to think it will, but evidence suggests otherwise. I expect a close 29-28 here most of the time, and if BJ isn't here to fight then a one sided beatdown for Rory, which probably also leads to a 30-27 decision since BJ is hard to finish. Betting on Penn has burned me before, but i'm tempted to give him one last chance, only because he is +246 and I expect it to be a split decision coming down to who won r2 a large amount of the time.

Pick: Rory Macdonald by split decision, 29-28 28-29 29-28
Bet: Leaning odds play on Penn, because i'm stupid and don't learn from my mistakes.

Mike Swick vs Matt Brown

Brown has a lot of heart and is an amazing gatekeeper capable of FOTN performances... but Swick is too big, too powerful and too well rounded to lose this one unless he has any of the injuries that have plagued his career affecting him. Swick has never had a chance to realise his potential, but I think this is his time to make a run into the top 15 (which will end well before the title) if he's ever going to do it.

Pick: Mike Swick by TKO, R1
Bet: Swick to -220 or so

Brendan Schaub vs Lavar Johnson

Well this isn't going to last long. Schaub is very talented but his chin is really bad for a HW. Lavar Johnson is not very talented, but he's big and powerful. If he lands clean on Schaub's chin in round one, Schaub is going to sleep. If not, then Schaub will win easily.

I never thought i'd say this but Schaub needs to clinch, work for a takedown, and pull guard if he can't get one if he doesn't want to gamble. If he does want to gamble he's the better technical striker, but in a battle of strikers, Johnson has the chin.

Pick: I want to say Schaub, I really do. He's a much better fighter, but in a striker vs striker battle, pick the guy with the better chin. It all comes down to how much Schaub wants to keep his job, if he thinks he'll get cut with a loss, he'll find a way to win. If he comes to put on a show and chase a KOTN bonus, he's going to end up staring at the ceiling. I'm going to pussy out here and call this one a flip. I might change my mind before fight day though and will probably have a bet.
Bet: The bet here is on the under. Under 1.5 rounds i'd imagine will be the pinnacle line. Whatever that line is, i'm taking it probably. Betting on this fight not to go the distance is the play. I also will take either fighter at better than +130 or so as I feel it's a flip. I want to bet on Schaub kinda, but I will definitely take Lavar if he's a dog, and will also definitely take Schaub if he's a dog.

Ramsey Nijem vs Joe Proctor

Proctor is not going to take Ramsey down and that is a big, big problem for him. I think Ramsey can get enough takedowns to win a decision when both guys have meh striking. I still think Ramsey is pretty underrated and while he's still very green, so is Proctor. Both guys have real potential here but Proctor's problem is if he's fighting a wrestler who has marginally better striking than he does, how does he win?

Prediction: Nijem by unanimous decision (30-27)

Bet: Nijem to -200

Yves Edwards vs John Cholish

Edwards kinda sucks, but isn't a total can. I know i've seen Cholish fight but for the life of me I can't remember anything about him. That means he's probably forgettable. I guess Edwards is probably better than? I'm staying away from this fight until i've done more research though.

Daron Cruickshank vs Henry Martinez

And we have a battle of the can crushers! Neither guy has a good win on his record. Guess if either of them is +200 i'll play the underdog. Probably staying away. At first glance I leaned Cruickshank but that's mostly because i've seen more of his fights since he was on TUF. Chances are, neither guy will ever beat anyone significant in the UFC. Again, i'll refrain from making a pick until i've seen more Martinez fights.

Scott Jorgensen vs John Albert

Jorgensen has faced much better competition and should win if his chin isn't shot and his mind isn't in the wrong place after back to back losses. That said, if Albert opens at better than +400 or so, he could be worth an underdog play. I'll set the line at Jorgensen -320 and if I can get Jorgensen -260 or Albert +400 i'll play either side respectively. Leaning Jorgensen for the bet, but he could be overrated or underrated by a large amount since he's a) a big name but b) has lost badly in his last 2 fights

Pick: Jorgsensen by decision, 30-27

Tim Means vs Abel Trujillo

Means seems to be doing okay for himself so far in the UFC and Trujillo, while he looks like a scary dude and trains with the Blackzilians... well, he's 9-4 and he's never fought anyone good. Although i've never seen Trujillo fight, I guess that means I take Means by default to -200 or so, or reevaulate if the lines are a long way in either direction of that for some reason.

Pick: Means by TKO, R1
Bet: Means probably, unless he's a ridiculous favourite.

Bets I expect to make if odds open where I expect are Bendo, Means, Nijem, Swick and the under on Schaub/Johnson with a few maybes on the other fights.

Nice writeup.

One thing to consider is Nate's TDD looked very good in his last fight vs Jim Miller. I don't think takedowns will come easy for Bendo.

Jim Miller's takedown game is not on the level of Ben Henderson. Henderson is a far superior athlete. Henderson by decision at + money, book it.

Why does Kampann getting ko'd in 30 secs prove that he wouldn't be able to outstrike Hendricks in a vacuum? Kampann always gets tagged because of his mediocre defense and how he backs up, but I made a play on him for mostly the same reason and don't feel it was wrong at all. I felt if he lost this fight, this would be the most likely scenario it happened in, followed by a close decision that could go either way like Hendricks had vs Grant, Pierce, Koscheck.