Carwin is a badish MU for him he has a better chance against Werdum and Mir imo. Struve is live against Carwin, but has a better chance against most of the other top 10 HWs

I agree but Carwin could really catapult him, even in a L.

That's a Co Main on a good PPV.

By top 10 I assume you mean the back end btw, the top few would prbly smoke him

mir and werdum would be competitive fights imo and both are ranked in the 5-7 region along with carwin, with cormier at 4

the top 3 (jds cain reem) beat him but he's live against everyone else (cormier would be tough but he's live with a good gameplan imo)

Struve still has too many holes against the top guys. Mir would be a good one for him though, anyone who can tag Mir with some good punches has a shot against him.

Anyone have any idea where the lines are headed for the FX 5 fights where lines are out? I have little idea who are fan favourites, well known guys etc, are there any fights where you guys think the odds will move close to fight time?

A few books have Castillo - Johnson btw even though BFO doesn't show them. Castillo 1.81, Johnson 1.92. Lot of juice obviously but gives an idea of where the line will be.

Werdum may get tagged by him too, pace isn't his strong suit

I'd bet Struve over Werdum and Mir if he's enough of a dog as I suspect he would be, but would bet Carwin over Struve assuming odds were around where I think they'd be

That said, Struve can beat Carwin quality fighters one day if he keeps improving he just isn't there yet as a strong wrestler with a chin decent boxing and power is the perfect fighter to beat Struve (In Cormier's case though Cormier is a very small HW and that may be a problem for him vs Struve's range, whereas Carwin while shortish isn't actually a small HW)

I like Browne and Ellenberger this weekend. Have some other bets too but mentioning these because I have the bets down already. Don't see them lengthening from here. Ellenberger I like quite a bit, Browne barely qualifies for a bet.

Jeremy Stephens if he isn't a decent fav - he's declined a lot in recent fights but he's better than Yves Edwards by a decent amount still and I suspect he'll only be -150 to -160

Mike Pierce if he isn't a big fav over Simpson - Simpson is a gatekeeper to the upper level, Pierce is just slightly better than that

volkmann could be value over roller depending on odds, same with j. edwards and dodson if they're as big dogs as i expect, or if not, then potentally on the other side of both fights

Volkmann will prob barely be a bet for me. Lean Stephens and Pierce but not enough to bet, but I may bet it if you guys like the price. No lean on Edwards or Dodson.

Is anyone itt betting on Silva? Just curious

Pierce is my horse, I'm ready to fire on him again. This is gonna be his type of fight.

Why Volkmann over Roller though? They can both wrestle but Roller has better striking and power and a way betterr BJJ game.

I agree even though Struve won this fight was very close to a flip.
Seemed like Miocic was close to really finding his range and destroying Struve.
I was suprised Struve didn't use his reach very well to keep Miocic outside and Miocic could get inside at will.

I will hesitate to bet on Struve in the future.

I might. At what point do you guys think betting on Silva is +EV?
What is he now like -1200?

Average price around there. Seems like it should be +EV to bet him, maybe he should be closer to -2000?

Was the same in the Herman fight, Herman was winning the 1st round and then in the 2nd he gets destroyed. Basically Struve is a slow starter and takes a while for him to find his range.

It looked like Miocic was hurt in the 2nd. I couldn't tell what was wrong with him or the shot that hurt him, but he definitely looked in pain in the 2nd. Struve noticed and started turning up the heat and Miocic couldn't deal with it.

When Struve started working his jab in the 2nd it made a world of difference. I also thought his lead knee is a very dangerous weapon for guys that get inside on him. A waist-level knee for him is landing in the chest, and a chest-level knee is landing on the chin. Plus his knees have way more range than the average knee.

If Struve develops a Schilt type knee he could very well enter the top 5.

His leg kicks and knee's look so powerful and his punches are coming together really nice. I remember one kick to miocics middle right side I think it was, he looked really hurt after that. You can really see that his punches/kicks have loads of power behind them, not like KO power but more **** this hurts power.

haha it's the same **** every fight after struve wins

whatever, keep not betting on him as a dog against inferior fighters and i'll continue collecting money as he keeps coming in at + odds

that said, there are some opponents I wouldn't bet him against, but if they don't give him a step up in competition and his next fight is Mark Hunt (who struve will pull guard against and submit) or Cheick Kongo or whatever then yeah, Struve will continue to make me money

Bonnar is big, has a chin and decent BJJ, if he can somehow get silva down in 2/3 rounds and not get TKO'd he has a very very marginal chance. He also has nothing to lose and knows it. He's been in the cage with Machida, Jones and Rashad and has never been finished, I mean it's Silva but Bonnar can make a fight of it if he has the fight of his life.

I'd expect him to get picked apart in the first and TKO'd in the second but when we're talking -1200 territory I mean it's MMA, anything can happen and there's just so little value. If he was -500 it's a different story but the amount you would need to bet is just so astronomical to win anything that i'm just going to leave the fight alone and enjoy two of my fav fighters putting on a FOTN if Bonnar shows up in form or Silva doing what he does if not

It will be a 5 round fight, no?

No its 3 because short notice

Not betting on AS straight up, but the line for "fight doesnt go the distance" came out today, sitting at -245. I loaded up on that, even considering Bonnar's chin i think it should be more like -350. Very interested to see how it moves from here.

I agree Silva will be eager to KO or submit.
Bonnar will be super agressive and giving 100% and will likely make a mistake.
I will be ubershocked if this fight goes the distance.

Bonnar def has an ungodly chin. Still seems like theres value there.