Bought the wilder-fury ppv. It’s pretty obvious mma is such a superior sport

I do enjoy boxing but I say this to my friends that are boxing fans but mma fans. When you watch an awesome mma fight like Pettis vs Ferguson its way better then a great boxing fight like AJ vs Klit.

So much more variation in what can happen. It does seem like big mma fights are still on the outside of other major sports. Only Mcgregor really brings in that casual audience.

Solid card for me last night with my only bet being on JDS.

Would like to back Holloway but given the health issues he had going on its tough to put money down on him even at such great odds.

Shogun round 3 prop at +3300 and my biggest bet on JDS winning in the main made it a good night for me. About $498 profit for the card. I tried to get a live bet on Shogun after round 1 for $200 at +500 and 5Dimes kept updating the price and even though I accepted the updates four times it didn't go through frustratingly, so that cost me another thousand profit as far as I am concerned.

Would normally fire huge on Holloway and possibly one of my biggest MMA bets ever, might end up just going regular large-ish assuming he looks fine at weigh ins though. I make him a -300ish fav against Ortega maybe -2xx with the issues he's gone through recently

Going to make sure he looks fine at weigh ins before firing, I obviously love the -119ish available but am willing to get a slightly worse price to ensure he looks good/healthy prior to the fight and there's obviously a chance it may close as a pick'em too

I'm well documented as thinking Ortega is overrated and if he wins it'll almost certainly be due to a standing guillotine against Max with a slim puncher's chance to put Max out cold in one shot (5% imo) and catching him with a submission standing or getting his back on the feet or Max making some sort of error and getting taken down and subbed which is very unlikely (20%ish sub imo) and I have the remaining 75% or so split fairly evenly between Max TKO and lopsided decision. Might consider some Max TKO r2-5 props if any of the prices look good especially rounds 3-4 but most likely just going to take him straight up

Not Ortega dec -1000 seems like free money no way Ortega wins a decision anywhere close to 10% of the time i'd have it at more like 1-2%

Ortega backers should def back him ITD or be sub imo depending on price, probably sub, and Holloway minus the points at 5d might be better too if there's a big gap between that and the moneyline price as I don't see any scenario in which he wins a 48-47 type decision it's pretty much always going to be at least 49-46 or more likely 50-45 plus or a TKO when he wins

Gunnar seems somewhat tempting in the -140 range as well and if the Santos/Manuwa not to go the distance is a decent price I might fire it although it'll probably be -300 or whatever so will pass if that's the case but if it's better than -200 i'll play it.

One judge scored Usman/RDA 48-47. It would seem points can be scored by laying upon one's back and head butting the crap out of your opponent's fists. Judging criteria being unpredictable and the like.

I'm personally waiting to see where they set the total and probably betting the over for Holloway/Ortega. I think it's likely to go the distance. And I give Ortega more chance to win than many apparently.

i think im pretty big on gunnar this week, which is sad because brazilian cowboy is one of my favorite fighters. cowboy is the better athlete and definitely has a chance to spark gunnar like ponzi did, but at -140ish, i just think oliveira gives up way too many bad positions on the ground vs a guy like gunnar. think he finds a way to capitalize.

already have 2360 to win 2000 on max, 3400 to win 2000 on thiago santos, and 2710 to win 1000 on claudia.

i might like theodorou in his next fight. he just spams volume and is tough to finish, and against anders that might be enough.

I put $200 on Theodorou at the early price at +175, pretty happy now that the line moved to almost evens. Elias has a lame style that is not really entertaining but he often wins decisions for a reason. I like the value there, especially with Anders coming off a brutal beating.

I don't recall if you're American, Euro or from the UK, but may I ask where you make big bets like that without spreading the stake around in multiple wagers? Pinnacle, or Bookmaker perhaps? I'm just curious since I started making bets of that size on select fights and the options are relatively limited, mostly Bookmaker for me in the U.S. or spread it around to a few sportsbooks however it makes sense.

if you can't bet pinny, nitrogen is prob your best bet. you can't rebet fights but its still fairly big. now youre dealing with bitcoin swings though, too.

Cool, in my experience Bookmaker is the best for bigger wagers, but Nitrogen is another good option as well. I know they mirror Pinnacle's lines, sometimes adding 1 cent to them, but the limits are pretty big as well.

5d line for 5 rounds is typically -5.5 points so a 49-46 49-46 48-47 would still be a win Usman covered the spread under their criteria despite bad judging

By more chances do you think hes a bet at the current prices available? Market thinks he's high 40something percent to win

When he wins do you think it's by sub over 75 percent of the time and itd over 90 percent?

Re big bets you can get thousands on easily in the aus market but most books do restrict you except topsport which can have some nice props. B365 au have nice props too but from what I hear euro b365 don't take real sized bets

Gunnar line improving I'm def gonna consider him to win or by sub depending where lines end up cowboys been subbed by worse grapplers than gunni and while he has better striking I'm not sure it's Ponzi level dangerous

I don't like either side really for Holloway/Ortega at these close prices. I don't know who will win, especially with the x factor of Max's health issues and depression. I just think Ortega has a much better chance than certain people who are writing him off as an unlikely winner apparently do, not the market. I hope they set the over at 2½ or 3½ rounds- I think that's the safest bet other than seeing what happens live.

You know how many BJJ guys are currently champions in the UFC? A big fat zero. By comparison, 5 of the 7 champions in the men's division are wrestlers. Not only do wrestlers dictate where the fight takes place but when it is on the ground a high level wrestler in MMA generally has no trouble neutralizing a BJJ black belt for 5 minutes at a time. The only guys a wrestler should avoid on the ground are the super duper high level guys like Jacare/Werdum/Maia and those guys are quite rare in MMA.

Look way back to when Mark Schultz rolled with Rickson Gracie. Mark Schultz was completely green to submissions, and didn't even know what BJJ was and yet he was able to neutralize the greatest BJJ practitioner in the world for 20 minutes at a time.

I guess you missed the fight where he outstruck Edson Barboza standing.

Does anyone else feel that Max sounds "punchy" or possibly a bit medicated in interviews?

He can still look great on a scale.

I think you're probably right. It's hard to tell because of his accent and his nasaly voice but looking back at his interviews 6 years ago I do think there is a difference in the way he talks. It's certainly not as dramatic as how much Nick Diaz has changed since the beginning but he is showing small signs of being "punchy".

max has never come off as super polished in interviews. i'm gonna take a look, but hopefully he's alright. stipe is the one that really makes me nervous, i don't think he's going to have a good go of it when it's all said and done. it's crazy how someone like reem can sound as good as he does with all the damage he's taken.

i think its because heavyweights often get 1 shot KO'd and people like max and diaz probably take soooo many punches over so much time that it accumulates into CTE. its not like max isnt hittable. its unfortunate but probably the truth.

I love an Ortega/Valentina/Nelson/Manuwa 4-leg for all of the dough.

I think with Max Holloway the thing that nobody sees is the sparring that goes on behind closed doors. Hawaiians have a pretty macho culture. I don't think he's ever really been that badly hurt in the octagon, he pretty much outclassed everyone that tried to strike with him except for Conor.

How does one know if max's symptoms are from depression meds vs punch damage? And would that matter?

I rate A game Max as the favorite, but damaged goods Max vs. Tcity = bad things imo.

wernt there rumors of max getting KOd in training? he has a good chin im sure hes taken some beatings. i agree he doesnt seem to have taken much in the octagon.

Yes. I really like a healthy Max over Ortega, but I have no idea what we're going to see.