I'm a known Holly apologist and even I had a hard time scoring a round for her...

Khabibs pressure is unreal. He never gives you any breathing room what so ever. Such a bad matchup for Conor and less so for Ferguson (interesting to see his work from the back against Khabib and he does also push the pace). Conor might one shot KO him although he will struggle immensly with the takedowns and will gas out, so Conor is pretty much live r1-r2.

Courtesy of Dave Hagen and Chris Lee, ladies and gentlemen.

https://twitter.com/shaunalshatti/st...52458195476481

Had an abysmal UFC 219 betting wise.

I would imagine Holly Holm may go back down to 135lbs and challenge for the bantamweight belt again in late 2018 but that might be some time as her face definitely has to have time to heal & rearrange itself. Kudos for her taking up the challenge when few around her were willing to step up but last night was a clear demonstration of how seemingly difficult a fight against Cyborg is.

Superficially I'd rather see Holly Holm fight Katie Taylor over in boxing. Never knew lightweight in women's boxing terms is 135lbs.

Khabib vs. Tony Ferguson in the summer has to happen.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2017/12/...win-at-ufc-219

Holm shouldnt be challenging for any belt any time soon. She's 1-4 in her last 5. I know 135 is shallow and Nunes is a new matchup but she has to win at least two and probably three to deserve a title shot.

Only had Esparza last night at 3.6.

Caps off a decent year of betting on MMA for me.
Made £1494 with a roi of 11.75%

Had a good year exploiting casino bonuses and value betting soft books. So next year will be upping my stakes for mma betting and continue to just cherry pick the most obvious value spots.

Looking forward to 2018. I like Quinton "Rampage" Jackson at -145 over Chael Sonnen in the first bout of the heavyweight tournament at the big Bellator card January 20th. Chael is a blown up middleweight and Rampage has blown himself to a heavyweight. Rampage has good takedown defense and stand up ability to go with his power and if Chael can't get him down he'll likely quit against Rampage. Got it for 2.9 units to win 2.0.

Cormier and nganuo parlay all in

I'm strongly considering volkan as a dog. Dc will fall off a cliff at some point and any elite striker at hw is dangerous. Volkans personal issues are a distraction and I think gustafsson will be the next champ with multiple defences but I'm not sure Dc is that big a favourite.

I think ngannou knocks miocic out in r1 a lot but odds seem.about right and if stipe can survive the barrage he will probably win. He's going to sleep in the first major exchange a lot though.

My early takes on the UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi main fight card in St. Lous:

Jeremy "Lil' Heathen" Stephens TKO over Doo Ho Choi
(it easily could be Choi doing the KOing! Great matchup!)

Uriah Hall TKO over Vitor Belfort
(Uriah lacks the killer instinct for the most part, but I think that he will rise to the occasion against a violent opponent)

Jessica-Rose Clark DEC over Paige VanZant
(She may submit her)

Kamaru Usman TKO over Emil Weber Meek
(This one could be the Fight of the Night, as it is a great matchup of two finishers)

On the prelims, I expect Elkins to knock out Michael Johnson. It will be a war, but a short war.

The only way Francis Ngannou loses is if you take the cern large hadron collider, smash through the quantum fabric of the universe and hunt down an instance of that cage, in the river of possibility, that that happens.

Elkins by KO is an adventurous prediction, I love Elkins but he's not knocking out MJ very often. Hall TKO seems obvious unless he goes full passive but even then Vitor without TRT shouldnt have anything for him outside of the first minute

Usman might finish Meek but there's no lock on that too, I def think Usman wins but itll be ITD or dec pretty equally imo

Pretty tempted by Choi but hoping for a better price

@Balla if Stipe can drag it outside of the first round anything can happen, but I tend to agree that he's too hittable and Ngannou is too powerful. Stipe might come to wrestle, if he can get his movement going and get a takedown he could win. Interesting fight, I think Ngannou is the fav but not lining up to bet on him as a fav

Elkins not really got ko power.

Think if they exchange Ngannou wins, I think he also can take shot better, Stipe's chin is arguably weak, Reem almost finished.

The only way Stipe wins if he wrestles him for 5 rounds. Other than that I like what Balla said!

He only has KO power against elite prospects after having the crap beaten out of him for 2 rounds lol, that Bektic comeback was one of the least likely comebacks of all time. Elkins does so much with so little, he really makes the best of his limited physical skillset with great heart, grind and fight IQ

Looking forward to seeing some lines for the rest of the Choi/Stephens card. I'm thinking Usman minus points could be good, Choi straight up maybe. Interested in Hall by TKO or ITD, possibly PVZ if her line is good enough. Really interested in what Elkins/MJ line will be it could be anything from a pickem to MJ -300 and I wouldnt be that shocked

I am seeing it not so much due to the power, but to Michael's brawling tendencies. Elkins can land a nice shot on him in technical vs. brawl exchanges.

A+

I'd be very curious as to how Francis Ngannou would do against a decent heavyweight boxer.

I'd imagine the 'to finish inside the distance' odds will be very short in the Miocic vs. Ngannou fight.

Take another look at Stephens record. For all his talk bout power a lot of his wins have come by decision. Ho Choi is the more technical fighter and should get it done.

The fight to make is Khabib vs Conor. It's the fight I look forward to the most. Khabib is 14 on the p4p list and hasn't lost a fight! Who makes those lists? He is arguably the one of the greatest. Conor's ranked 2nd and has been chokd out several times.

Still he's done a lot for the sport but he's starting to look like a paper champ. He was chastising other fighters for not defending and he himself hasn't defended **** in 2 years.

Will it hurt his brand if gets dominated by Khabib? I mean Mendez was ****ing him up and lost because he gassed (no camp, not fit), imagine what Khabib would do to him?

Seems like Conor is avoiding him, but I think it's the fight we all want to see, nobody can stop Khabib, they don't even come close. Who thinks Conor has more than a punchers chance?

What would the opening price be?

Picked up PVZ +115, Elkins +150, Burnell +160, Hall -217 and Eye +106. I think I like the first three, I'm meh on Hall, and kinda not feeling the Eye bet.

EDIT: Oh, and as a Norwegian I reserve the right to punt a bit on Meek. Just hoping it'll move further against him

i feel like Michael Johnson is gonna destroy darren elkins man

Agree that Johnson will likely destroy Elkins, and think he should be a bigger favourite. Assuming the drop in weight doesn't affect him massively. He moves really well, unlike Elkins. Is a lot quicker, has power and good boxing. I just think he's better technically and physically, those combined should make him a higher favourite. Hall to TKO Belfort too, as long as he doesn't give Vitor too much respect.

I can totally see why Elkins would get blasted. My model isn't too sensitive to a loss or two to good opposition, but it probably overrates losing as many times to as good competition as Johnson has. That said I was surprised at how close they are in age, and Elkins does have a strange ability to win fights. Debated holding out for a better price and might come to regret not doing it. I just haven't had much success doing that in the past.

Regarding Eye I really do think its a good bet its just really hard to bet on her considering her UFC stint lol.

I don't agree that Choi is a more technical fighter than Stephens. Choi brawled for five rounds with Cub Swanson in that crazy fight in 2016 and Jeremy has been pretty disciplined in his recent bouts throwing hard leg kicks and sharp combinations without getting sloppy. I really like the value on Stephens at +150 vs Choi. I can easily see him winning by decision if it does go the distance or maybe getting a stoppage.