The guy fighting Travis Browne, do we just take him just because of the price and 1 punch and Travis is done basically.

The problem with Oleinik is he's old and a grappler

That said, I guess he did knock Jared Rosholt out, but pretty much all of his wins are by sub, he's the guy who got the ezekiel choke while mounted in his last fight to get the win

I want to fade Browne regardless but this is a fight he should win on athleticism and youth and size alone

Browne is utterly inept under Edmund but his TDD doesn't utterly suck unless he's gassed

After betting on him against Lewis though and the way he lost that fight from basically an unloseable position, never again, at least while he's training under Edmond. Scary how much better he'd be under Jacksons or whatever.

I don't think Yoel does get that belt, I think he's lucky to be where he is, he had a coinflip decision vs Jacare, was losing to Brunson before he won, should have lost to Tim Kennedy via refusing to answer the bell sitting on his stool and the Weidman and Machida fights were both close prior to the finishes. He's undeniably a beast of a man, but i'm not sure he matches up well with Whittaker. I originally wanted Whittaker as a dog, then took him as a small fav, then got off it and want him as a small dog again if it moves and if not might just leave it. Remember, Yoel is old and likely coming off PEDs, although there's a good chance he's still on them and just beating the tests given his age and physique but at some point the wheels are going to come off even though he's such a ridiculous physical specimen

I can't wait for 213, the TUF Finale card doesn't do much for me but i'll watch, but even losing two key fights 213 is still great.

If anyone is going to make it to T-Mobile today or tomorrow, my control area is on concourse level section 4. Say hello if we are not tied up running something on screen.

The guy fighting Travis Browne is good, but he's a grappling based guy who is over 40 and with bad knees. Travis Browne isn't what he used to be, but if you look at FightMetric he's stuffed 83% of take down attempts, which is very good.

I think there are two ways of looking at Travis Browne - one way is that he's done and washed up, but the other is that he's going to be super motivated after being beaten down and disrespected after the fight by Derrick Lewis and is fighting a guy that on paper he absolutely should beat. I'm betting on the second, personally, but obviously it's a fight and anything can happen.

I don't have anything for tonight's card.
Just nothing that really appeals.

Maynard kind of stands out at 4.0. He still has power and decent wrestling.
He looked ok in his last fight.
Ishihara isn't exactly a world beater and could have a bad night.

TUF 25 Finale Risk $1413.00

Justin Gaethje (+155) vs Michael Johnson $200.00 for $310.00
Justin Gaethje wins by TKO/KO (+250) $40.00 for $100.00

Jesse Taylor (-165) vs Dhiego Lima $165.00 for $100.00
Jesse Taylor wins in round 3 (+2150) $10.00 for $215.00

Drakkar Klose (+235) vs Marc Diakese $100.00 for $235.00

Brad Tavares (+105) vs Elias Theodorou $100.00 for $105.00

Angela Hill/Ashley Yoder won’t go 3 round distance (+180) $50.00 for $90.00

Tom Gallicchio/James Krause Under 2½ (+102) $100.00 for $102.00

Ed Herman (+150) vs C.B. Dollaway $75.00 for $112.50
Ed Herman wins by TKO/KO (+385) $25.00 for $96.25

Teruto Ishihara/Gray Maynard Under 1½ (+127) $75.00 for $95.25
Teruto Ishihara/Gray Maynard Under 1½ (+117) $50.00 for $58.50

Angela Hill/Ashley Yoder FOTN award winner (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00

Parlays:
Jordan Johnson/Marcel Fortuna Over 2½ (-184) + Jared Cannonier/Nick Roehrick Over 1½ (+100) $100.00 for $208.70

Tecia Torres/Juliana Lima Over 2½ (-407) + Aspen Ladd/Jessica Eye Over 2½ (-315) $313.00 for $200.68

Added a round robin by two-team parlays. Risk ~$27.50

Justin Gaethje/Michael Johnson bout will end in round 3 or 4 (+374)
Jesse Taylor/Diego Lima bout will end in round 3 (+700)
Drakkar Close/Marc Diakese bout will end in round 3 (+690)
Jared Cannonier/Nick Roehrick bout will end in round 3 (+700)
Brad Tavares/Elias Theodorou bout will end in round 3 (+900)
Jordan Johnson/Marcel Fortuna bout will end in round 3 (+900)
Tom Gallicchio/James Krause bout will end in round 3 (+600)
Ed Herman/C.B. Dolloway bout will end in round 3 (+600)

Whitaker is actually bigger than Romero, I think it's just that Romero looks so thick and muscular but he's actually not that huge for the Middleweight division. It's a 5 round fight so I do believe Whitaker will grind him out.

I just got 3u on Gaetje tonight at +135

Good luck everyone

And JT (-150) 1.5u to win 1u all bets at 5D let`s make that $$ gang !!!!

2-0 and a little over +5u , Hope you all made that $$ on Justin and JT.

Wow shame I didn't fire any bets after all this card, Krause/Torres/Taylor/Maynard all won and Gaethje did too although there's a good chance I would have bet the decision line rather than straight up for Gaethje. The only one i'm annoyed about is Maynard as his price was way too long against a lower mid level guy even though his chin is shot he's still fine offensively I should have trusted my instincts there

Missed the card but will catch the finishes in a bit, def going to wake up in time for tomorrow's card. I'm going to re-bet Whittaker at some stage seems like he's back to a pickem on Pinny now so I was right to get rid of my -125 I think hoping to get evens or better for about 5u then ill call it a card. If more money comes on Nunes it might be profitable to cash out my earlier Shevchenko bet at -110 for the 5% loss and take Shev at + otherwise i'll just leave it

Card started poorly for me, but finished strongly with Tavares, Klose, JT $ and finally Gaethje getting that TKO. A lot of us on other forums and live chats cleaned up betting Gaethje after that horrible ending to round 1 at + money knowing he could come back like that.

Nice work Jim

I got rid of my Shev bet and just keep the r-3 to 5 props as I think they're the most value. I do plan to re-bet Whittaker and maybe re-bet Shevchenko live after r1 tho

Give Justin his weight in gold, that dude is non-stop violence and heart, and also quite decent at the mic. Michael Johnson is no slouch and a pretty darn hard test for anybody coming into the UFC, I think there may be some easier fights for him in there.

Whittaker being bigger than Romero is something I just didn't expect prior to watching weigh ins. Will definitely be betting Whittaker again now I think.

Put 1.4u on Omielanczuk decision as if he wins thats probably how and he can definitely win if he can turn the fight into a grind or if Blaydes gasses. Value at +1400 imo

Also re-added 6u on Whittaker at -110. -108 available but this way I have the option to take a flat 5% loss if the line moves heavily against me and I want to get rid of the bet last minute. Decided against adding Shevchenko straight up I just have my props on r3-5 and might livebet her after r1 or 2 if she's losing and at a decent price but Nunes looks to be tiring

Will probably set my alarm for the Santos fight and watch from there as that's about when things get interesting

So i've ended up with being down somewhere between half a unit and a unit before the card starts due to cashing out bets to place them at a better price or due to changing my mind or lines moving against me and this is what i've ended up with

All base units

9.05u Santos -131 average

3.58u to win 20u on Shevchenko wins in r3-5 at +558 effectively

9.54u on Werdum +116 average
2.22u hedge on Overeem by decision +450

5.7u Whittaker -110

1.4u Omielanczuk DEC +1400

1.5u Miller DEC +400

Hey Swoop,

I don't want to be a d1ck, because I enjoy reading this thread and you are a big contributor, but I don't get your "option to take a flat 5% loss" comment. Assuming you're referring to B365's cashout function, where Romero would have been -110 when you bet Whittaker -110 (ie. a 20c line). Straight off the bat, you're looking at a 5% loss on total stake inc. cashout (10% loss on original stake), so if the line moves heavily against you, you will be cashing out backing Romero at like -130, which would equate to a 10% loss on total stake inc. cashout (20% loss on original stake).... whatever the result.

My point is, I wouldn't feel comfortably advocating a 'trading' strategy using a 20c line into B365's cashout function. Happy to corrected here if infact you are trading this elsewhere? Even if this is the case, Pinny's line is 12c, so you'd still be -3%/-6% straight off the bat

What I mean is b365 are slow to move, and you'll often get a cashout option for say $95 on a 100 bet even well after the line's moved against you

When I got rid of my original bet on Whittaker at -125 I expected to be able to re-take him at +110 somewhere but then it didn't end up steaming on Romero like I thought

Basically I made a mess of a few of my bets hence the starting the card almost down a unit off the bat but especially my Whittaker one this card, but appreciate the advice nonetheless. I certainly wouldn't advocate this as a general strategy either, but given the option of taking Pinny at -110 or b365 at -110 i'll take the latter in general (especially as it's not offmarket in that case and I do bet some offmarket stuff at b365 which = limited quickly if you're beating the pinny closing line too often) - the bulk of what I bet on in general isn't MMA, so being able to make some generally breakevenish MMA bets and even to some extent making some mistakes like I did with this Whittaker position is often good for the longevity of my accounts. I do bet on a lot of books but you're right that this bet was on b365.

In any case, cashing out is almost always a bad idea, but can be okay in select circumstances on b365 imo but a trading strategy certainly shouldn't be based around it.

Wait until fight time

Basically Romero has to shed all the water in his system to make weight where as Whittaker doesn't cut very much so looks fuller at the time of weigh in... come the next day Romero packs on 25 pounds and Whittaker maybe 10.

3u Browne by KO at -110 (I think, along with most people that he has regressed lately. But he's still really athletic for somebody his size and is a lot younger vs a 40 year old submission grappler. Browne doesn't really seem to have a problem with TDD so it seems to be a good stylistic matchup and assume Browne is a big favourite standing + heavyweight power (albeit I haven't seen much of Oliynik)).

8u on Blaydes vs Omielanczuk doesn't go the distance at -200 (which is insane pricing considering Blaydes by KO or SUB is -275 on my book.....PP if anyone wants it)

3u Whittaker by KO at +140. Feel when he wins it will almost always be by KO as he'll push a pace Romero can't keep up with for 5 rounds and he has good TDD/cardio/better striking. Feel there's some value here.

Considering putting a parlay on the three above at +660.

Nunes v Schevchenko cancelled

Lol Joanna asking to fight Schevchenko tonight. Obviously not going to happen but what a badass

bookie has refunded the Nunes bet,
01/07/2017 GBP 85.00 Single: AMANDA NUNES @ 1/1 Returns: £85.00 (back in balance)

belal muhammad, pettis parlay @ 2.62 looks ok to bet?

hate having got involved in Fabricio Werdum v Alistair Overeem now.

isn't werdum v Alistair more of a natural main event fight imo,

UFC 213 Risk $2989.50

Yoel Romero (+110) vs Robert Whittaker $200.00 for $220.00
Yoel Romero (+110) vs Robert Whittaker $200.00 for $220.00
Yoel Romero wins by TKO/KO (+221) $50.00 for $110.50
Yoel Romero wins in round 3 (+1200) $25.00 for $300.00
Yoel Romero/Robert Whittaker Over 1½ (-200) $200.00 for $100.00

Alistair Overeem (-130) vs Fabricio Werdum $260.00 for $200.00
Alistair Overeem wins in round 2 (+700) $15.00 for $105.00
Alistair Overeem wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+210) $50.00 for $105.00
Alistair Overeem/Fabricio Werdum fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ (+115) $75.00 for $86.25

Daniel Omielanczuk/Curtis Blaydes Over 1½ (-127) $127.00 for $100.00
Daniel Omielanczuk wins by 3 round decision (+1250) $40.00 for $500.00

Jim Miller (+205) vs Anthony Pettis $100.00 for $205.00
Jim Miller (+205) vs Anthony Pettis $100.00 for $205.00
Jim Miller +3½ points (-115) $115.00 for $100.00
Jim Miller wins by submission (+1235) $15.00 for $185.25
Jim Miller wins in round 3 (+2500) $25.00 for $625.00
Jim Miller wins by submission in round 3 (+3900) ~$12.50 for ~$487.50

Douglas Silva de Andrade (+265) vs Rob Font $100.00 for $265.00
Douglas Silva de Andrade +3½ points (+115) $100.00 for $115.00
Douglas Silva de Andrade wins by TKO/KO (+990) $40.00 for $396.00
Douglas Silva de Andrade wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+1800) ~$12.50 for ~$225.00
Douglas Silva de Andrade wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 2 (+2000) ~$12.50 for ~$250.00

Aleksei Oliynyk (+200) vs Travis Browne $50.00 for $100.00
Aleksei Oliynyk wins by TKO/KO (+813) $25.00 for $203.25
Aleksei Oliynyk wins by decision (+1200) $40.00 for $480.00

Brian Camozzi (+500) vs Chad Laprise $100.00 for $500.00
Brian Camozzi +3½ points (+180) vs Chad Laprise $100.00 for $180.00
Brian Camozzi/Chad Laprise Over 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Thiago Santos (-145) vs Gerald Meerschaert $145.00 for $100.00

Belal Muhammad (-129) vs Jordan Mein $258.00 for $200.00
Belal Muhammad wins by decision (+203) $50.00 for $101.50
Belal Muhammad/Jordan Mein Over 1½ (-235) $117.50 for $50.00

Cody Stamann/Terrion Ware Under 2½ (+190) $40.00 for $76.00

Trevin Giles/James Bochnovic Over 1½ (-105) $42.00 for $40.00

Round Robin of two-team parlays. Risk ~$27.50
Yoel Romero/Robert Whittaker bout ends in round 3 (+600)
Daniel Omielanczuk/Curtis Blaydes bout ends in round 3 (+800)
Alistair Overeem/Fabricio Werdum bout ends in round 3 (+800)
Jim Miller/Anthony Pettis bout ends in round 3 (+850)
Aleksei Oliynyk/Travis Browne bout ends in round 3 (+600)
Brian Camozzi/Chad Laprise bout ends in round 3 (+800)
Thiago Santos/Gerald Meerschaert bout ends in round 3 (+1000)
Belal Muhammad/Jordan Mein bout ends in round 3 (+800)