No play again but Caceres should win - then again he's so inconsistent it's never a bad idea to fade him at +270 or whatever, gl to those why bet Dy

This highlight pretty well why the way I'm modelling tends to favor underdogs. Since it weighs any wrong prediction by HOW wrong it was, it really hates saying "this guy is really really likely to win". That is perhaps both a strength and a weakness.

By weighing it by how wrong it was I assume you mean it factors in whether a guy lost the first two rounds and got a one punch KO in the third or a sub against the flow of the fight like that one? Interesting.

Ended up adding 2u on o1.5 rounds for Gomi/Tuck at +107, just because there's a good chance that even if Tuck wins I don't feel like he's the sort of power puncher who puts Gomi out in the first all that often. At the end of the day Tuck is a grappler and if he submits him early well done, but Gomi's chin isn't a weakness as far as grappling is concerned. Obviously I don't mind if Gomi gets a KO early either since I have him as a dog to win straight up for the same amount of units. I really wouldn't be surprised if this goes the distance if either guy wins.

Out of curiosity what does your model think the true line should be on Kim/Covington if you don't mind sharing maglame?

Caceres looking sharp.

Philipino has heart though.

Dy's RNC defense is... not good. I feel like i'd almost do a better job myself with no MMA training. He's just letting Cacares get under the chin over and over without fighting the hands... yet somehow he doesn't get the finish

He has a pretty short neck though it seems, so he's not that susceptible for the RNC. Should be a 10-8 round right?

This would be such a Caceres thing to do if he missed a spinning kick and got choked out by a boxer who can barely see

Not sure why Dy is attempting kneeing and head kicks against a taller opponent.

Probably a good stoppage, his eye was pretty clearly damaged. Unfortunate that it basically ruined the fight but Caceres was going to win barring a fluke finish and with a damaged eye that seemed unlikely.

On to some puncher's chance fights. Let's go Gomi and Asker, hope one of them lands a bomb for night of the underdogs

Ah no, he was still in there I feel like. Obviously Caceres wins 95% times, but Caceres wasn't dominating in r2, was a very even round.

Sometimes fighters need to be saved from themselves though. I mean look at the permanent eye damage Bisping suffered (granted from a fight ending head kick). Pretty risky to let him keep fighting for a 5% chance in a meaningless prelim he was losing. If it was a title fight or something then yeah sure let him take that risk and fight but in the grand scheme this individual fight doesn't matter much and it's not worth him suffering a career ending injury even 1% of the time. Look at what happened to Zach Davis on TUF a few seasons back, career ending eye injury. If he suffered an accidental eye poke or took another punch to that eye it could have been bad.

Come on Asker! Enjoying the serious business walkout to Hurt. Obv Harris is the fav but Asker should be value here especially since they're lower level HWs.

Oh well can't win them all

Down slightly now, Asker looked fine there but wasn't defending so stoppage was justified

Yeah you're right, should treat eye injuries more seriously than if he had a cut on the forehead etc.

Enough begging for bonuses after fights it makes the UFC look pathetic, it makes the fighters look pathetic and it wastes mic time that could be used for pretty much anything else.

UFC needs to implement a policy that anyone who asks for a bonus on the mic won't get one. The UFC also needs to implement an automatic finish bonus to replace the POTN bonuses, say 20k or whatever and then just give out the FOTN bonus rather than FOTN+POTN since it's so subjective which finishes deserve it on a lot of cards. Also means lower level guys making 12+12 will be fighting for the finish more which should make fights more exciting.

Rooting for Gomi, but I just don't see him winning unfortunately. Jon Tuck has a chin and I don't think one of Gomi's looping punches will do Tuck in.

Think its time Gomi retired

don't seriously see Gomi beating anyone in the UFC.

Oh I suck, Gomi is even more done than I thought

Down something like 7u for the card now, going to need DHK to save me, or at least get one of Saffiedine or Arlovski.

Gomi absolutely needs to retire if he's getting finished in r1 by Jon Tuck now. I didn't expect Gomi to win all that often but thought he'd at least make a fight of it.

It seems like he's milking UFC like Bob Sapp, go in to a fight and hope to land in the first 30 seconds, if he doesn't land and gets hit, turtle up and get choked out.

Added on 3u each on Kim, Saffiedine and Arlovski. I'll be pretty surprised if at 1/3 don't win which is about breakeven and I think we get 2 more than 0

Let's hope Saffiedine can keep it standing and pick him apart at range up first. Heaps of Saff steam, I just got +183 a few mins ago and he's in to +175 now. Was +230 earlier today. Kim back in to +226 from +275 too. I still think +226 is way too high, but makes me like that I took +258 for most of my bet even if it topped out at +275

Saff should be the bigger man in there and he's a good range striker just needs to keep RDA at range. I originally thought RDA was a 2-1 fav, but maybe with the size advantage he's a smaller fav than that.

Let's hope RDA doesn't do a Gastelum and starts running over bigger opponents.

Size diff not as big as I expected

Did not know Saff was an elite grappler i've always thought of him as a striker who just had submission defense. Interesting that he's happy to grapple with RDA, granted from top position

RDA looks more fresh than Saff. 10-9 RDA.

Close first, I have it 10-9 RDA due to landing more volume but who knows