Yeah after a bad start to the year I rallied hard and had some good cards in the middle, but had a couple not so good cards recently as well, I think i'd be back to being slightly in the red for the year on MMA. Fortunately some other sports going well.

I'm definitely going to be on Bisping in some capacity for 204, maybe as well as Bisping DEC as an odds play, +420 seems like a decent price for Hendo to survive the fight and I expect Bisping to win the decision 80%+ of the time when it goes the distance.

I'd be tempted by Omielaczuk but Struve showed more aggression vs Bigfoot, if he's tentative he's going to get decisioned by Omielaczuk probably, but if he's aggressive he should be able to finish him a lot. I'll probably just make no bet and cheer for Struve since he's one of my favourite fighters.

OSP should win, odds seem about right but i'll probably take him anyway people are probably underrating him right now, he was competitive with Glover and while he looked helpless against Jon Jones, everyone does pretty much so that's no big deal.

Probably won't be able to help myself taking Belfort by KO or in r1 or ITD or something even though without TRT Mousasi should beat him easily if he weathers the storm for the first minute or so.

Might consider Pickett by decision if the line is reasonable, if Alcantara can't take him down at will it'll be a close fight and the home crowd will pop hard for everything Pickett does meaning he's more likely to get the home crowd decision if it's close. Alcantara is probably the better fighter at this point of their careers but he can be inactive compared to Pickett from memory and Pickett is tough, I don't think Alcantara has the explosiveness to put Pickett away, he could bully him to a decision. Maybe I should just take over 2.5 rounds in this one at --165. I see a decision as the most likely gameplan to victory for both guys. I think I like that most, either o2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance depending on what the difference in price is.

Oh wow Brooks cost me 6.5u. Felt asleep waiting for the fight , so sad he hurt his rib and under performed.

Yeah I thought he looked great before he got hurt even tho he was playing defense mostly. I don't think he loses that fight without the injury and I also feel like he is underrated as a threat in the division after watching that fight.

There was no FOTN last night, sorry for my mistaken post last night. There were four POTN awards instead.

Still managed to lose money despite hitting a huge live bet with Alex Oliveira after round 1. -3.17 units net for the card.

UFN 96 Results

Live In-Play John Dodson (+100) vs John Lineker $200.00 for $200.00= -$200.00
John Dodson/John Lineker Over 2½ (-120) $90.00 for $75.00= $75.00
John Dodson wins by 5 round decision (+367) $35.00 for $128.45= -$35.00
John Dodson wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+1018) $10.00 for $101.80= -$10.00

Live In-Play Alex Oliveira (+150) vs Will Brooks $400.00 for $600.00= $600.00
Will Brooks -3½ points (-120) vs Alex Oliveira $90.00 for $75.00= -$90.00
Will Brooks/Alex Oliveira Over 2½ (-200) $150.00 for $75.00= $75.00
Will Brooks wins in round 2 (+750) $10.00 for $75.00= -$10.00
Will Brooks wins in round 3 (+1250) $10.00 for $125.00= -$10.00
Will Brooks By Decision (-120) $90.00 for $75.00= -$90.00

Live In-Play Josh Burkman (+220) vs Zak Ottow $50.00 for $110.00= -$50.00
Josh Burkman/Zak Ottow fight ends in submission (+235) $20.00 for $47.00= -$20.00
Josh Burkman wins by submission (+518) $20.00 for $103.60= -$20.00

Louis Smolka wins by TKO/KO (+325) $20.00 for $65.00= -$20.00
Louis Smolka wins in round 2 (+250) $15.00 for $37.50= -$15.00
Louis Smolka wins inside distance (-180) $72.00 for $40.00= -$72.00
Louis Smolka/Brandon Moreno won't go distance (-235) $94.00 for $40.00= $40.00

Luis Henrique da Silva (-122) vs Joachim Christensen $91.50 for $75.00= $75.00
Luis Henrique da Silva wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+335) $30.00 for $100.50= -$30.00
Luis Henrique da Silva/Joachim Christensen fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ (+110) $30.00 for $33.00= -$30.00

Live In-Play Andre Fili/Hacran Dias Under 2½ (+260) $50.00 for $130.00= -$50.00
Hacran Dias (-175) vs Andre Fili $175.00 for $100.00= -$175.00
Hacran Dias wins by 3 round decision (+125) $40.00 for $50.00= -$40.00

Live In-Play Shamil Abdurahimov (-110) vs Walt Harris $110.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Shamil Abdurahimov wins by 3 round decision (+330) vs Walt Harris $35.00 for $115.50= $115.50

Keita Nakamura (-115) vs Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos $115.00 for $100.00= -$115.00
Keita Nakamura wins in round 3 (+950) $10.00 for $95.00= -$10.00
Keita Nakamura/Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos fight ends in round 3 (+550) $10.00 for $55.00= -$10.00
Keita Nakamura scorecards = no action (-137) $68.50 for $50.00= Cancelled

Nate Marquardt (+190) vs Tamdan McCrory $75.00 for $142.50= $142.50
Nate Marquardt wins by TKO/KO (+340) $25.00 for $85.00= $85.00
Nate Marquardt/Tamdan McCrory Under 1½ (-115) $86.25 for $75.00= -$86.25
Nate Marquardt/Tamdna McCrory won’t start round 3 (-195) $78.00 for $40.00= $40.00
Nate Marquardt/Tamdan McCrory fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ (-105) $42.00 for $40.00= $40.00

Ion Cutelaba/Jonathan Wilson Under 1½ (-120) $60.00 for $50.00= -$60.00
Ion Cutelaba wins by TKO/KO (+100) $40.00 for $40.00= -$40.00
Ion Cutelaba wins by submission (+1120) $10.00 for $112.00= -$10.00

Curtis Blaydes (-221) vs Cody East $165.75 for $75.00= $75.00
Curtis Blaydes wins in round 3 (+975) $15.00 for $146.25= -$15.00
Curtis Blaydes wins by 3 round decision (+380) $25.00 for $95.00= -$25.00

Kelly Faszholz (-115) vs Ketlen Vieira $57.50 for $50.00= -$57.50
Kelly Faszholz wins by 3 round decision (+230) $25.00 for $57.50= -$25.00
Ketlen Vieria wins inside distance (+329) $25.00 for $82.25= -$25.00

Fights to end in submission under 1½ (+276) $10.00 for $27.60= -$10.00
No fights end in submission (+1276) $10.00 for $127.60= -$10.00

Louis Smolka/Brandon Moreno FOTN award winner (+450) $10.00 for $45.00= Cancelled

Parlays:
Curtis Blaydes wins by 3 round decision (+340) + Shamil Abdurahimov wins by 3 round decision (+325) + Louis Smolka wins inside distance (-212) $40.00 for $1,060.83 = -$40.00
Curtis Blaydes (-220) vs Cody East + Keita Nakamura/Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos Over 1½ (-180) + Shamil Abdurakhimov/Walt Harris Over 1½ (-118) + Will Brooks (-302) vs Alex Oliveira $50.00 for $228.21= -$50.00

Round Robin:
Faszholz wins in round 3 (+1200) + Blaydes wins in round 3 (+975) + Cutelaba wins in round 3 (+975) + McCrory wins in round 3 (+850) + Nakamura wins in round 3 (+1000) + Abdurahimov wins in round 3 (+925) + Dias wins in round 3 (+1500) + da Silva wins in round 3 (+1075) + Smolka wins in round 3 (+600) + Burkman wins in round 3 (+950) $225.00 for $27,126.29= -$225.00
-----
Total Loss= -$317.75

Nice almost card saver live betting Oliveira. I'm pretty angry at myself for doubling down on Brooks after two rounds just before he complained to his corner that his rib hurt, I was impressed with his r2 performance and thought he'd go on with it, then when he was saying he felt sick I knew I had messed up and was hoping for a split decision at best. There was a chance he was up 2 rounds though even if 1-1 was more likely. I'm fine with my Dodson bet, I think he narrowly won the fight but also expect if they fought a rematch that he would do better and would probably take him at -120 against Lineker every time they fight if they had a best of whatever series of five rounders.

For 204, there are a few spots I like. Just on these four so far, and I like them a lot and feel pretty confident on all four. I just need to keep the bet sizes relatively close and not degen on random prelims too hard.


1.3u Belfort/Mousasi u1.5 rounds -120

I like Belfort/Mousasi u1.5 rounds. Belfort has covered that in his last 8 wins and 3 of his last 4 losses and Mousasi has covered that in 3 of his last 5 wins and 1 of his last 2 losses. I figure Belfort will come out guns blazing for the TKO and pressure Mousasi which is good for me as it should lead to a knockout or a mistake/counter and a Mousasi finish most of the time

It could become a staring contest if Mousasi is inactive, but I doubt it as I expect Belfort to take the fight to Mousasi hard, and without TRT he'll be out of gas after the first round if he doesn't find the finish and he's shown bad defense in his last few fights if he Mousasi starts landing on him or gets a takedown and gets on top.

I'd be a bit more comfortable paying for all of round 2 but the lines arent out yet and I can always add more if Fight doesn't start r3 is -150 or whatever.

1.3u Pickett/Alcantara o2.5 rounds -170

Both guys are more likely to take a decision than anything else, Pickett on the feet or Alcantara on the ground. Both guys are tough and hard to finish, so over it is. I mean, Alcantara could get a sub or Pickett a TKO, but they're fairly evenly matched and Pickett's had 2 finishes in his last 8 fights win or lose and Alcantara has had 1 finish in his last 7 win or lose, plus neither fighter should be too dominant. If Pickett's TDD is on point he could dominate on the feet but despite his name he had one KO win since 2009 and Alcantara's last submission win was Trinaldo in 2010 and Trinaldo is a way better fighter today than he was back then, and Alcantara was better than than he is now. I think we just need to fade the Pickett TKO and Alcantara SUB and neither seems overly likely given both fighters recent history.

1.5u Bisping -225

Hendo is old. Hendo is very old. Hendo has the H-Bomb. Hendo does not have anything else to trouble Bisping. Basically, Hendo either lands the H-Bomb early, or Bisping boxes him up with volume striking enroute to a dominant decision or TKO. I may take the decision prop as well in case Hendo survives as I think at +4xx it's slightly undervalued, even though Bisping is more likely to finish due to it being 25 minutes and Hendo will be a mess after about 3 rounds if Bisping's winning the fight. Bisping is just a better fighter at this point and Hendo only has a puncher's chance. Bisping has the better cardio and won't gas, so it's just a matter of avoid the big punch until Hendo is tired and get your revenge... then it's on to one of the four killers of the division. I actually think Weidman is probably the worst matchup for him of the four, but Bisping is more live than he's given credit for against any of them despite being a dog to all four. I expect Bisping to put a title defense on his record here, because at the end of the day Dan Henderson has no business fighting for the title in 2016. He's still a dangerous man, but Bisping is a smarter fighter than Tim Boetsch and roidless Hector Lombard

1.3u OSP -155

Stat of the day, both OSP and Manuwa have a random injury win over Ryan Jimmo. OSP will have a height and reach advantage and he's shown reasonable durability, more so than Manuwa has. Manuwa has knockout power too, but OSP has more tools at his disposal and I think he may be being underrated because of looking helpless on short notice vs Jon Jones - I mean he was very competitive with Glover (and I bet Glover that fight) and at the end of the day his 4 losses since 2010 are to Bader, Glover, Jones and Mousasi, all arguably top 5ish in their divisions and he's beaten top 15-20ish guys like Manuwa like Feijao, Cummins, Shogun, Jimmo via injury and Krylov in that time. Manuwa feels more like the latter than the former, he lacks any big name wins and i'm not sure about his chin. Granted he's only lost to two top 5 guys in Rumble and Gustafsson, but they were brutal losses and his best win is Jan Blachowicz and a leg injury vs Ryan Jimmo, then Diabate and Kingsbury who are barely UFC caliber fighters.

At the end of the day I think Manuwa has to rely on his KO power whereas OSP is a more well rounded martial artist - not only that but Manuwa has the more questionable chin of the two. Manuwa's going to be out of his depth here despite the home crowd support, and OSP has done fine fighting against a hostile crowd in the past, he knocked out Shogun in Brazil and that was his only fight outside the US in the UFC to date.

I may consider Struve decision no bet if it's better than -200, but otherwise i'm probably done for the card. Omielaczuk decision could be value depending where it opens, but I expect Struve to be more aggressive like he was against Bigfoot, the Rosholt performance was terrible but hopefully Struve has resolved his mental issues. If he hasn't he'll lose by decision most likely, if he has he'll probably finish Omielaczuk (how the hell am I supposed to spell that)

Can you imagine Mike Goldberg announcing an all-Polish fighter card lol

Yeah Manuwa is on my always fade all the time list.

All three of his UFC TKO wins have been by injury or doctor stoppage, not by actual TKO. All of his proper KO/TKO wins came against regional cans. He's tended to wall and stall a lot in the past too, and these days judges aren't rewarding that like they used to.

OSP on the other hand is taller, younger, more well rounded and a better athlete. He's also got a history of being able to beat guys of Manuwa's calibre.

Agree with bets on OSP and Bisping.
Bisping movement and output should be too much for Hendo at this point I think he probably stops him in the later rounds.

OSP is just better all round then Manuwa.
I think he should be around -200 here.

Yeah i'm on the verge of talking myself into adding more on OSP and Bisping.

Mike Perry as a dog to Danny Roberts is interesting, Lim is legit and Perry knocked him out and is unbeaten (and is also possibly the best douchebag heel in a long time with his weigh in antics and racist cornerman)

Khabib got up to -195 briefly, back to --238 now. Tate up to -175 now from -2xx as well for 205, Alves opens as a small fav over Miller,

Edgar DEC -116 somewhat tempting vs Jeremy Stephens

Gastelum up to +153 looks great to me vs Cerrone, Conor out to -142, Wonderboy back at -164, hopefully the Woodley move continues

Since Lineker didnt make weight, I'm pretty sure UFC decided not to award that FOTN. Never bet on a FOTN where one of the fighters did not make weight, or often misses weight IMO, since UFC will basically never give that fighter a bonus.

Really unfair for Dodsen, not only did his opponent not make weight and he lost a super close decision (IMO he won), he also didn't get the extra 50k because Lineker didn't make weight. That's a huge swing.

Does Bisping @ -220 seem like a bargain vs the eventual closer? I would imagine he will close at least 50c-60c more?

how come everybody here is sure that hendo will lose?

After the upsets on this past card I certainly feel like being on more dogs. I sure didn't expect Smolka and Brooks to lose. Oh yeah and Burkman lost as well. I think if you want to play Hendo just play the under. Hendo has 2 rounds in him (being generous here). Either Hendo lands a bomb in the first 2 rounds or the fight is over and Bisping cruises to a decision or finishes him.

I remember the first hendo/bisping fight bisping circling to hendos right was a big mistake as he moves right into dans big right. Given the prob in his right eye is he still able to make te change of circling left this time around? Does it actually matter that much really?

This is a fight I don't care who wins either way so I might just put some on hendo for the sweat. If there is one guy who could go into bisping backyard and pull off some crazy miracle it's gonna be hendo. I'll also prob put a little on early stop by Dan if I end up betting it as well.

Hendo just ruined hector lombard with a crafty elbow. I think bisping is the favorite but I also think hendo is dangerous in more ways than just an overhand that bisping circles into within the first 10 minutes.

That first Bisping-Hendo fight was seven years ago though. Hendo has gotten much slower and more predictable since then (and much more chinny too, and he's gotten off TRT), while Bisping has changed coaches and become a much more effective striker.

With all the upsets we've been seeing lately I wouldn't be completely shocked if Hendo somehow landed the H-bomb and won. But I'd be at least a little surprised. Bisping has cardio for days and the much more reliable path to victory by just outworking and outpointing Hendo on the feet.

I agree with the above, basically Bisping knows the mistake he made circling towards the H-Bomb and will work to avoid that. He'll be much faster relative to Hendo compared to the first fight and has improved striking since then too while Hendo's has slowed as he's aged. Hendo still has power for days and could connect hard, but the cardio disparity is bigger too and I would be very shocked if Hendo wins in the championship rounds. Also, unlike Lombard, Bisping has a gas tank for 5 rounds and will not get tired trying to finish

I wouldn't be shocked if Hendo wins, but I would be surprised. I just think Bisping wins more like 75% of the time than the 68-69% the odds suggest so I think that is the value side.

edit: Just checked and Bisping -206 now on Pinny, definitely value there and i'll consider adding more on if it drops below -200 although i'll be shocked if he closes below -240 at fight time

I get that bisping has cardio but it's not like he's going to be grinding hendo exhausting him. He wants to out box him I'd think and it's not like bisping has always been known for his KO power. I imagine it's going to look like the first fight in that it's gonna be hendo in the center with bisping the one moving and using footwork.

Let's not forgot that hendo gave bisping one of the most brutal KO's ever and no matter how long it's been or how much each had grown or declined since, bisping is going to have that in the back of his head and might be a bit tenative/hesitant. On top of that he's defending the middleweight championship belt in his hometown. That's a lot of added pressure.

There has to be some legitimate concern how many shots of any kind bisping can take he did get obliterated by that shot from silva he squeaked by leites who might have less in the tank than hendo beat cb dolloway who has been a mess

yes he beat rockhold yes i called that but im also calling him losing hendo can still wrestle a bit if he doesnt get cracked and that could lead to GnP

Penn apparently out of the Lamas fight

Never really made sense to me, Lamas is dangerous but is not a draw.

I did think Penn may have had value at +4xx but he got bet all the way in to like +280 before the fight was cancelled

I'm still tempted to put a little bit on Bisping UD at +445 as an odds play but I do think he eventually finishes Hendo more often than not. In 3 rounds i'd love the decision play. I'll wait and see weigh ins for any more bets I guess, just have the four so far and i'm happy with all of them

would it make sense if hendo started to circle his right hand to bisping's face?

Bektic ITD might make sense vs Doane. 5 days notice, 3 fight losing streak (only one finish though) and Doane is fighting at FW when he is a BW. Plus Bektic is a very legit prospect despite the long layoff.

u2.5 rounds is +110, so Bektic ITD could easily be as high as +120, seems tempting for a -700 fav

Shoulda known this was Freddie Roach's dummy account

On a sad note, RIP Josh Samman, had the pleasure of seeing him finish Caio Magalhaes live and it was one of the highlights of the card.

Yea I saw that on Twitter today but it didn't say what happened. Sad to hear

Damn,

I enjoyed his style and had decent hopes for his UFC career. Obviously that's from a fans perspective and the real tragedy is shared by his family and friends.
Anyone know what happened?
From what I read about him in the past he was big into promoting smaller MMA shows and obviously had a passion for the business side of things.

RIP