UFC Fight Night 96
1u Lineker
7u Brooks
0.25 Smoolka
1u Christensen
2u Abdurakhimov
1u Blaydez

Euro FC

1u Marc Gomez +205

You don't really think Rousey is ever going to fight Cyborg do you? Rousey knows she will lose that fight and is sure as hell not ever going to go up in weght to fight her. Dana is constantly just spamming bull****, I wouldn't take anything he says for granted.

For the sake of Ronda's sense of well-being she should never fight Cyborg...if she can't handle the aftermath of losing to Holly Holm then the likelihood of losing to Cyborg is going to make her extremely depressed at the very least.

Would love Eddie Alvarez to beat Conor Mcgregor but I don't see it happening.

I doubt it'll happen too but if it did i'd definitely watch.

I don't see any amazing betting spots on this next card

Even a year ago i'd have snapped up Nate as a dog vs McRory but he's so done, idk

Blaydes is kind of tempting he should have a decent size advantage. Maybe Blaydes ITD, his opponent's been TKO'd in his last two losses. There's no TKO line yet but ITD is -120, I assume TKO will be -115 or whatever given all of his wins are via TKO

I expect Smolka and Brooks to win easily but neither price is particularly appealing. Thinking Dodson via speed and Lineker being so hittable in the main event, Lineker has to win by KO to win this. I'm still skeptical that anyone other than Mighty Mouse (or Cruz) could outstrike Dodson standing. I expect Dodson to have the cardio to win at least three rounds so as long as he doesn't get finished he should win. Obviously Lineker can finish anyone if he connects hard, but Mighty Mouse went 10 rounds with Dodson and couldn't finish him and he's been knocking out legit guys like Cejudo and Benavidez as well as dominating solid strikers like Horiguchi.

No bets yet but I think i'm most likely to be on Blaydes TKO/ITD, Dodson, maybe a small Marquardt play, then maybe a Brooks/Smolka parlay.

Added
2u Brooks by Dec

Miss clicked a Under/Over Round bet had to buy off so now i can win .66u or lost 1.07u feel stupid

Brooks line moved to -295 , glad I caught it at -255 . Let's see how it closes

4 bets for me this card,

Fili 5 units @ 2.55
Dos Santos 3 units @ 2.32
Lineker 4 units @ 2.10
Multi - Brooks/Smolka 5 units @ 1.68

Oliveira didnt make weight for 5.5 pounds and the comission said he cant weight more than 175 before the fight, im loving this spot gonna fire 1u more Brooks by Dec and 3u on Brooks ML

Lets go

It's a bit dangerous due to his size disadvantage, but I think Thiago Moises is UFC bound while Zach Freeman will soon continue his career selling office furniture.

RFA 44 Risk $280.00

Thiago Moises (-280) vs Zach Freeman $280.00 for $100.00

Great bet !! Steamed to -430 that Moises line. Good catch.

Damn, wonder if I should just take the safe $50.00 freeroll on the dog at this point.

Weigh in thoughts

Yep, East is getting knocked out
Why is Cutelaba green? Oh, he's the Hulk. Good for him, I like it when fighters try to stand out.
How the hell does John Lineker move up a weight class then miss weight for something like the 5th time?
Speaking of, how the hell does Cowboy Oliveira brag about how huge he is then miss by 5.5 lbs, he's heading to 170 win or lose after this fight
Dias missing weight too, 3 fighters on 1 card. Dana not going to be happy.

2u Dodson -120

I think he's faster than Lineker and clearly Lineker didn't have the best weight cut again. Dodson will land at will on Lineker via having faster hands and it will come down to a combination of cardio and whether Lineker can land a big fight changing shot early or put Dodson out cold. Given Mighty Mouse didn't really get close to finishing Dodson in 10 rounds I just don't see Lineker doing it despite his insane power.

2u Brooks -3.5 pts -135

Brooks is a far better fighter than his debut with Ross Pearson showed and while Oliveira is huge, he obviously botched his weight cut hard so is unlikely to have the best cardio. The big scare here is whether Brooks can win the first round in my opinion, after that he should be able to take over. I may double down on the bet in live betting taking Brooks after the first if he loses the first round and Oliveira looks at all tired. At the end of the day he's at a size disadvantage but he's showed himself in Bellator to be on par with fighters like Alvarez and Chandler and Oliveira, while upper mid level in the UFC, has never beaten a top 10 fighter.

1u Brooks Scorecards no action -165

While I think decision is the most likely path to victory for Brooks, he's very live to both TKO and sub Oliveira, especially a sub and I just don't see fake Cowboy finishing him. He got puncher's chanced in the first fight with Saad Awad but has fought much more dangerous guys since and been completely fine. This will most likely be a push, I just don't see how Brooks gets finished here very often, and he's somewhat live to finish Oliveira.

0.5u Marquardt ITD +275 (got a 0.2u freebet for part of this, I have no idea why they keep giving me small free bets but i'm cool with it). Effectively risking 0.3u due to the free bet. McRory is finishable and Nate has power. Nate is washed up, but he's still solid offensively. Pretty tempted to take the under in this fight either way. In fact i've talked myself into it, I think it ends early quite often and u1.5 rounds is -117

1u Marquardt/McRory u1.5 rounds -117

Reasons above. Nate's chin is shot, McRory is coming off a knockout loss and Nate has power - unless both fight tentatively, someone should get finished in the first half of this fight pretty often.

0.5u Blaydes ITD -108

Big, strong, decent takedowns. It could become a stare-fest as it's a lower level HW fight, but if it doesn't I expect Blaydes to be the one swinging the hammer

0.25u Smolka -440

Long odds so small bet, but I don't see how Smolka who I think is the best offensively of the contenders who haven't yet fought Mighty Mouse loses to a short notice replacement. Unless Moreno's wrestling and top control is way better than I think, I expect Smolka to dominate.

In hindsight after making these bets i'm tempted to think I should have bet Brooks straight up, but I don't think he wins a 29-28 exactly often enough to justify the extra vig over the -3.5 pts. The decision is tempting but -125 is too short imo, I think Brooks is more likely to finish than win a unanimous 29-28 or split, so the -135 on -3.5 pts makes more sense.

I might make some more sweat plays tomorrow or if anyone has a compelling reason why any of the other spots are good.

The only time I saw this happen was when Anthony Johnson moved up from WW to MW and missed so badly that the doctors forced him to rehydrate prior to the fight so I think he missed by 14lbs as he looked like death at 191.
The actual fight was AJ taking Belfort down 3 times and all being stood up in 20 seconds by a crooked ref who Dana probably told to do so as a further way of punishing AJ. I believe he then gassed and Belfort got a sub? Can't remember... but AJ was cut right after the fight with prejudice.

I am ill that people can't make weight.. it's a huge discredit to the sport and for a guy to walk around saying he's huge just adds insult to it. Lineker never accidently missed weight at 125 he game planned to come in at 129 or so. But at 135 he's just lazy.

There's no excuse for missing weight, at the end of the day you're supposed to fight at a weight class where you can make weight, if not go up a weight class and if you're too small for that class add a bit of muscle but not so much that you can't make weight at that weight class.

I had a bet on Vitor vs AJ, from memory there were fast standups because the crowd would boo relentlessly any time AJ got a takedown and not too much was happening although they were too fast, then Vitor rocked him or something and got a RNC on the ground. This was TRT Vitor though, and while Rumble was huge he wasn't quite the monster we know today.

TRT Vitor vs current Rumble would be fantastic, although current Vitor obviously has nearly no chance beyond landing a big shot in the opening exchange

Not that excited about tomorrow' card, Dodson/Lineker should be good and i'm a bit interested in Brooks despite his lackluster debut especially seeing how he deals with a larger opponent (granted who should have nearly no cardio due to a rough weight cut)

I think i'm done with my 5 spots. I'm kinda tempted to add on Nate straight up but if he wins it should be inside distance. Found some -110 on the u1.5 which is tempting too but I have enough on it already I think. Will probably just wake up for the main card and hope Dodson and Brooks crush it to lock in a winning card

Adding 0.5u Fili +160, partly because he's steaming in and it's a scalp with pinny and partially because Dias missed weight.

Also ended up with an extra 0.5u each on Brooks DNB -140 and Brooks -265 booking action for a friend.

Also an extra half unit Dodson -122 and same for Nate ITD +275 to make it 2.5u and 1u respectively

Euro FC

1u Marc Gomez +205

Gomez won +2u to start the day lets go

I kind of wonder if this one was just an issue with the new system though: did I read somewhere that you now only have ONE go at officially making weight? Not like previously when if you missed you had two hours to get under or something?

He missed by 0.5 pounds so this could just be a misjudgement on when to hit the official scales rather than a complete miss. Doesn't seem to be in the same league as his misses at 125 at any rate?

I feel like there are a lot of fights likely to end by TKO/KO this card so one last bet, 0.67u on o4.5 fights end by KO/TKO -120

I hadn't heard anything about only having one attempt to weigh in, that seems odd. Could create issues with fighters missing by 0.5, as long as they cut it within the hour or so allowed I figure that's fine, it's derailing their preparation the day before fight day etc. anyway.

Obviously Fake Cowboy's miss is way further off and inexcusable, if it was anyone else I doubt no one would care it's just that Lineker is now probably known as THE guy who misses weight even more than Rumble is.

5u Dodson

Only fight I really loved and had to bet in a rush to play a tourney today. He's just better in my opinion. DJ makes ppl lol bad. Dodson is a guy I'll take against anyone but DJ until he proves me otherwise. He's beaten Dillashaw is the past I believe. I'm actually talking myself into more on Dodson now.

Screw it, 12u on Dodson

I could be wrong, but I think because they now have to 1 hour weigh in period, you can weigh in a second attempt during the weigh in period if you miss but guys often show up 5 minutes before the end of weigh ins, and it's those guys who cannot take the time to try again. It all has to be within the weigh-in period as far as I'm aware.

I really like Lineker, this fight is close but if i had to bet Dodson i would bet Dodson by Dec lets go

UFN 96 Risk $2405.50

John Dodson/John Lineker Over 2½ (-120) $90.00 for $75.00
John Dodson wins by 5 round decision (+367) $35.00 for $128.45
John Dodson wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+1018) $10.00 for $101.80

Will Brooks -3½ points (-120) vs Alex Oliveira $90.00 for $75.00
Will Brooks/Alex Oliveira Over 2½ (-200) $150.00 for $75.00
Will Brooks wins in round 2 (+750) $10.00 for $75.00
Will Brooks wins in round 3 (+1250) $10.00 for $125.00
Will Brooks By Decision (-120) $90.00 for $75.00

Josh Burkman/Zak Ottow fight ends in submission (+235) $20.00 for $47.00
Josh Burkman wins by submission (+518) $20.00 for $103.60

Louis Smolka wins by TKO/KO (+325) $20.00 for $65.00
Louis Smolka wins in round 2 (+250) $15.00 for $37.50
Louis Smolka wins inside distance (-180) $72.00 for $40.00
Louis Smolka/Brandon Moreno won't go distance (-235) $94.00 for $40.00

Luis Henrique da Silva (-122) vs Joachim Christensen $91.50 for $75.00
Luis Henrique da Silva wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+335) $30.00 for $100.50
Luis Henrique da Silva/Joachim Christensen fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ (+110) $30.00 for $33.00

Hacran Dias (-175) vs Andre Fili $175.00 for $100.00
Hacran Dias wins by 3 round decision (+125) $40.00 for $50.00

Shamil Abdurahimov wins by 3 round decision (+330) vs Walt Harris $35.00 for $115.50

Keita Nakamura (-115) vs Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos $115.00 for $100.00
Keita Nakamura wins in round 3 (+950) $10.00 for $95.00
Keita Nakamura/Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos fight ends in round 3 (+550) $10.00 for $55.00
Keita Nakamura scorecards = no action (-137) $68.50 for $50.00

Nate Marquardt (+190) vs Tamdan McCrory $75.00 for $142.50
Nate Marquardt wins by TKO/KO (+340) $25.00 for $85.00
Nate Marquardt/Tamdan McCrory Under 1½ (-115) $86.25 for $75.00
Nate Marquardt/Tamdna McCrory won’t start round 3 (-195) $78.00 for $40.00
Nate Marquardt/Tamdan McCrory fight ends in KO/TKO/DQ (-105) $42.00 for $40.00

Ion Cutelaba/Jonathan Wilson Under 1½ (-120) $60.00 for $50.00
Ion Cutelaba wins by TKO/KO (+100) $40.00 for $40.00
Ion Cutelaba wins by submission (+1120) $10.00 for $112.00

Curtis Blaydes (-221) vs Cody East $165.75 for $75.00
Curtis Blaydes wins in round 3 (+975) $15.00 for $146.25
Curtis Blaydes wins by 3 round decision (+380) $25.00 for $95.00

Kelly Faszholz (-115) vs Ketlen Vieira $57.50 for $50.00
Kelly Faszholz wins by 3 round decision (+230) $25.00 for $57.50
Ketlen Vieria wins inside distance (+329) $25.00 for $82.25

Fights to end in submission under 1½ (+276) $10.00 for $27.60
No fights end in submission (+1276) $10.00 for $127.60

Louis Smolka/Brandon Moreno FOTN award winner (+450) $10.00 for $45.00

Parlays:
Curtis Blaydes wins by 3 round decision (+340) + Shamil Abdurahimov wins by 3 round decision (+325) + Louis Smolka wins inside distance (-212) $40.00 for $1,060.83
Curtis Blaydes (-220) vs Cody East + Keita Nakamura/Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos Over 1½ (-180) + Shamil Abdurakhimov/Walt Harris Over 1½ (-118) + Will Brooks (-302) vs Alex Oliveira $50.00 for $228.21

Round Robin:
Faszholz wins in round 3 (+1200) + Blaydes wins in round 3 (+975) + Cutelaba wins in round 3 (+975) + McCrory wins in round 3 (+850) + Nakamura wins in round 3 (+1000) + Abdurahimov wins in round 3 (+925) + Dias wins in round 3 (+1500) + da Silva wins in round 3 (+1075) + Smolka wins in round 3 (+600) + Burkman wins in round 3 (+950) $225.00 for $27,126.29

Curtis Blaydes wins by 3 round decision (+340) + Shamil Abdurahimov wins by 3 round decision (+325) + Louis Smolka wins inside distance (-212) $40.00 for $1,060.83

Good ****ing bet Jim lets go

Not sure how many elbows to the head that Cody East had to endure before the fight was stopped but "OUCH!!".

https://twitter.com/ufc/status/782369446027366400