Yea I was just being sarcastic, that's why I said give or take 22 units or so

I must have lost my sense of sarcasm momentarily when I lost my entire night's profit on Poirier.

Some thoughts for upcoming cards

Wonderboy back to -180. Woodley steams every fight lets hope despite most seeming to be on Wonderboy that Woodley moves back in to the -150 he opened at. I'm only going to lock it in way in advance if I can get -150 or better though as I think Wonderboy is -200 to -250 range as a fav here.

Nelson/Bigfoot u1.5 rounds is -200, so i'm hoping I can get Nelson wins in r1 by KO at evens or better. I just don't see how Bigfoot takes a shot, and Nelson's chin is too good. Bigfoot needs to take him down and quickly to have a chance. That said Bigfoot is +350, if Bigfoot decision is +800 or something then i'll definitely put a little hedge there

Barao/Nover u2.5 rounds is +125, so hoping to get Barao ITD at +130 or something. Yes, Barao had a bad performance last time out but Stephens is still a top 10ish fighter, Nover is a massive step down and unless Barao has completely fallen off a cliff at 29 there's no reason he shouldn't finish Nover as he's better everywhere and it's in Brazil with the crowd cheering him on.

Cyborg is unbettable obviously, if Cyborg in r1 is at evens then sure, but it probably won't be, and Cyborg will continue to crush irrelevant cans for no reason.

I think I like Pepey to beat De La Torre as a small fav but will need to rewatch some tape.

Leaning Felder over Trinaldo, his TDD is solid from memory and he's a small dog. Pretty crazy Trinaldo after failing on TUF is 9-3 in the UFC with 6 wins in a row. I do think Felder can be elite. The downside here is if it goes to a close decision it's in Brazil and don't bet against Brazilians in Brazil rule because loljudging

I may take Smolka ITD against Sergio Pettis if the price is reasonable. I think Smolka will fight for the belt by the end of 2018 at the latest. Pettis can hang with him standing but Smolka is the more complete martial artist and Pettis has shown he can be finished.

I think I like Dodson in a pickem against Lineker

Bisping over Hendo at -211 seems good. It's basically betting on 'Not Hendo by KO' because Hendo's not going to outwork Bisping over 5 rounds now that he's slowed down - he either lands an H-Bomb in the first 2 rounds or Bisping wins via dominant beatdown decision or TKO due to accumulation of damage and Hendo's declining chin.

Somewhat tempted by Vitor against Mousasi even though he's old and doesn't have TRT anymore especially if he gets above +300 or TKO gets above +500

Might fire Brooks by decision vs Cowboy Oliveira if it's at evens or better, although I might take -3.5 pts instead depending what the lines are as Brooks could finish him if he has a better performance than his first outing in the octagon

OSP or OSP by TKO is tempting vs Manuwa

Marcin Held should crush Diego Sanchez not sure if straight up or a prop is the way to go

How good is Alexa Grasso? Heather Jo Clark is way better than her 7-5 record and could be worth a play at +310

I want to see RDA's physique before the Ferguson fight to determine whether the Alvarez loss was just a fluke or if USADA has ruined him, it's going to be one or the other. If RDA is still in his prime I expect him to wreck Ferguson, if not Ferguson will find a way to finish him.

Gastelum seems like a solid play at +140 vs Cerrone, he'll have a side and wrestling advantage and can hang on the feet. Disclaimer I still suck at picking Cerrone fights even though i've got the last two right. To be honest if it wasn't so far away i'd lock up +140 now, I think Gastelum is actually a small favourite here.

Rashad Evans may be worth a look vs Tim Kennedy even past his prime. Feels like his style will match up well with Kennedy unable to ragdoll him and Evans might have the better striking and is a decent dog. If he's too far past his prime he loses, but Kennedy's coming off a long layoff too.

Weidman should crush Romero, I don't see Romero having more than a puncher's chance here. Yes, if he gets on top of Weidman he can finish him with ground and pound, but Weidman will have the higher striking output and one would expect has good enough wrestling to not get taken down. If the Weidman by UD line is good that'll be tempting too, i'm expecting a 30-27 for Weidman as the most common outcome.

DHK could be worth a look as a dog to Gunnar Nelson, although Nelson's younger and probably wants it more. Maybe if the price gets higher, because if DHK can get on top of Nelson he has the defensive skills to not get submitted and win a decision. Maybe DHK decision is the way to go.

Finally Rockhold vs Jacare, I think Rockhold wins this one IF he's fully focused on MMA rather than being a celebrity/model/A lister's boyfriend. I still Weidman and Rockhold are better than Romero and Jacare of the top four contenders at MW and expect them to win their respective fights - that is unless Rockhold isn't truly focused on MMA anymore in which case he'll get caught like he did against Bisping. He's a more offensively and physically gifted fighter than Jacare though imo

All good I lost my NFL week 1 profits plus some

Cyborg ever fighting at 135 is sounding more and more like a pipe dream, she's still 24 pounds over for this weekend's fight: http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/9/19...riday-weigh-in

That's a lot more than she was at the same point last time she fought at 140. Even off a horrific weight cut she should still crush this weekend though right?

From what I remember from the Leslie Smuth fight, just getting to 140 is super tough for her. I think 135 is just too far out of reach unfortunately. It's gonna have to be fighters wanting to go up an fight her. I think Meisha has said before she'd fight cyborg at 140 but I don't think she's rushing up there

just read ur post swoop n had some questions.

Is Cyborg one of these super locks that we might as well just bet whatever she comes in at even at -2000 cause she's just never gonna lose here and it's that "free money" or does mma just have too much variance?

At what point does Woodley become the value pick? I cant wait to hear you guys really breakdown that matchup cause I feel Woodley has a decent shot but I also haven't looked too much into the specifics of the fight.

nelson fights seem to go to ugly decisions all the time now, maybe that's just the matchups he's had idk, bigfoot get KO'd a ton I know and post usada he's just never gonna be the same. hes lost like 5/6 or something like that I can remember it correctly.

Man you broke down so much its great, but I don't have time to ask about it all right now let me look real fast at what I wanna ask before I crash for the night.

A lot of these fights I want to hear deep breakdowns of, which I know is a ton of work for you guys I enjoy it tho.

I remember rooting so hard for Hendo at ufc 100 cause bisping was such the heel on tuf that season and was so happy to watch that ko. Since then ive really enjoyed bisping but when this matchup comes along I find myself really wanting to see Hendo pull off some magic again. I wonder how hesistant bisping is gonna be in this one. for bispings sake I hope he decides to circle to the right this fight Fight being in England is cool and I'm really excited for his fight. I need to rewatch the first fight but in my mind bisping was having trouble landing on hendo that fight but I could be wrong. I find this fight to be bisping small fav but I think ill be on hendo.

being a vet and a huge tim kennedy fan I just cant/wont bet against the guy plus I think he handles evans.

what are thoughts on cerrone/gastulleum? seems like an odd choice for cowboy. going from lawler at 205 to kelvin has to be a bit disappointing for cowboy.

I'm sure I have a ton more questions but gotta crash n work in the am so ill try and ask a few more if ya got the time n don't mind.

swoop/ jim do you guys have martial arts backgrounds or just mma fans who do their homework? just curious, thanks guys.

Wow, this weekends main card is rammed with super short favs....

This might have a to be a 'tail JimGunn and collect' weekend

Is Cyborg one of these super locks that we might as well just bet whatever she comes in at even at -2000 cause she's just never gonna lose here and it's that "free money" or does mma just have too much variance?

I don't know enough about Lina Lansberg to answer that. To bet someone at -2000 their opponent can't even have a puncher's chance, I have no idea whether Lansberg has KO power or not. Trying to think of an example in WMMA where someone would be -2000, the best I can come up with for UFC level fighters is Joanna vs Alex Chambers (big fan of Chambers but she is not athletic enough and has no KO power; her only chance is a sub and she has no way to take Joanna down) or maybe Ronda Rousey against whoever has the worst takedown defense and no KO power at WBW. In men's MMA there's generally more of a puncher's chance, but at the same time the best fighters are much more evolved than in WMMA so there can be bigger skill gaps, for example GSP vs CM Punk, in that case GSP would be -2000 or more. I assume Lansberg is being sent in against Cyborg to lose but I don't think Cyborg is necessarily invincable as she's never faced the best women out there. Her best win is still Marloes Coenen who lost to Miesha Tate and recently (lol) to Dufresne who put on arguably the worst women's performance in the octagon in history against Marion Reneau or alternative Sarah Kaufman, who is top 10ish but not top 5 (although she probably was at the time).

At the end of the day i'm not betting on anyone at -2000 unless i'm sure their opponent has basically no chance of winning except DQ and Injury and I can't be certain that's the case here, so i'll probably bet on Cyborg wins in r1 if the price is reasonable as that's what is 'supposed' to happen and otherwise will just leave it alone.


At what point does Woodley become the value pick? I cant wait to hear you guys really breakdown that matchup cause I feel Woodley has a decent shot but I also haven't looked too much into the specifics of the fight.

I'd hit Woodley at +3xx I think Wonderboy is the worst matchup for him in the whole division, including GSP. Woodley will have to wrestle, or connect on the inside for a one punch knockout. Rory Mac showed that if you pressure Woodley you should have an advantage and Woodley can't stand at range with Wonderboy either in the same way you couldn't stand with prime Machida/Anderson at range and expect not to get knocked out. Wonderboy's looked better in every fight and is so far removed from the fighter who lost to Matt Brown I just can't see how he loses a decision to any fighter who can't take him down at will, and while Woodley's wrestling is good it's not good enough. In my opinion the toughest fight for Wonderboy would be GSP, because while Wonderboy has better technical striking GSP can hang with his jabs and set up his power takedowns better than I think Woodley can.

At the end of the day Woodley is a fast and powerful wrestle-boxer, but he's not so fast I expect him to outstrike Wonderboy and I don't think his takedown offense is good enough that he can spam takedowns without focusing first on striking to catch him off guard - I think a bullrush would just lead to Wonderboy sprawling or a headkick/knee KO. That said, while Wonderboy is better than he was, Brown showed the way to beat him - hang on the feet, pressure and get takedowns. That's what Woodley has to do, I just don't think he's going to be able to do it and I think Wonderboy is going to break him, knock him out and make it look easy. I think the true line is -2xx for Wonderboy and wouldn't take Woodley until +3xx, and wouldn't feel like it's fantastic value until +4xx the way that say Wonderboy at evens would be.

Re: Nelson look at the six guys he's lost to and ask which of them are prone to one punch knockouts the way bigfoot is - the answer is none of them, but only Overeem has a shaky chin of his six recent losses and Overeem has FAR better technical striking than Nelson, Bigfoot's is slow and plodding and while his technique may be better than Roy's, I think Roy's overhand right is actually faster than any strike Bigfoot throws with regularity and therefore at some point it's likely to connect, especially if we factor in Nelson being known for having an iron chin so he can walk forward and eat bombs and not get knocked out in order to deliver his own shot. For example, the way Arlovski and Barnett dropped each other, if there are any exchanges remotely like that, Bigfoot is going to sleep and Nelson is not.

Re being on Hendo over Bisping, if you're going to take him you may as well take the TKO prop, do you really think Hendo has the striking output and cardio today that he did at UFC 100? He has exactly one chance to beat current Bisping who is a better technical fighter than he was at UFC 100 (and Hendo is worse due to age) and that is land the H-Bomb early. It's very possible (i'd say a quarter of the time) but I don't see Hendo winning via sub or dec more than 10% of the time and probably substantially less often. Bisping has excellent heart and cardio for MW and Hendo is well, old and slow. He's still powerful as ever but after 10 minutes he's going to be out of gas and Bisping will pepper him with shots for the last 3 rounds or until he gets a TKO if Hendo doesn't get the early finish.

As I said in my last post I think Gastelum matches up very well with Cowboy. Gastelum has power, durability and good wresling/grinding. He's basically a much better Rick Story, and while Cerrone probably has the better and more diverse striking, he's also more vulnerable defensively I think. It's a pick'em fight but I really like the Gastelum price. There should be a decent size difference too, Cowboy is very big for a LW but is fairly small for a WW and while he's taller than Gastelum, he's not big the way that say Johny Hendricks and Uriah Hall are big, and Gastelum held his own and won those fights. He went to a split dec with Tyron Woodley too after an awful weight cut remember. Weight cut is a wild card for Gastelum but he should be confident he can make 170 if he gets his diet in order this time and fighting a smaller guy in Cerrone he can lose a bit of muscle if need be and maintain a huge strength advantage. There should be a HUGE raw strength and power advantage for Gastelum, Cerrone has range but can he prevent Gastelum from ragdolling him? I'm not sure he can. Remember, this is Cowboy at 170 not 155, and Gastelum is big for 170 and small for 185 so despite the height difference, Cowboy's effectively fighting a guy a full weight class bigger unless he can add significant muscle before the fight.

I don't have an actual MMA background although when I have more time in the future i'd like to do some basic training in BJJ or grappling of some sort and I think with decent training I could get to a respectable level. I have no desire to be punched in the face really, so no real interest in muay thai/boxing but lots of respect for those who do, while I wish I did and would love to compete I don't think I have the heart/drive/natural aggression needed in the octagon to be competitive and i'm not one to pursue things in general unless I can be very good at them.

I strongly disagree with Swoop that Barao is likely to finish Nover. I'm actually loving the o2.5 in this fight at -150. Nover has only been finished once, by a welterweight 6 years ago, and his chin, movement, and sub defense are all legit. Barao is not a precise striker, i.e. the type who catches fighters with shots they don't see coming, but more of an antiquated muay thai brawler. That said, he might catch him with some crazy kick like in the Wineland fight, but I'm more than willing to fade that occurence at -150.

Just placed my first few bets for this weekend's card, talked myself out of one and decided on two more i'm going to hit when the lines are out.

0.5u Barao -400

See below; would probably add more but don't like going huge on big favourites, that said I do not think Barao loses this fight more than 10% of the time, so it's value.

1u Barao ITD +115

Barao's getting a real step down here and while he's not a lock to finish Nover I do not see how he loses unless his mentality is completely shattered after the Stephens and TJ fights. I don't know why he'd fight again so quickly if he didn't have his heart in it anymore so i'm taking Barao to bounce back and outclass Nover who is a mid level fighter rather than the top 15 guys Barao is used to facing.

At the end of the day, Nover despite his potential's biggest win is Darrell Horcher and while he's bigger probably having fought a lot of his career at 155, Barao should adjust to 145 by putting on more muscle and should be fine as he settles in - Jeremy Stephens is very big for 145 as well and is actually a top 15 guy, Nover just isn't.

I'm not sure why I specifically think Barao finishes rather than dominates, it's just a case of I expect Barao to dominate, so getting him to finish at plus when he's finished his last 4 wins feels right and Gagnon/Faber/Wineland/McDonald are on average much better fighters than Nover, although granted the fights occurred one weight class down at 135.

1.5u Yahya -143 vs Tanaka

I think Yahya is a slightly underrated mid level grinder, the thing is he's like Darren Elkins in a way, he knows what he's good at and what his limitations are and will set out to grind out a win. I expect him to do that, and it helps to have the Brazilian in fights likely to go to decision in Brazil in case the fight is close. I actually need to watch more Tanaka tape as I can only recall one of his fights, he seems to go to have fights with talent below Yahya's level though, so i'm just taking the guy who i've made a decent amount betting on. Believe it or not Yahya is 7-2-1 in his last 10 UFC fights, the NC was a headbutt and he won the rematch, and one of the losses was to Chad Mendes and the other was a split decision. He has wins over Mike Thomas Brown, Josh Grispi when he had potential, Mike Hominick and Eddie Wineland and he's less old than you'd think given his tenure at 32. I'm shocked he hasn't had a higher profile fight recently to be honest, he's had 7 fights in a row with nobodies and before that was trading wins and losses with top 15 guys in the UFC/WEC. He'll come out to make this a grind, and unless Tanaka has better TDD than I remember (I don't remember a lot, but most Asian fighters do not have elite TDD) I expect Yahya to grind him out.

1u Burns -175

I'd bet more here, but i'm going to take Burns by submission when the line is released. Gilbert Burns is really ****ing good and while I don't recall many of Prazeres fights other than the Lazaro fight where he won a dubious decision, from what I understand he's a BJJ black belt/primarily a grappler so this fight is likely to involve lots of scrambles/grappling and Burns shouldn't be heavily outclassed on the feet. Burns biggest issue has been with fighters who can outstrike him, i'd assume he's happy to turn this into a grappling contest and it should play out somewhat similarly to say Maia vs Nelson, where one guy is a high level BJJ guy and the other is a world champion - similarly to that fight where Nelson might have a small edge standing but both guys are BJJ fighters and it ended up being a one sided ground fight. This could turn into a sloppy kickboxing fight, but hopefully it's a ground fight in which case i'll take Burns all day.

I'll take the sub line here if it's reasonable as well, say +200 or better.

1u Pepey -143 vs De La Torre

Both guys are pretty aggressive, I just think Pepey is mid level and De La Torre is lower-mid level plus it's in Brazil. I should probably do some more research to be honest, just had a gut reaction that Pepey should win this one. This is the bet I like the least of the four, but enough to fire it anyway. In hindsight maybe it's a half unit spot, but I can always buy some back if I do some more research and change my mind.

1u Felder +120 vs Trinaldo

I talked myself out of Felder against Trinaldo as a small dog, need to rewatch their last few fights i'm probably overrating the Castillo domination still in my assessment of Felder and the close Barboza fight. I can't help but feel like Felder is the value side and the fight is a flip or so. Actually i've talked myself back into it. Felder is big, is hard to take down and should have a striking edge. If Trinaldo drags him to the mat in two rounds he will win, but I favour Felder on the feet. One big issue here is it's likely to be closish and don't bet against Brazilians in Brazil etc, but the biased judging has been less of an issue in Brazil cards over the past year or two than it used to be. And now reminding myself of the Pearson and Cruickshank fights i've sort of talked myself out of Felder again. He should have all of the tools to win this fight i'm just not sure he will. Oh well too late I put the bet on and he's a dog, so if it's a pick'em and I can't make my mind up take the dog.

Other spots I want

Nelson by r1 KO/TKO when the line opens if it's say -130 or better

Cyborg wins in r1 if it's evens or better (it won't be though)

Burns by sub

Maybe Pepey wins in r1 if price is reasonable

Maybe Chagas (i'm finally off the Erick Silva hype train, later than most. USADA has completely ruined him). Possible with a Silva wins in r1 or first minute hedge. Maybe Silva wins in r1 if the price is good as if he wins that'll be how. DON'T LET ME BET BIG ON ERICK SILVA EVEN IF I TALK MYSELF INTO IT SOMEHOW. If i'm talking any Silva bets it should be the Silva wins in r1 prop.

Maybe Thiago Santos -3.5 pts but I really doubt it'll be bettable. He's being given a 'should get a highlight reel finish' fight after being thrown to the wolves on short notice against Mousasi

Sort of want to pick Ortiz over Jussier Silva, but just going to leave it alone. Would have hit the o2.5 rounds at -200 but it's -245 just not worth it even though I can't see either guy finding a finish often

No plays for early prelims, don't know enough about them really.

Value wise i'd say Yahya might be the best value of my plays or possibly even Barao -400, really can't see him losing unless he's completely fallen off a cliff.

aaand just read the above post by The Don; maybe the value could be in Barao via 30-27ing, I haven't seen many of Nover's recent fights. Do you think Nover is live in the fight at all, or just that he won't get finished? I was seeing something like a knockdown or takedown followed by Barao jumping on his back like he did to Brad Pickett way back maybe.

Hmm, i'm trying to recall the Nover/Held fight I know I watched it but it was so long ago. I know Held's a lot better now too, he would have only been 19ish when that fight took place.

Maybe i'm underestimating how much size matters here looking for a finish - Barao should be more technical both standing and with his BJJ if it goes to the ground I mean he is a legit BJJ black belt, he just has preferred to stand recently. One of those guys like Aldo that you forget has a ground game because he prefers to strike.

Held is the only top offensive grappler that Nover has faced really, and nobody he's faced is a threat for the TKO the way Barao is standing. It's hard to say because it's not like Nover has faced guys like say Nate Diaz for example or even a Jeremy Stephens type.

Agree pretty much with everything you say. I'd look into perhaps hedging an early Woodley KO.

The way I see the match going for the most part, Woodley either trying too much for TD then either gassing and losing or Wonderboy simply out striking him, making him look silly stood up and Woodley gassing that way. Wonderboy should finish him ITD. I don't think Woodley can go 5 rounds.

That said, Woodley has enormous 1 punch power, combined with that speed, I actually can see it happening that he KO's Wonderboy early on. I do feel that's Woodley's game plan a lot of the time.

True Wonderboy is hard to hit blah blah but he does get hit, he has been hit lots just not by somebody like Woodley.

Was the Brown match a 3 round fight? Because that can have a significant impact on whether Brown would of won if it was 5 rounds. Perhaps he could but I def not see Woodley doing that for 5 rounds.

Do I see a similar path to victory for Woodley. Can woodley pressure him with wrestling and take him down constantly for 5 ROUNDS? I'm not so sure tbh. He is going to gas, he is prone to gassing iirc. He also has chin issues iirc. So Wonderboy should wear him down and get a tko in the 3/4 round imo if not earlier.

All Wonderboy has to do is fade the first 2 rounds and not get caught by a Woodley bomb, but after that Woodley is toast imo. Either way you look at it, if he attempts too much TD early on he's going to be tired, if he stands at range too much he's going to get hit too often and that's going to wear him down. All that said I would hedge with a KO Woodley in R1, and maybe R2 too.

Woodley never outworking him for a decision either, not that I think Woodley will go the distance anyway.

If Woodley goes the same route as Brown, I think it actually works in Wonderboy's favor. Woodley just going to gas himself out early and lose later on. I also think Wonderboy has much better TD defense, from what I remember his TDD was shocking in that match.

RE Nelson: While I do agree with you about Nelson one punch and Bigfoot being slow etc. Do you ever see Bigfoot winning by decision here? I mean he should out strike Nelson and if he gets some TD on Nelson, who knows right?

Does Nelson have anything else other than that 1 punch, does he do enough to win decisions?

It's very unlikely Bigfoot KO's him
It's possible Nelson KO's him
If Nelson does not connect, who wins the decision?
Do you think it will go the distance?
Betting the decision on either might be the best bet here, hedged with an early KO from Nelson.

Big Foot is toilet now and has a glass chin. However, at -425 I really don't like betting Nelson too hard.

Isn't this every weekend

Got Barao at the weekend at -400/1.25. Don't usually like heavy favourites in mma but I think there is value in Barao.

Also its in Brazil which makes me think Barao might be able to get away with a few extra supplements and has the home advantage.

I need a big winner soon any suggestion ???

No point betting a -2000 fave. Ever. Imo

Yep, this. That's getting you into the territory where you're getting legitimately worried about a random in-fight injury or disqualification costing you your bet alongside the opponent's puncher's chance. I can't think of a single matchup that I'd bet at -2000 as a result.

Even something like a hypothetical match between JJ and Alex Chambers: JJ breaks a hand almost every fight and she usually works through it, but what if she broke a foot or an arm instead?

It's kind of a moot point because I can't remember a fight where someone was actually a -2000 fave, but Cyborg is as low as -1500 right now according to Best Fight Odds (-1111 on Pinnacle is the best available apparently). But even at those odds I don't think I'd be making a "free money" bet on Cyborg, particularly with a brutal weight cut that could leave her drained and/or more susceptible to knockouts.

Yea the brutal weight cut is something to consider. I'm not gonna bet her straight up just curious to thoughts on those bets. I remember being in Reno with my buddy when Rousey fought Holm n my buddy n I considered betting RR at -1600 n luckily decided against it

I think a fight like Rousey vs Alexis Davis is a better example of a spot where you can take the enormous favourite - Davis while having good BJJ will never get into top position against Rousey and she lacks the punching power on the feet to truly hurt her. That said there are very, very few circumstances i'd consider betting a fighter at -2000 - even Jones vs Sonnen, if Sonnen had survived another few minutes we were looking at a stoppage due to the foot injury that Jones got in r1.

I'm trying to think of a HW example - Cain vs Jared Rosholt, Rosholt literally has no gameplan to victory but again with it being HW, chance of a random punch or say Cain blows out his knee means you don't want to lay -2000

Mighty Mouse or Dominick Cruz against a low level guy with no KO power might be your best bet, but in Cruz's case there's injury concerns. Maybe Mighty Mouse against someone like say Yao Zhikui. I think that may be a spot where -2000 is +EV - if they fight 100 times MM should win the 97+ he needs to right, say 1 random injury, 1 DQ and 1 fluke lucky one punch ko?

I lean Bigfoot over Nelson if it goes the distance and actually just locked in 0.33u on Bigfoot by decision at +850, if Nelson lands any damage Bigfoot is going to be unconscious and Nelson's chin is good enough that I think he lasts the distance over 50% of the time if Bigfoot is winning convincingly. No spot to hit Nelson KO r1 yet, will wait and see where bet365 opens that specific prop - the Nelson wins in r1 at -230 is probably too steep. I'm going to find it amusing if I wind up on Bigfoot dec as my only play here despite being convinced he's getting knocked out. I do think it's the second most likely outcome though after Nelson KO, just that is overwhelmingly more likely than anything else.

I saw Cyborg wins in r1 at +140 on bestfightodds only to go to 5d and see the line doesn't actually exist which is disappointing. Surely no way that opens above evens.

on unibet nelson wins in rd 1 is +250

That's great value imo, Antonio just have no chin anymore whatsoever and needs to retire.

Nelson makes any sort of contact the fight is over. Good luck!

That has to be a mistake. It's -230 on 5Dimes. I'm huge on the under 1½ in this fight at -200.