Interesting to note that of my recommended bets, all of them except Johnson moved in my favour after I bet. This may be because favorites tend to move in pre fight, not sure (I was mostly betting faves so the only dog to move in my favour was Moraga). Will keep an eye on this in future.

It was a classic case of a competitive fight but not a close fight, if you feel me.

Faber had some moments and actually dropped Cruz with a punch at one point but I thought it was a pretty clear 49-46.

u could be thinking of aldo faber which was meh.

Cruz faber very very competitive.

This is correct

I had it 49-46 too with Faber only winning R4, it was competitive and fast paced but Cruz was in control for most of the bout

So anyone have any hot tips on Cerrone-Guillard, Shields-Herman or Okami-Roberts? I have the other bouts covered I think.

Melvin's head trainer left the camp a wk or 2 ago that may be a factor.

Im betting Melvin. I always seem to be betting against Cowboy though.

Cerrone will probably sub Guillard but the odds look pretty good on Guillard.

Herman is exactly the type of mid-level fighter Shields usually feasts on.

Okami should be a lock here.

I'm liking Holloway tho at slight + money against Justin Lawrence. After the initial hype, Lawrence has not looked like near the world beater he was supposed to, and Holloway is a talented striker in a bout that will almost certainly stay on the feet.

I liked okami at his opening price (around -310 I think) but he's already -525, which I'm not sure I like too much

Will probably make a play on Guillard, the odds are attractive.

Made a play on Shield when he was -175.

I'm liking Edgar, Shields and Guillard odds. I think Edgar and Shields will win around half, and close to 3/4 of the time respectively and Guillard will win often enough that the odds make it +EV even though Cerrone is deservedly the favourite

Leaning Lawrence over Holloway, I don't mind Lawrence by TKO and Holloway by decision though if the odds are good. Overall it's a props or stay away one. Okami is meh now I mean he should win but I don't take a -500 fav whose head might be in the wrong place after the two back to back KO losses

I got on Struve early at +236, he's in to +216 now so I think the line's going to move in that direction, might put the rest I want to bet on soon as I expect him to close at +180 or so

Jones inside distance may end up worth a play vs Hendo depending on the odds. Hendo's chin won't save him when he's gassed and gets taken down and subbed or elbowed to a doctor stoppage

I'll play Machida again if he's +500 to Jones like last time as I think Machida wins that fight 30% of the time or so (maybe 25%), but i'm done betting on anyone else over Jones, i'll be taking him inside distance against Hendo, Shogun, Gustaffson and anyone else he faces if the odds are reasonable. I think the true line on Jones/Hendo is probably -800 or maybe even more but I won't be making any significant plays at -600, will look for props instead if I bet it.

Wonder what the Rousey by sub odds are, probably close to Rousey's actual odds I guess.

Omfg Okami opened -310?

God where was I...

yeah, 5d had him at -320 opening, and sportsbet had -308

I've stopped following MMA for awhile. Why and how bad is Shields declining lately? I know MMA math doesn't work but he beat Dan freakin Henderson in his prime and now he's a small fav over Ed Herman?

Well basically he has **** standup and because he can't take down some fighters, he got smashed in the standup game. He should defeat Herman if he can take it to the ground. It has smth to do w the fact that Ed is on a 3 fight win streak and Shields is coming off an meh performance against akiyama.

Shields' lack of athleticism and lack of well roundedness is being badly exposed as he fights top competition.

Granted, he dominated Henderson but Henderson is a fairly good matchup for him because he has mediocre TDD and is atrocious off his back. Also, the reports that Henderson had a bad weight cut for that fight seem accurate, as he gassed really badly.

That's what you get when you become a vegetarian lol.

Herman's been looking pretty good lately. Shields lost to GSP, then his dad died and he got KO'd by Jake Ellenberger. GSP and Ellenberger are leagues above Herman though. Shields should beat him pretty easily, if I recall Herman lost r1 before winning his last fight, and he won't be able to sub Shields. That said, Herman could potentially outstrike Shields and try to keep it standing, but Shields should be able to get him down.

I'll probably get on Shields for a decent amount as well as Edgar at the next card.

Swoop's perdections arnt making me feel confident with my degen-sized bet placed on Bendo. I see frankie drawing relatively slim.

It was a competetive fight last time and I don't see it being any different this time around.

Alan Belcher +160 vs Belfort seems decent.

There were extenuating circumstances with that fight (as there is w/ many fights which is a main reason MMAth doesn't work)

Hendo's Dr gave him a prescription (pain killer I think) that made him retain water so his weight cut was unreal. He was half-dead before he even went out there

I thought the story was Hendo had an injured back against Shields.

Yep ur right, that's what it was. So he went to the Dr to get a painkiller for his back and his Dr prescribed one which made him retain water.

So he had a bad back AND a beyond grueling weight cut

This, which is why I think Edgar's a decent bet at the current odds. Hope if you are betting Edgar you waited.

I like Belfort against Belcher. Stylistically, it's a good fight for him. Belcher probably won't be looking to grapple and there aren't many who can hang on the feet with the Phenom.

Just saw undercard lines. Only guy that really jumps out at me is Lentz. He has been able to deal with lower level guys with his grappling. Mitsuoka is like 38 and Japanese. And if you're Japanese and not named Yushin Okami, I have a hard time believing in you at this point.

Why wouldn't Belcher look to grapple with Belfort? Belfort has good enough jitz, but the only time he's pulled off a sub that I can remember is against rumble, and maybe one in pride? Belcher would be a fool to just stand and trade the whole fight.

That being said I still like Belfort at the current odds.