Hmm Conor at -116 at one book, starting to get tempting. I'll probably bite at -110. I don't think Conor casual money will happen until fight weekend and more people seem to like Diaz than Conor, I think i'm in the minority that think Conor can win a rematch. I kind of want to see how Conor looks fighting at 170 again as well at weigh ins or during the weight cut as well.

Glover wins in r2 is tempting at +1000, so is Rumble by TKO kinda. I don't know what I like there but I think if Glover wins it'll be in r2 a lot because Rumble will come out hard and slow down if he fails to put Glover away and he quits mentally when things aren't going his way. Torn between expecting Rumble to knock his head off even though Glover has a good chin Rumble can put anyone down and Glover weathering the storm and making Rumble quit mentally. Will def consider playing Glover after the first round at +700 or something if he takes a beating in the first but Rumble looks at all tired

Conor got Gnp vs Mendez and could not defend his TD's. Nate rather fights stand up but has is BJJ for when it get to the floor. He's not known for TD's but Conor is neither.

I really do not see Conor winning this other than getting a lucky KO. He is never going the distance and he is def not out cardio'ing Nate.

Also remember that Nate will get hit less this time round, Conor will still come out swinging and will soon get tired.

Nate also hits too hard. Conor could not deal with the power of Nate, he is just not used to being punched that hard, it showed so clearly. He clearly was getting hurt, you could see that. It took like 5 punches in R1 and in round 2, he was slowing down and getting fatigued.

Just Nate landing on him, combined with Nate's ability to be hit less and able to absorb his punches better, makes this an easy Diaz win, imo!

Don't put all your eggs in 1 basket!

If someone here wants to place a bet on Conor, I'll take that action. We can avoid the juice this way.

Same here!

You're right, this is almost certainly gonna be a small-gloves kickboxing match. The last fight only went to the ground because Conor got rocked and resorted to panic wrestling. I can't see Conor wanting to take it to the ground, and I suspect it won't be Nate's go-to plan either.

Is it impossible for Conor to win a decision here though? Especially with the recent changes in judging? In particular they've been emphasising damage/impact over volume for volume's sake. And Nate's face after the last fight showed pretty clearly that Conor's strikes had impact.

I can definitely see a version of this fight where Conor gets at least three rounds in that way and takes a 48-47 type decision. Split decision either way is a real possibility.

Just to be clear, I definitely think Nate should be the favourite in this fight. I just don't think it's anywhere near the clear-cut bet-the-house lock as other people seem to.

Connor is gonna adjust and go for the unanimous decision I think. He knew right after the fight that he wasn't efficient with his energy and that he didn't expect Nate to be that durable. He said it himself right after the fight. Well now he knows.

Betting the over 2.5 rounds. And I'm kinda waiting for a better line for Connor as well. But I'm still 50/50 on who to back.

I was going to bring up nate's terrible issue with getting cut, red faced and swollen as an advantage to Conor. He is durable but looks beat up after a few strikes and that can sway judges in close rounds. I already anticipate Conor winning round one again.

Say what you will about Conor but I don't think I can know all this and he and his camp doesn't. He is clever and seems smart also but has done some odd **** as well. He never had to game plan and claimed he never has. Can he or will he?

I would love to see Diaz come out guns blazing and push the pace from jump with heavy volume to counter an anticipated slower pace from Conor.

His game planning something that's really hard to assess: he knocked Aldo out in 13 seconds so there was nothing to see, while the Mendes and Diaz fights were both against late replacements that he didn't really have time to game plan for.

Basically all of his other UFC fights were hand-picked stylistic layups where "do Conor McGregor stuff and get the KO" was the only game plan he really needed.

The exception is Holloway, and I love the adjustment he made to switch to a top control game after he hurt his knee in that fight. I don't think he does that if he doesn't hurt his knee though, and I don't see that as a viable option against Diaz unless he gets him really hurt first.

This is true. He has said himself he doesn't train for opponents but hard to know if it can be taken seriously as it was likely in a wolf ticket context so it probably should not hold weight.

Remember he controlled Diaz on the ground for about a minute (or less, cant remember) with solid GnP. I think he's definitely capable of doing a LnP gameplan if he focuses on getting Nate down. However, if he plays a ground game that revolves around grappling with Nate, he'll definitely get sweeped and / or subbed. He's also not built muscle wise for doing any lengthy grappling exchanges as that drains too much gas.

I saw a picture of Conor a few minutes ago, he's looking big n thick.

Judges know Nate has scar tissue that bleeds with one punch. That shouldn't effect scoring.

If Nate has been training hard I can't see him getting out boxed by Conor.

Reach advantage favors him as well as his superb cardio.

But if Conor loses this his hype goes down a lot (and tbh it should)

Almost all the advantages are for Nate in the re-match and I'd love to throw down heavy on him, but somehow I think he's going to screw it up now that he's rich and popular and an obsessed Conor is going to figure out a way to beat him, probably by decision.

I don't think Conor is going to demand a rematch just to fight a boring point fight.

Only if he wants to win. He tried going all out for the KO last time- it didn't go well for him.

His problem last time was that he went straight for the KO without putting in the work to set it up. I think it's certainly possible that he gets a stoppage victory in this fight, but unless Nate really screws up I don't see it coming early.

As for a fight that goes to decision, I don't necessarily think it'd be a "boring point fight" if it went that way. You can call McGregor a lot of things, but boring isn't one of them.

I think a boring point fight will lead into the trilogy perfectly on his behalf.

I don't think the fight is going to be boring no matter who wins. I am sure it will have drama and be exciting. Somehow I just think Nate already had his moment and is going to choke here no matter what physical and skill advantages he has. Maybe I'm just pessimistic because I lost so much lately, but I have 2u on Nate at evens from months ago and I'm fully prepared to lose it all and be on the wrong side of this bout for the second time. If Conor hits evens I might just buy out entirely and just live bet it.

Looks like he's been making a point of training with much bigger guys than him for this fight too.

Liking the prices on Conor, Magny and Markos at first glance. No plays yet but I expect to be on all 3.

Is Chris Avila any good because Artem is only on the roster because he's friends with Conor, I know the UFC is trying to get him wins but I kinda of want to auto fade him. His record is 11-12 and it's not like he's been facing Mark Hunt level opponents and Artem was one of the least impressive TUF finalists ever

Was pretty shocked to see Diaz as an underdog esp in a 5 round fight. IMO if Conor Is going to win he has to come in with a very smart game plan and go ham with leg kicks.

Same here want Diaz

He's from the Cesar Gracie team with Diaz, 5-2 in regional promotions. I think they've made this for the clash of gyms storyline, not to give either guy an easy win.

From the couple of fights I've seen on YouTube he looks kinda like diet version of the Diaz brothers. Has some pieces but has holes and is certainly beatable. One thing to keep in mind maybe is he's used to fighting in much smaller cages.

On the flipside, Lobov is just... bad...

My gut feeling is to fade Lobov as well but the prices might be close to right on this one. Anyone else seen more of his film?

My feeling is fade Lobov or just don't bet it. Backing Lobov just ain't gonna happen ...not with my $ anyway.