Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Holm -200 now and -5.5 pts is +125 and UD +150
I have no idea what to make of this line movement I feel like where the odds were originally is closer to correct and i'll feel really stupid if I bet on Holm and she loses or if I don't bet on her and she wins now. Will wait for weigh ins for the time being.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Team_Josh122
This Holm line move is super weird. Has to be an injury. I took it at -230 thinking it couldn't get better. It feels like such a trap at this point cause when it's too good to be true it usually isn't right?
There's been a few pundits and analysts (particulary Connor Ruebusch on Bloody Elbow / Heavy Hands - I believe he prob wrote that Sherdog preview too) talking up how this is going to be a close fight and Connor in particular has been vocal about Shevchenko's chances to win this. He's expecting a
super slow fight though, like 5-10 shots laned apiece per round, and is assuming that the judges won't be swayed by Holm's volume because she tends to miss a lot. And he thinks Shev will probably land a few takedowns.
For what it's worth, he's still only picking her by split decision.
I like his work a lot but I don't think I agree with him on this one - I see Holm keeping it at range for the majority of the time and winning through volume and superior movement. But he knows a lot more than me :P
Anywho, I suspect stuff like that may have had a bit to do with the steam on Shevchenko? Enough opinion pieces have gone out saying this should be a relatively close fight that it probably seemed like the odds were too long and Shevchenko got bet in (rightly, I think - I wasn't gonna bet Shev at the original odds, but I wasn't going to bet Holm until they came in either).
As for the weigh ins, Shevchenko isn't really a big bantamweight - I suspect she'd probably fight at flyweight if the UFC had that division. She fought at 125 for much of her early muay thai career (she beat Joanna Champion in an amateur bout at that weight), and her two UFC fights to date she's only weighed in at 134.