MMA Thread - Page 142 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

I like Machida here. Just made 2 bets:

Machida wins by 3 round decision +215
Fight goes 3 round distance -125.

This is a fantastic style matchup for Machida. He is obviously far superior to Bader on the feet. Bader is the type of plodder that the Dragon eats for lunch. Bader's wrestling just has not impressed very much, and he certainly hasn't shown enough to make me think he can take down Machida on a consistent basis. He's also very hittable on the feet, which concerns me a bit with regard to betting this going the distance. But I don't think Machida will be looking to rush in too much and give Bader a chance to hit a takedown.

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07-22-2012 , 09:11 PM

#3527

DjSkyy

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,735

Machida and Shogun are super easy moniez here.

Even bigger locks than lombard and ebersole were on the last card...oh wait...

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07-22-2012 , 09:22 PM

#3528

Minordonk

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 52

Haha I made a Kongo bet but lost my faber bet.

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07-23-2012 , 12:45 AM

#3529

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,336

Went 2-2 for the card to roughly break even, Kongo and Ring won and Clements and Clarke lost

Pretty underwhelming betting card etc. looking forward to the next one a lot more. Will be interested to see the Machida by decision and Machida by TKO lines

Rothwell 2.0 is tempting at +262 too as someones going out cold here if he turns up in the same shape he was in vs Schaub as opposed to fat rothwell

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07-23-2012 , 02:52 AM

#3530

Jaymun

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

Will likely wait until press conference/weigh in to decide whether I'm playing on Rothwell.

I like both Machida and Shogun both up to about -400, so I'll be making plays on them.

Doubt the odds will be attractive, but unless he has crazy ring rust, I think Mitrione gets by Broughton easily.

Going to have to researche Wagner Prado, but my first impression is that Mr Wonderful takes this one fairly easily, unless I see some elite takedown defense from Prado on tape. Not even sure why this fight has been made, or why Davis is on the undercard to be honest.

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07-23-2012 , 03:03 AM

#3531

stressed

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,409

I like Machida over Bader way more than Shogun over Vera.

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07-23-2012 , 03:44 AM

#3532

Chris M

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 580

For the next Fox event, I got in early on Machida/Bader goes distance (but still like it at -125), put a unit on Rothwell/Browne not going the distance, and a half unit on Rothwell to win.

Really curious to see where Joe Lauzon opens, considering how he and Varner's last fights each ended I think there's a good chance the opening line is off. More so than that, I'm looking forward to loading up on Lauzon/Varner not going the distance, and also on that fight not starting round 2. I think that fight is over in the first round at least 75% of the time.

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07-23-2012 , 04:09 PM

#3533

Jaymun

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

Bodog just opened Miocic at +200.

I'm sure its a mistake, seeing as Struve is the one around +200 on other books though.

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07-23-2012 , 04:46 PM

#3534

Minordonk

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 52

I'm jumping on that now thanks for the heads up

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07-23-2012 , 05:47 PM

#3535

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaymun

Bodog just opened Miocic at +200.

I'm sure its a mistake, seeing as Struve is the one around +200 on other books though.

Damn I cashed out my bodog monies like a week ago.

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07-23-2012 , 06:11 PM

#3536

Jaymun

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

What happens to a bet on Stipe if (when?) it turns out to be a mistake, do I get to keep the bet with the odds? or is it just voided?

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07-23-2012 , 07:59 PM

#3537

Minordonk

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 52

You keep the odds in most places

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07-23-2012 , 10:19 PM

#3538

GoDeViLs

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 3,467

ok gl with that

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07-23-2012 , 10:55 PM

#3539

Jaymun

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

Jones by decision is at +616 right now, and Hendo is not an easy guy to finish.

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07-23-2012 , 11:07 PM

#3540

Minordonk

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 52

I think jones will sub him but that's an interesting line.

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07-23-2012 , 11:09 PM

#3541

just_mo

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Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minordonk

I think jones will sub him but that's an interesting line.

This, probably worth a flier.

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07-24-2012 , 12:49 AM

#3542

PiercE

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 518

Good looks on the Miocic Bodog line, placed max bet on Miocic.

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07-24-2012 , 01:10 AM

#3543

traz

Werewolf Super*

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,259

Okami at -250 vs Palhares is printing money. I know we all love watching Palhares rip off limbs but the truth is the dude isn't very good at MMA. Despite getting Boetsch'd, Okami is very well rounded and unlikely to be finished. He's never been submitted and went the full 10mins against Maia at ADCC 2007. He should be a massive favourite imo.

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07-24-2012 , 01:37 AM

#3544

Jaymun

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

bodog corrected the odds and cancelled my play on stipe, damn, was hoping to scalp that one and just enjoy the fight, lol.

Agreed on Okami, as much as I love toquinho, I think okami takes a pretty lopsided decision

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07-24-2012 , 01:41 AM

#3545

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Ya I was gonna say something about this line awhile back but it slipped my mind. Been eyeing that one for awhile, I also see Okami as a bigger favorite than -250. Think this will look a bit like the Munoz fight, with Okami keeping him at bay and just landing straight punches.

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07-24-2012 , 12:56 PM

#3546

Swiiftx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,991

Jones should tap out Hendo due to his lacking cardio or possibly decision, depends how careful his gameplan is.

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07-24-2012 , 09:14 PM

#3547

Skipbidder

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 1,597

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minordonk

You keep the odds in most places

Bodog used to no-action lines that were only slightly off. (Haven't been there for years, maybe they've changed. I'm still bitter about a boxing bet that I didn't find out they no-actioned until after the fight.)

There is no way they are letting this sort of line stand.

I wouldn't even want to try, on the chance that you get reverse-freerolled on it.

Best bet is probably simply to report the off line to them. Some places will throw you a little bone for that.

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07-24-2012 , 09:48 PM

#3548

Minordonk

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 52

I don't have an account there but I called my friend bout it. After they took it away he withdrew all his money and is heading to betus.

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07-24-2012 , 09:51 PM

#3549

Jaymun

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 230

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipbidder

Yeah, they simply sent me a message saying my bet had been cancelled, no biggie.

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07-25-2012 , 04:06 AM

#3550

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,336

Hendo by decision seems like a decent bet at that price, I expect Jones to finish him too but Hendo can lose a 50-45 at least 1 in 6 times

I expect Jones by TKO or Sub in r3/4 though

What are the Jones by TKO and Jones by Sub lines?

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