I TJ won 4 cruz won 2 and decent lean cruz on 1 and 3 I scored 5 as lean TJ but cruz did win the last 90secs or so and it was close. I'd sooner score it 49-46 for cruz than TJ. Question is who does cruz fight next

I remember when people thought Barao would beat cruz. Nope. Healthy cruz is goat at bw hope he's even healthier after a few more months for next fight

i had first 3 for Cruz, 4 was def TJ and thought 5th was flip a coin.

I thought round 1 was clear Cruz.

Fightmetric stats insanely close. Do they not score the fights any more?

This was my scorecard I thought I'd won after first 3 n was just hoping to see it out/hold for the decision. But whatever a win is a win

Anyway onto the next....... Rumble Bader!!

This was such a close fight, no sense in arguing who won imo. If you really wanted to dig deep, you'd have to start looking at each exchange with the parameters of hit area / damage etc. Perhaps then, you'd get a somewhat clear answer. But knowing how fightmetric and judges score, it could have gone to either one. But overall I'd say, Cruz started better, Dillashaw got better at the end.

I was busy hanging with friends I hadn't seen in a year or two tonight, so I ended up just reading the pbp for the tv prelims at dinner and half paying attention to the co-main and main events with the sound off across a bar and a dead battery phone in my pocket. Sounds like I missed some good live betting opportunities. Still ended up with a hefty profit even with getting caught on one of my two cute Not Exactly bets.


UFN 81 Risk $3170.70

Dominick Cruz (+120) vs T.J. Dillashaw $200.00 for $240.00= $240.00
Dominick Cruz wins by 5 round decision (+255) $50.00 for $127.50= $127.50

Eddie Alvarez (+275) vs Anthony Pettis $100.00 for $275.00= $275.00
Eddie Alvarez +3½ points (+130) $50.00 for $65.00= $65.00
Eddie Alvarez wins by 3 round decision (+475) $40.00 for $190.00= $190.00
Anthony Pettis wins by submission (+510) $20.00 for $102.00= -$20.00

Travis Browne (-160) vs Matt Mitrione $160.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Travis Browne wins by submission (+1085) $10.00 for $108.50= -$10.00

Francisco Trinaldo (+140) vs Ross Pearson $100.00 for $140.00= $140.00
Francisco Trinaldo (+130) vs Ross Pearson $100.00 for $130.00= $130.00

Patrick Cote (+105) vs Ben Saunders $200.00 for $210.00= $210.00
Patrick Cote/Ben Saunders Over 2½ (+100) $50.00 for $50.00= -$50.00
Patrick Cote wins by 3 round decision (+250) $40.00 for $100.00= -$40.00
Ben Saunders scorecards = no action (-144) vs Patrick Cote $57.60 for $40.00= -$57.60
Ed Herman/Tim Boetsch Under 2½ (-130) $65.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Ed Herman wins by 3 round decision (+490) $25.00 for $122.50= -$25.00
Chris Wade -3½ points (-150) vs Mehdi Baghdad $75.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Chris Wade wins by submission (+350) $20.00 for $70.00= $70.00
Chris Wade wins in round 3 (+1375) $10.00 for $137.50= -$10.00
Maximo Blanco (-130) vs Luke Sanders $130.00 for $100.00= -$130.00
Maximo Blanco wins inside distance (+277) $25.00 for $69.25= -$25.00

Paul Felder (-230) vs Daron Cruickshank $230.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Paul Felder/Daron Cruickshank Over 1½ (-180) $100.00 for $55.56= $55.56
Paul Felder wins by 3 round decision (+240) $50.00 for $120.00= -$50.00
Ilir Latifi (-210) vs Sean O'Connell $210.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Ilir Latifi/Sean O'Connell Under 1½ (+150) $50.00 for $75.00= $75.00
Charles Rosa/Kyle Bochniak Under 2½ (-105) $52.50 for $50.00= -$52.50
Rob Font/Joey Gomez won’t start round 3 (-154) $61.60 for $40.00= $40.00
Elvis Mutapcic/Francimar Barroso Over 2½ (-125) $50.00 for $40.00= $40.00

Not Exactly five fights end in KO/TKO (-359) $359.00 for $100.00= -$359.00
Not Exactly six fights go distance (-370) $370.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Fights to go distance over 6½ (+152) $40.00 for $60.80= -$40.00
Fights to go distance over 7½ (+380) $25.00 for $95.00= -$25.00
Fights to go distance over 8½ (+1033) $15.00 for $154.95= -$15.00
Fights to go distance over 9½ (+3025) $10.00 for $302.50= -$10.00
Fights to go distance over 10½ (+14000) $5.00 for $700.00= -$5.00

Dominick Cruz/TJ Dillashaw FOTN award winner (+300) $15.00 for $45.00= $45.00
-----
Total Profit= $1278.96

Apparently the 49-46 cruz judge scored r1 for TJ not round 4 or even 5 lol

49-46 TJ card lol too both judges need to be fired

Same here

Props to Cruz showed he is an all time great coming back from everything and beating TJ.
I am 0-4 this year in singles to split decisions Noke-huge robbery, Condit- Pretty big Robbery, Pettis and TJ which I thought could go either way.

In a hole to start the year but I did get the biggest gift decision ever when Sanchez beat Pearson so can't feel too bad I suppose. On Holbrook against Northcutt at +300 and also to end a small parlay at +650. Will probably follow some other bets from other dudes as my capping ability seems pretty ****ty at the moment.

Pretty good event for me: up about 10u between Cruz, Browne, Alvarez, Latifi, and Cote. I got it wrong on Pearson, Boetsch, and Blanco which cost me a few units.

I expected a lot of decisions so these props also cost me too much

Just fired a 2 dollar parlay to win 1k (0.02u/10u) on

Bader/Rothwell/Sage/Werdum/Wonderboy/Nelson/Cerrone/Conor

I think it's quite solid for 500-1

Will probably bet all of them individually too except maybe Sage (ill have to rewatch some tape) but no reason tie up funds for ages, should have taken Bader when he was +380 but his current line is still great too he should be more like +180 imo than +3xx AJ will KO him in r1 a lot and if he doesnt I actually think Bader is the favourite if the fight lasts over about 7 mins

Im thinking ill fire Conor KO and Nelson KO props as well, maybe with a small hedge on Rosholt dec, and Bader wins in r3-4-5 props may be tempting if price gets long enough. AJ wins in r1 could be a hedge too if its bettable, although I doubt it.

Will be interesting to see who Cruz fights next. I hope he gets to fight 2 more times this year at least. Cruz vs TJ 2, Faber, Barao if he stays at 135 which he may be more likely to do now that TJ isn't champ anymore so he could get a shot with a couple wins, Assuncao, Lineker/Garbrandt winner, Dodson, Sterling if he's re-signed, Almeida... that's that's 8 legitimate contenders to Cruz's belt and thats not including a MM superfight. If Cruz can fight 3 times a year for the next 36 months and can run through TJ 2, Faber 3, Barao, Assuncao, Sterling, Almeida, Mighty Mouse and one or two of Dodson/Lineker/Garbrandt he could make a legit case for GOAT. Its crazy to think we could see 10 more Cruz fights in the time period since his last BW title defense, he should have a solid 3 years of his prime left since he's only 30 if he can stay healthy and could put together an insane run given the depth of BW right now.

A few more Hunt vs Mir card fights announced, think the Dan Kelly train has left the station he's not getting past Carlos Jr, it's insane i've bet on him in 4/4 UFC fights as a dog and he's won 3 of them. He's like Perosh in his ability to somehow win fights he's not supposed to in the UFC. Lombard should wreck Magny even without steroids but I kinda hope Magny embarrasses him in front of his home crowd, I don't like Magny but Lombard is by far my least favourite Australian-ish UFC fighter in addition to allegedly being a douchebag in the gym he's a roid cheat and I hope he loses miserably. I'll probably be one of the only people in the crowd cheering for Magny, Lombard will KTFO him if he's remotely the same fighter without steroids but that's a huge question mark. Cuban fighters who are complete *******s with absurdly ripped bodies... Lombard, Romero... Cuban fighters who turned out to be on the juice? Lombard, Romero...

Not bad for a fight night card so far though, Mir vs Hunt and Magny vs Lombard are both solid fights for a free card so i'll probably go assuming the rest of the card is ok, so far there are no notable other fights but hopefully we at least get Jake Matthews vs someone reasonable and Robert Whittaker vs someone top 15 although I half expect us to not even get Whittaker on the card even though he's the only top 10 guy from Australia (Hunt sort of counts since he's getting Aus citizenship but he's still from NZ)

Unless Cruz goes up to face winner of Aldo / Edgar / Conor (if he goes down again), I doubt he'll ever get the recognition of GOAT. Even if he beats the likes of Barao, Asuncao, TJ 2. That division is kind of meh right now tbh. Going down won't do him much good either since he's already beaten MM (if he never would have faced him before, it would have been better), and that's not knocking on MM because P4P, he is one of the most skilled.

I like it except for Nelson...

Jacaré vs belfort fight night brazil announced lol I will not be waiting up till 3-4am uk time for that fight.

I feel like even though he totally sucks he matches up perfectly with Rosholt. At least, I hope so. If Nelson can't overhand right Rosholt anymore then there's no point in him continuing to fight because he won't be able to do it to anyone above Ruan Potts level

Jacare vs Belfort announced, I guess Belfort wins in r1 could be worth a play given if he wins thats how he'll do it? Maybe fight doesnt go the distance but doubt that will be bettable. I'm guessing post TRT Belfort will still be a r1 beast but will be done after that

agree with all of this. Nelson still has a cannon of a right and Rosholt's defense/stamina are poor.

If I was Belfort I'd switch over to micro-dosing. This is the new rage right now where you take a tiny amount of GHB and it's out of your system in 12 hours. As long as WADA doesn't show up in that window you'll be in the clear.

Swoop I think you're too hard on roid cheats. The reality is still 70% of UFC fighters are still juicing and the industry nearly forces you to. Here's why.

Lets say a fighter joins the UFC at the common age of 25. Assuming he's not hyped like Connor/Sage he has to work his way up the ranks. If he goes undefeated he's still looking at 5-7 fights before he even gets to fight a top 10 opponent... depending on the depth of his weight class and his style of victory. Finishes speed the process as well as self-promotion.
Lets assume he losses 1 fight... that puts him down 2-3 more fights of winning before he's back to a top 10 shot.

Even after he gets a top 10 shot he's still 3 fights away from the belt. All of course without losing. And this is for the most successful UFC fighters.
Along the way in this 10-15 fight journey at any time losing 2-3 fights in a row will get you cut.

Look at the payday's these guys are getting (especially with the Reebok deal). Is it 7k for the first few fights? Then after 6 fights you're finally at 20k? Maybe after 10 fights you're in the 50k range? Assuming you fight 3 times a year that's not a lot of money when you have to pay insane amounts for diet/training/paying the bills.

But after 10-15 fights even if you're not champ you sort of develop a following... win or lose. This is when you can be a Co Main eventer even if you're never going to be champ. When you add in a loss here or there or an injury, or being cut and then later resigned this process can take 5-10 years. Now the guy is 32-35 and he finally has a chance to make some real money. Of course he's going to want to juice as he doesn't have a retirement package and has to be pretty confidant his opponent is cheating as well.

Now imagine debuting in the UFC when you're almost 30 and it gets that much tougher as the window to make money is going to directly conflict with your body slowing down. Romero, Lombard, Cro Cop, Tibau, Belfot, Mir, Barnett, Dan Henderson all felt the need to do this to have a chance to make enough money to retire and not by coincidence they were all in their 30's/40's.

If the UFC paid people better they could just walk away from the sport when they felt their bodies slowing down... instead they do everything they can to keep fighting for as long as they can out of necessity.

I like the gator over Belfort. Short if a flash KO this will be a difficult fight for Belfort to win.

At the end of the day id be fine with steroids if NOBODY got tested and it was a known level playing field where everyone could use if they chose to, but if one guy's not on anything and the other is that's unfair. The rules are you can't use them and so anyone using them gets no sympathy from me and should have a win overturned along with win bonus and be out at least a year for the first offense and permanently cut for a second offense imo. Bonnar and Anderson were two of my favourite fighters and they've both completely tarnished their legacy to me. No sympathy for guys like Paul Daley who hit people after the bell either.

I hope Magny crushes Lombard, the stories i've heard about him make him seem like a not nice person. Depends on how non-roided Lombard is and how it affects him I guess.

Was sad to see Erick Silva even though he didnt get popped seems to be a user, and as much as I love JDS and ill give him the benefit of the doubt I kinda think he was using now too. I still think RDA is on something probably and Aldo almost certainly was. Even Weidman with his decrease in size and Rockhold's physique is suspect but I guess they get the benefit of the doubt until testing positive

Lombard also broke a guys leg in bjj competition. Also heard rumours he's hell in training, so he's got no sympathy from me. When you see leg lock specialist like Tonon, Cummings let go and be very careful of their opponents, and you see the likes of Lombard and Palhares going it at, you really get to dislike those type of competitors.

I wouldn't take even money on any particular top-10 male fighter being clean for at least the last 5 years. The testing was so incompetent that it was almost a necessity.

isit me or did pettis look a lil different too

I think this is a bad match up for Nelson because Rosholt won't be interested in any striking exchanges. Rosholt will just aim to wrestle**** him for 3 rounds like he did Struve. Rosholt ML and the over are my favourite lines in a while.

I think Nelson shouldn't be fighting anymore as he only has 1 weapon and everyone is well aware of what it is. He has no footwork, no gas tank, and weak wrestling relative to Rosholt. I think Nelson would be a fun headliner for Japan shows or Bellator but he is not really UFC level anymore and just hangs around because he sells tickets.

Anyway I am not harping on your parlay, it is great for what it is - a longshot lottery ticket so anything can happen.

Finally, everyone rags on Rosholt for his cardio but for his size and gameplan I think his cardio is fine.

Nelson has decent tdd though, but yeah he's going to lose to any decent HW these days, not sure Rosholt fits into that category.

Whittaker is a Kiwi too isn't he? I know he trains here