the euro cards always have some new fighters without any fightmetric data. they always seem like spots that if you did your homework you can beat the lines

this teemu guy this weekend is new and seems like he could be a boss

Michael Bisping v Thales Leites - Will The Fight Go The Full 5 Rounds? No Single 11/10 425.00 0.00 Open Pending

risk £425

Potential
892.50


Michael Bisping is no armature when a pro steps up like rockhold he gets ripped a new one but below that he is impressive, very impressive, this is a kid stepping in, and its going 5rd rds?

lock it up for 2 units or more imho

comments?

Edit: 2 units does not = £425 to me I am bridge jumping, however its rare to see a full on high level 5d imho, and bisping is going to murder this guy but im staying away from the bisping as winner.

I haven't formed any super-strong opinion on this fight yet... but it's worth noting that Thales Leites isn't just some kid: he's a veteran fighter, 25-4 (13 fights in the UFC) and hasn't been knocked out to date.

Good night for me but sadly went small and only bet two fights, but still went 2-0 and won just under 2u

Annoyed Mir came in heavy, if he came in at 245ish i'd have probably had 2u on at that price rather than half a unit

Glad to see Mir and Ferguson come through. Ferguson needs a top 5 guy next. He has to be close to that title shot.

He explained his weight at the press conference, saying he felt more flexible and moved better when he didn't do all of the cardio stuff / weight lifting, strange enough at first glance. You'd think if you did those things, you'd be able to move around your weight easier but for him it's opposite. And tbh, he did actually move quite well in the fight, was a lot more fluid than we're used to seeing him.

Balla, you wrote a very detailed and thoughtful post about the odds and sensibility of my big live bet. I am going to respond with brevity though- I have to admit that was a pretty reckless wager. I guess I was more curious if the sportsbook would actually take a live bet that big than I was thinking that I needed that extra $28 in my account on a winning night, or at all for that matter. I doubt I will do something like that again.

it was a good bet. there are sometimes bad decisions but the blood all over thompson seals the decision being right an astronomical high %

throwing aside kelly betting and bankroll managment for a bit (unless your a professional gambler), just consider how big a blow 4k would be for you personally and go from there.

Assuming the real odds were 1:200, kelly would give an upper bound of about 30% of your roll. the more common half kelly would say 15%. I think i read that some professionals cap their bets at about 2% of their roll. But if you have a job and your roll is small compared to your income you can stomach a bigger risk of ruin.

in any case, that last fight night was the first ive ever sat and watched from beginning to end. Got some 0.1-0.25u action on every fight based on your picks (just to make watching more interesting) and came up a little over 1.5u.. so much thanks

Good post yeah Leites is solid great jiu jitsu lots of experience and an improving striking game. I think its a tough fight for Bisping and could go either way I slightly lean Leites as Bisping's chin seems to be showing some wear these days.

I wanna see mir versus arlovski.

looked more into it,

I don't think Bispings striking is going to confuse Leites much, Bispings good left hand jab and used for feeling out and set up his right hand which doesn't land as much as it should do. Leites is good at circling away from the right hand as well.

One thing I would say is Bispings cardio and his non stop relentless game is going to make for a eventful fight.

I see Leites as being much more powerful with his body control, but will tire if it gets to the 3rd.

One thing I would like to see from Leites if I was betting him is elbows when in close but I did not see any elbows looking through his fights.

Bisping can get KO'ed or easily submitted by Leites

For Bisping to beat Leites he needs to take it into the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds
I think even for Bisping its going to be a draining tiring fight because of Leites strength.

Bisping needs openings for his right hand to appear, I don't see those openings for him in the first few rds.

Both of these guys have too much experience and can fight a dog fight.


Bispings is going to look considerable sharper on the feet start of the fight but not affective vs Leites who has good movement, a standard right hand is not going to trouble him in the first few rounds.

Leites is vs a guy with best of breed cardio and very good take down defences.
So the fight is going to play out and be decided by striking in the first 2 rounds imo, both fighters will be landing on each other and I am not sure if Bisping can take Leites power, he is a solid guy.


Both of these fighters both need to do the same thing, smoother the other fighter bt Leites only has 2 good rounds to do it before Bispings cardio and pace will kick in and mean the difference.

There is no way that Leites can afford to still be fighting Bisping after the 3rd round, he will be totally exhausted, he is a big strong well rounded Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Muay Thai fighter.

Too much meat, muscle, power and advantages for each fighter in their areas for the fight to go the distance.

I would not like to have to bet the winner in this fight and recommend the inside the distance at -110

Bisping will force the issue in the 4th and 5th you can be sure of that as he needs to look good.

Feeling Thales in this fight,




official weigh-in for UFC Fight Night: Bisping VS. Leites live Friday, July 17 at 9am/6am ETPT.

Mir vs Arlovski would be great, but honestly Arlovski is still ranked above him for the time being even after that win. I think we need Arlovski vs Stipe if JDS is fighting Werdum in a rematch... Arlovski and Stipe both deserve a #1 contender match and JDS deserves a shot at Werdum given he has a win over Werdum and is coming off a win over Stipe and is a former champ, plus i'm sure Werdum would love to avenge the loss (if he can avenge all of his losses he can make a case for GOAT at HW) and Cain needs to get a win or two to deserve a title shot after getting finished.

I love the idea of Fedor vs Mir to be honest, two vets who were the best in their orgs in their prime, but I assume the UFC won't risk losing Fedor/Werdum 2 if they pull off the miracle and get Fedor to sign and with his legacy and his second/third losses at the end of his career being against guys on TRT which has since been banned, they can probably sell Fedor/Werdum 2 especially as the first fight was basically Werdum trapping Fedor through overconfidence and then subbing him in the first

They can also do Cain vs Fedor in a #1 contender fight and nobody could doubt the legitimacy of the winner of that receiving a title shot

Somehow, Fedor would open up the HW division, would be very exciting to have him there. And if they play their cards right aka give him a beatable fighter ranked outside top 10, before giving him a win win kind of fighter (someone who rockets to contendership if he wins and someone whos legit enough to warrant Fedor a titleshot). Though, I think the last thing Dana wants is to have Fedor be UFC champ, as ppl can say UFC never had the best HW's in the past.

well maybe they didn't and maybe they don't.

Edit: bellator should match Fedor with 3 or 4 progressive harder fights and not throw him in the deep end straight away.
He is going to make huge amounts of money if he returns.



edit: this is fedor 10th March 2015

looking at the back ground of cortney and joanne, SUB win by Casey looks most likely outcome here,

UFC Matches Joanne Calderwood v Cortney Casey
18-07-2015 13:30
Method of Victory Win
Single: Cortney Casey by Submission @ 12/1
1 line at £17.45 per line
Total stake for this bet: £17.45
Potential returns: £226.85


-----

Leites, Thales @ 1/1 (+100)
Michael Bisping v Thales Leites
To Win Fight
Event Date: 18 Jul 2015
Total Stake: £ 30.00
Estimated return: £60.00

I have 1 unit on Thales and I am thinking of firing on the "goes the distance" line. Both fighters are smart and fight defensively. I think if it does go to decision Bisping will take it.

I can see a stalemate where the 4th and 5th round are slow and gruelling.

Anyone else think the duffy line is off? He looked great but is inexperienced at the highest level and currently around -850 vs an opponent with similar record and dangerous sub game.

My guess is -350/400 is about right and this is connor hype again

Bears+1000 2 units
Lima-168 .60 units

I have 1 unit on Jorge @ +500. I agree with your assessment there is no way Jorge is that much of a dog

small cage or big cage?

i dont know a good place to know this info

In theory we would have this information every time before fight night and it would although some people say its doesn't, it does appear to affect the end by KO result over reasonable sample size.


example
If there is a small cage for an event, MMA better A may bet 3 units for the inside 5 rds,

If there is a bigger cage, he may bet the over 1.5 hard.

We need to know for each event, cage size its important.

good post g-p

ref:

http://mmajunkie.com/2015/06/does-ca...t-surprise-you

0.5 U on bears @ +1,000. There has to be some value here...

Small action for Bellator tonight.

Bellator 140 Risk $351.74

Andrey Koreshkov/Douglas Lima Over 2½ (-132) $66.00 for $50.00
Douglas Lima wins by 5 round decision (+315) $25.00 for $78.75
Paul Bradley (+240) vs Chris Honeycutt $50.00 for $120.00
Michael Page/Rudy Bears Over 1½ (+173) $30.00 for $51.90
Brennan Ward wins by 3 round decision (+350) vs Roger Carroll $25.00 for $87.50
Paul Daley/Dennis Olson Under 1½ (-110) $44.00 for $40.00

Parlay:
Paul Daley (-774) + Brennan Ward (-517) + Michael Page (-1350) $111.74 for $50.00

lookin good JG,

I tailed this one for 1 unit

GL tonight

EDIT: I also added 0.5 U on Carroll inside the distance. I am just loving the big dogs on this card. Hopefully we see at least 1 big upset.