MMA Thread - Page 1166 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

You're looking at it the wrong way. Unless you're using parlays for brm reasons it is always +ev to justake multiple straight bets instead of doing a parlay.

So if there is no value in a straight bet, it isn't +ev to have in a parlay.

Quote

04-03-2015 , 01:04 AM

#29127

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

lol wow.

Quote

04-03-2015 , 01:35 AM

#29128

luckproof

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,935

I think I got it....

1. Find crapshoot fights
2. Parlay them
3. Profit

Quote

04-03-2015 , 02:18 AM

#29129

theporkchop

adept

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 725

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

unless the parlay is giving you a better price

Quote

04-03-2015 , 02:26 AM

#29130

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

I meant line movement not brm.

It is always more profitable to Carry profits over and bet on 3 individual fights than on a parlay.

The only exception is if you think the line movement is drastic enough between fight a to fight c. Considering you are parlaying fights from the same card in the same night it isn't very likley though.

Quote

04-03-2015 , 01:57 PM

#29131

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by theporkchop

unless the parlay is giving you a better price

I do not think this word means what you think it means.

Quote

04-03-2015 , 04:21 PM

#29132

Willikn

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 181

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

You're looking at it the wrong way. Unless you're using parlays for brm reasons it is always +ev to just take multiple straight bets instead of doing a parlay.

So if there is no value in a straight bet, it isn't +ev to have in a parlay.

This.

Constantly see folks with parlays that crossover multiple days. Can't figure what sucks people into those bets.

There is no logic that supports a parlay over straight bets.

Quote

04-03-2015 , 06:03 PM

#29133

mixt

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willikn

There is no logic that supports a parlay over straight bets.

It might not be justifiable from a pure EV perspective but I'm not some machine and don't rely on betting MMA to make a living so if I bet a card I'll often put down .2u on a parlay of my bets to chance a nice little kick to my BR.

The way I think about it is I've looked over the card, made picks which I think are likely +EV and then parlay them for a little bit of extra sweat. Makes it fun coming into the last fight too when you've got a bet + parlay on

Quote

04-04-2015 , 03:43 AM

#29134

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

Laflare -160 (3u)
Nunes -390 (5u)
Martin -115 (2u)
Arreola +185 (1u)
Souza -230 (3u)
Dober +135 (2u)
Mafra -155 (4u)
Serrano +160 (1u)
Serrano +125 (1u)

Fili/peppy u1.5 +125 (2u)
Souza/kikuno u1.5r +125 (2u)
Tibau/Arreola o1.5r -195 (2u)

Silva r1 +125 (2u)
Burns ITD -205 (2u)
Nunes via KO -110 (1u)

10-4, +10.43u

YTD sides: 26-24-1, 23.65u. YTD Props: 9-15-1, +13.27u. YTD over/under: 10-5, +8.1u
YTD total: 45-45-2, +45.02u

Guida -230 (5u)
Carmouche -115 (2u)
Jones -130 (1u)

Will be watching, but not at all excited for this card. As a fan its w/e, and betting wise it sucks. only good thing is it is a day time card that won't take up my Saturday night.

Quote

04-04-2015 , 06:11 AM

#29135

Sect7G

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,234

I sometimes wished UFC's didn't run at night time so I wouldn't be messed up for Sundays but I just can't get excited for an early morning card. + the friggin Easterbunny dropped by my house and I'm gonna have kids scrambling for eggs when I'm trying to sip some coffee instead of my usual #dead elephant. 1st world problems, I know.

Quote

04-04-2015 , 09:20 AM

#29136

RB87

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Don't really like much on this card but put a unit on Maynard at +110.
Yakolev isn't much of a puncher and much more of a grinding wrestler and I think Maynard matches up well with him unless his chin is completely gone he should take this.

Quote

04-04-2015 , 10:16 AM

#29137

phenomenal

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,524

Picks

Lamas 3.6u
Dudieva 3.6u
Peralta 2.4u
Jones 2.4u

Not too much bet on. The time suits me very well. Don't have to be up the whole night.

Quote

04-04-2015 , 11:26 AM

#29138

phenomenal

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,524

No help from the judges boohooooo

Quote

04-04-2015 , 11:35 AM

#29139

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,255

Ended up with

0.5u Stallings +118
0.5u Yakovlev -136 (booking a Sect7G's action for an anti maynard sweat)
0.5u Guida -230
0.5u Carmouche +104
1u Masvidal -120
3.2u Pena -253
3.2u Poirier -166
0.5u Guida+Mendes parlay
0.5u Poirier/Pena/Masvidal/Guida/Mendes parlay
0.2u u1.5 HW fight +130

Surprised I was wrong about Poirier line movement but glad I was right about Pena line movement at least

Quote

04-04-2015 , 11:46 AM

#29140

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

Cain had better be watching out for these guys.

Quote

04-04-2015 , 11:49 AM

#29141

RB87

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Tim Sylvia mark 2

Quote

04-04-2015 , 11:49 AM

#29142

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomCowley

Cain had better be watching out for these guys.

I laughed.

Also don't love that stoppage.

Quote

04-04-2015 , 11:52 AM

#29143

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

Yeah I didn't either live. God on that last replay it was terrible, almost nothing landed.

Quote

04-04-2015 , 11:53 AM

#29144

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,255

Stoppage was iffy but not the worst. Pretty similar to if ref had stopped Lesnar/Carwin. I'd have let it go w a few secs left but w/e i'll take it

Decided to make Guida a full unit

Good start 2/2 so far

In theory Maynard has the skillset here but I hope Yakovlev can crack his nonexistent chin

Quote

04-04-2015 , 11:56 AM

#29145

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

I feel Maynard is exactly where Hughes and Liddell once were. He is going to win the fight with superior technique, until the second he gets hit. Then it's over.

Quote

04-04-2015 , 12:10 PM

#29146

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,255

Yeah basically he's technically superior but his chin is shot if he gets hit hard

Quote

04-04-2015 , 12:14 PM

#29147

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,255

Close r1 and Maynard's chin hasn't really been tested yet

Playing a bunch of tables so not really sure who won that round but seemed close

Quote

04-04-2015 , 12:20 PM

#29148

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,255

First time in a long time that Maynard doesnt get finished when rocked but he was in serious trouble

r2 Yakovlev, r1 flip so far

Quote

04-04-2015 , 12:21 PM

#29149

phenomenal

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,524

If only Yakovlev had some power

Quote

04-04-2015 , 12:26 PM

#29150

TomCowley

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 5,649

I have mini-Struve 30-27 but R1 was close.

Quote

Page 1166 of 2165

First

166 666 966 1066 1116 1146 1156 1161 1162 1163 1164 1165 1166 1167 1168 1169 1170 1171 1176 1186 1216 1266 1366 1666

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1166 of 2165

First

166 666 966 1066 1116 1146 1156 1161 1162 1163 1164 1165 1166 1167 1168 1169 1170 1171 1176 1186 1216 1266 1366 1666

Last