Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Good writeup, thanks for that. FWIW the loss to Hendricks has no bearing on my Silva bet which is based mostly on Fitch's advancing age and time out of the cage.
Time out of the cage is understandable, and I agree, but in his last non-hendricks fight he didnt really show signs of age. Granted that was 1.5 years ago, but 34 isn't all that old for a fighter who doesn't rely on speed very much. Obviously it needs to be taken into account, but I think its hard to read much into it without having seen him fight in a while.
153 is the first card I've had time to take a good look at in a while, not sure how much im going to get down on it, but my initial thoughts (beyond the fitch fight which I've already gone over, and will make a few nice parlays I have going):
I like nog against herman, but I'm not sure how much. The closer it gets to -200 the more likely I'll be to put down a couple units. It bothers me a bit that nog couldnt get schaub down, Herman's striking isn't formidable, but the older nog gets and the more he slows down the more strikers worry me against him. Doubt I end up pulling the trigger.
Liking the prado line, going to wait on it and hope money goes in on Phil for his being a big name and having main evented 1 (?) free card.
Looking to get money on glover sooner rather than later, as I'm guessing thats where everyones money is going. Maldonado is a pretty good offensive striker, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired, and glover's offensive stand up is good enough that, if the fight is there I wouldnt be too concerned. Combine that with glover's grappling (fight is money in the bank if it goes to the ground imo)
Haven't seen a line on cane vs carmozzi yet, but I'm hoping cane's recent troubles give me some good value on him. Cane's losses have come against solid strikers in lil nog, diabate and nedkov, and Carmozi hasn't outstruck anybody that impresses me. I'm absolute garbage at predicting lines, so I have no idea if I'll end up with money on this, but barring some serious juice I think this will be one of my bigger plays
Need to research the rest of the undercard more before I make any decisions, a lot of guys i only recall having seen fight once or twice...