Sportsbetting: TB -1' (+175)
Sportsbook: BOS -1' (+155)

If you bet both of these at 100 dollars, you win either 75 or 55 if the game does not end as a 1-run affair. So, 200 to win ~65. You need to win this ~75% to break even

Or, the other way:
Sportsbetting: BOS +1.5 (-210)
Sportsbook: TB +1.5 (-175)

If you bet 100 on each of these, you would lose 52 if BOS covers but TB does not, lose 43 if TB covers by BOS does not, or win 105 if it ends as a one-run game.

So, you risk ~150 to win 105. So you need to win this ~60% to break even.

Do we ever find MLs where this could be profitable? When can this be exploited as a +EV situation.

While I highly doubt that what you are suggesting is +EV there is one situation where I take a shot at something like this.

The criteria are:
Game total 8 or less.
Fav price ~-140
Dog run line price +1.5 ~-140

At those numbers you're looking for a one run win by the fav for a 5-1 return. Plus EV??? I don't really know, the situation only comes up every couple of weeks or so. I am slightly ahead with it though.

EV is additive. If none of the individual lines are +EV, your combinations (or any other betting systems) aren't going to be +EV.

DDDDDDDoooohhhhhhhhhhh

not sure if additive is the correct word(it may be, im tired) but we could quote this post for so many of the questions/beginner posts in this forum. im going to start doing it.

cumulative, fixed, inert, summation, immobile, definite, or additive. I dunno.

Sure, but you don't have to know ahead of time which of the individual lines is +EV. In this case, I'd say that if there is a profitable middle (based on historical 1-run win rates at various totals/lines/whatever) then by definition you know one of the two lines you're betting is +EV; since you're not handicapping it, you don't know which one, but you don't care, either. Let the market figure out which line is soft and fix it.

That all said, I'd be surprised if this comes up often, if at all, but if you have the data on win rates you can probably spend some time looking for them next season. You shouldn't see any profitable middles on WA closing lines, of course.

this is a bad idea for playoff baseball. those games are usually too low scoring. it works against teams like the texas rangers because they play a lot of high scoring games. those games are less likely to end as a 1-run affair so you are usually safe.

Another idea to use in combination with this (possibly):

Determine what percent of games with various totals are 1-run games. That is at a total of 7, X% are 1-run games, 7' = Y%, 8 = Z%, etc. Obviously the lower the total, the higher the 1-run game %.

Anyone happen to have this info already?

DMM

1 Run Win Percentages
3 year sample 2005-2007

Great. Thanks.

2 (or 3) questions:

1) Where did you get this? Did you compile yourself?

2) Do you have the count for each? or the % of games at each total?

Thanks again!