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mlb 4/7 - 4/13 mlb 4/7 - 4/13

04-11-2008 , 07:03 PM
PIT -102 1u
CLE -160 1u
TBA -153 1u
TEX -117 1u

Last edited by Poofler; 04-11-2008 at 07:33 PM. Reason: more and more lineups, add tex
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-11-2008 , 07:42 PM
KCA -136 1u
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-11-2008 , 07:56 PM
FU Sabathia. 6 runs through 2 innings?
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-11-2008 , 07:59 PM
Yeah, not betting on fatass again for a while. Prob just variance, but he's come out to start the year like ****. Same thing with Milwaukee offense, who's only highlight is Jason freaking Kendall
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-11-2008 , 08:00 PM
Added:

Houston -174
Minnesota +129
White Sox/Tigers u11 runs
White Sox -101
Dbacks -140

Last edited by gmcarroll33; 04-11-2008 at 08:12 PM.
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-11-2008 , 08:31 PM
Most hits, runs, RBI's Ichiro vs Chone Figgins

Ichiro -140
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-11-2008 , 11:16 PM
Damnit my night sucked. CC Sabathia rot in hell!!!! Had the most money on that one

Tomorrow:

Braves -175. Love Smoltz in this situation if our bats can just start to come alive.
Mets -145
Red Sox -160
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 01:31 AM
Realized I accidentially bet Rangers twice, boo. About breakeven tonight if Hoffman doesn't pitch like a geriatric. 1u plays also screwing the pooch so far. Need to bet fewer small plays probably within MOE of model.

Won't be round tomorrow, so taking lines overnight.

openers posted:

LAA +103 2u
CHN +169 2u
SLN +110 1u

adding:

NYN -137 2u
ARI -133 2u
TBA -117 2u
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 01:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poofler
Realized I accidentially bet Rangers twice, boo. About breakeven tonight if Hoffman doesn't pitch like a geriatric. 1u plays also screwing the pooch so far. Need to bet fewer small plays probably within MOE of model.

Won't be round tomorrow, so taking lines overnight.

openers posted:

LAA +103 2u
CHN +169 2u
SLN +110 1u

adding:

NYN -137 2u
ARI -133 2u
TBA -117 2u
Where are the Mets -137 at?
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 01:38 AM
Was WSEX, looks like it moved after I posted. -140 now.
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 02:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sirio11
Friday plays:

SD -102
LAA +112
CHN -103
DET -106
CHN/PHI Under 9 +115
YTD 24-26 +3.00


Plays for Saturday:

WAS +158
CHN +158
NYY +148
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 03:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brendanb438
Congrats on the good season so far, confused about 2 of your picks though. Did you mean to have Cincy on the ML and Pitt on the RL in the same game?
Quote:
Originally Posted by whipsaw
Yeah, he's done this before, and he intends it. I'm not sure what kind of algorithm he's using that gives him value on both sides.
If you find good value in the +1.5 its actually correct for you to increase your bet size and hedge it with the ML on the opposite side, even if the moneyline is slightly -ev.
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 07:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ctompkin
YTD 22-16 +6.8 units

4/11
First two posted yesterday

FLA +170 2 units to win 3.4 W +3.4 units
FLA +1.5 -125 2.5 units to win 2W +2 units

ATL -154 1.54 units to win 1W +1
ARI -140 1.4 units to win 1W +1
Rays -155 1.55 units to win 1 W +1
Rays -1.5 +140 1 unit to win 1.4W +1.4
LAA +105 1 unit to win 1.05L -1 unit
YTD 28-17 +15.6 units

So far for today, got an early tee time so I'll have to do the rest if any later:

ATL -175 3.5 units to win 2
ARI -141 2.82 units to win 2
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 09:01 AM
ML Bets:
Yesterday: 5-2 +2.95U
YTD: 57-43 +51.9088
RL Bets:
Yesterday: 1-1 -1.1U
YTD: 16-8 +2.5967

ATL -161 3U (HEAVY ROAD FAVORITE VS TEAM ON HUGE LOSING STREAK = BRANDON LANG 100 DIME CALIBUR PLAY)
CHA +119 0.5U
ARI -135 2U
TBA -119 0.5U
FLO +112 2.5U
LAA -105 1U
LAN -120 1U

Tex +1.5 -113.13 1.5U
CHA +1.5 -126.26 2U
FLO +1.5 -174.74 1U
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 09:03 AM
yea what shipit said, i guess it doesn't come across well since i just said 1U, but it was actually just enough to do that

it seems to come up sometimes in low scoring games where i think its profitable playing for the 1 run victory
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 09:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thoughtgang
YTD Totals 3 W 4 L

4/11/08 Picks

Nationals +140
Marlins +165
Oak +145

gl all
YTD 5 W 5 L

4/12/08 Picks

Nationals +155
Cubs +155
Yankees +145
Oakland +180
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sirio11
YTD 24-26 +3.00


Plays for Saturday:

WAS +158
CHN +158
NYY +148
Adding ARI -128
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 11:38 AM
YTD: 45-46 +6.54 Units

NY Yankees +162 1 Unit
Cincinnati +116 1 Unit
NY Mets/Milwaukee Under 7 +103 1 Unit
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 12:35 PM
Taking NYY +159 at a sliver of an edge, going to the game in a few - nothing like sweating games in person. Plus, rooting against the Red Sox.
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 12:36 PM
NYA +161.37 2U
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poofler
Taking NYY +159 at a sliver of an edge, going to the game in a few - nothing like sweating games in person. Plus, rooting against the Red Sox.
Make sure you wear all your Yankee gear and cheer loudly. The Fenway faithful always appreciate that.
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poofler
Taking NYY +159 at a sliver of an edge, going to the game in a few - nothing like sweating games in person. Plus, rooting against the Red Sox.
Yes, I love it, one of the reasons I have to get out of this city and go to live to a real one, this is of course one with all kind of professional and college sports
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rsigley
ATL -161 3U (HEAVY ROAD FAVORITE VS TEAM ON HUGE LOSING STREAK = BRANDON LANG 100 DIME CALIBUR PLAY)
That guy is terrible. How the **** he gets anybody to pay him money for his picks is beyond me and how he got a movie made about such a pathetic handicapper is even more beyond me. When I first started betting, I though he knew way more than I did so it seemed like a good idea to see if I was on par with what he was picking. Then I realized that the guy flat out sucks and is just making a living off of his name from that movie and I'm way better off just taking my own picks and forgetting whether or not to see I'm on par with him. They post his picks everyday at therx.com and I just laugh everytime I see the results. What a joke. But he's undefeated in Super Bowls you know?
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 03:20 PM
risgley; Where did you get ur avatar? My friends think it's hilarious.
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote
04-12-2008 , 03:25 PM
Prop Bet: Most hits, runs, RBI's Manny vs Abreu.

Manny -160.

Manny's career against Mussina .253BA 18 RBI 6 HR 24 hits in 95 AB's

Abreu's career against Beckett .180BA 4 RBI 2 HR 9 hits in 50 AB's

Manny is off to a much worse start than Abreu is, but I'll still give Manny the edge at the plate in this game with the pitching matchups here. Mussina is far more likely to get rocked in this game than Beckett is giving Manny a better chance to be one of the players reaping the rewards.
mlb 4/7 - 4/13 Quote

      
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