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04-25-2008 , 12:44 PM
#226
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Yeah, arbed out 1 unit when I saw +150 at 5dimes. ~ -145 fair imo. Ran a little high, but figured it would - the market went giddy over Gallardo last start, which was a very good one.

Liriano is dead to me.
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04-25-2008 , 02:49 PM
#227
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adding:
bos -115 5i 0.5U
kca -109 5i 0.5U
phi -110 5i 0.5U
atl +112 5i 1U
flo +147 5i 1U
cle +117 5i 1U
col +130 5i 1.5U

and 1U to oak +109 (full game)
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04-25-2008 , 02:52 PM
#228
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nm
Last edited by mersenneary; 04-25-2008 at 02:56 PM. Reason: no arb yet
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04-25-2008 , 02:57 PM
#229
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Why the 5 inning switch? Been thinking about doing the same since I'm just kind of averaging the available relivers that day with closer and maybe one or two more guys more highly weighted. Probably not the best way of doing it.
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04-25-2008 , 03:10 PM
#230
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How do you have Toronto +100 as a 4u play, but KC -109 5i as a play? Either that's the biggest pen discrepancy in the history of the world, or something's wrong.
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04-25-2008 , 03:14 PM
#231
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rsigley
adding:
bos -115 5i 0.5U
kca -109 5i 0.5U
phi -110 5i 0.5U
atl +112 5i 1U
flo +147 5i 1U
cle +117 5i 1U
col +130 5i 1.5U

and 1U to oak +109 (full game)
yeah... following what TomCowley said

Is it that common to bet the whole game one way and 5i the other way?
I think you have 3-4 games that do that.
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04-25-2008 , 03:28 PM
#232
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My guess is that
1) Burnett throws more innings per start than Greinke (~2/3 inning more), and
2) Burnett's extra 2/3 of a inning + Toronto bullpen are more than trivially > KC bullpen

Although in the face of 4u's it seems more strange, as that does seem like a pretty huge edge for a bullpen to matter enough for a KC 5in bet.
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04-25-2008 , 03:29 PM
#233
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you know i thought the same thing but didn't realize it until after i made my bets, been going through my spreadsheet and was going to post about it but then saw everyone figured it was messed up already

i accidently set it up like toronto was facing torontos pitching instead of kc

i don't have labels on all the columns in my spreadsheet and for some reason i'm up to column EE and EF so i got confused

please don't bet those
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04-25-2008 , 03:41 PM
#234
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i think i fixed everything, sorry about it and thanks again

right after i was posting them i noticed they were almost the exact opposite of my other bets

here's what it should of been:

det -110 5i 0.5U
pit +100 5i 0.5U
tba +105 5i 1U
tor -101 5i 1.5U
ari -102 5i 1.5U
oak +101 5i 1U

sorry
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04-25-2008 , 03:41 PM
#235
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rsigley so are your regular bets like Toronto 4U correct but the 5inning lines are all fed up?
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04-25-2008 , 03:43 PM
#236
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yea the regular bets are right, i just added new lines in the spreadsheet for the 5 inning bets today and thats where i made the error cause nothing was labeled, fixed that too

by buying back all the correct bets i cost myself a nice amount of money

lesson learned
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04-25-2008 , 04:02 PM
#237
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The Jays pen at full strength is much much better than KCs. But also you should be able to play much smaller edges on opposite 5i/ML/RL sides than normal.
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04-25-2008 , 04:09 PM
#238
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Openers tomorrow:

FLO +154 1u
COL +166 .5u
LAA +113 .5u
Last edited by Poofler; 04-25-2008 at 04:14 PM.
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04-25-2008 , 04:40 PM
#239
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was it KNOWN/assumed arod would play today?
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04-25-2008 , 04:56 PM
#240
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yes, he was supposed to be back with the team, basically healthy, but wouldn't play Thursday with the intention to get back in there Friday
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04-25-2008 , 06:12 PM
#241
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PIT +100 .5u
HOU +123 .5u
NYA -127 1u
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04-25-2008 , 06:44 PM
#242
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Adding: NYY -132*
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04-25-2008 , 06:54 PM
#243
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NYN -109 1u
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04-25-2008 , 08:01 PM
#244
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Milwaukee -170. Just for you Poofler. What a stupid price I let it jump too before taking it too. -140 to start and I'm being a square and taking it at this price.
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04-25-2008 , 08:18 PM
#245
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hrmm we are facing the immortal tim wakefield and are down 2 with a very solid hitter up. yeah lets steal 3rd. ****ing idiots.
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04-25-2008 , 08:24 PM
#246
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thank god wakefield is in a dome or he would have 9 walks by now
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04-25-2008 , 08:36 PM
#247
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"Twins demote Liriano to minors after awful start"

At least I won't be tempted to bet his sorry ass for a while. Thanks, Twins!
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04-25-2008 , 10:37 PM
#248
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variance is a bitch... hit a 3r HR not 3 feet foul please Fielder

LAN -132 1u

uh oh, Gagne pitching

gg monies
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04-25-2008 , 10:41 PM
#249
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well done toronto bullpen
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04-25-2008 , 10:42 PM
#250
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crooked2412
well done toronto bullpen
blame eckstein

was 4-3 and they got a double play to get out of it and he dropped it

and now its out of control
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