MLB 2010 Model Tracking Thread - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Sports and Games Sports Betting

MLB 2010 Model Tracking Thread

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 4

1 2 3 4

Page 1 of 4

1 2 3 4

04-06-2010 , 10:51 PM

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Being heavily interested in sabermetrics, I created a model in Excel to handicap baseball. I'm using this thread to publicly track my picks. I normally bet overnight lines more than day-of, but there may be exceptions if a line moves in my direction. Units are on a scale from 1u to 4u based on my perceived edge.

4/7:
Yankees +130 1u
Twins +135 1u
Cardinals -133 1u
White Sox -164 1.5u
Astros +134 2.5u
Pirates +148 1u
A's -123 2u

Edit: Looks like 5dimes just posted reduced juice lines about five minutes after I made these bets... having never bet before, I thought they would come up significantly later than their normal openers. Lesson learned, I guess.

Last edited by Party; 04-06-2010 at 10:59 PM.

Quote

04-07-2010 , 12:08 AM

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Added:
Blue Jays +181 1u

Quote

04-07-2010 , 06:38 PM

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Added:
Nationals +175 1u

Quote

04-07-2010 , 11:48 PM

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Quote:

Originally Posted by Party

4/7:
Yankees +130 1u Win +1.3u
Twins +135 1u
Cardinals -133 1u Win +.75u
White Sox -164 1.5u Loss -1.5u
Astros +134 2.5u Loss -2.5u
Pirates +148 1u Win +1.48u
A's -123 2u
Blue Jays +181 1u Win +1.81u
Nationals +175 1u Loss -1u

Still waiting on Twins and A's

4/8:
Cubs +183 3u
Orioles +165 1u
Indians +133 1u
Blue Jays +143 1.5u
Twins +125 4u
Pirates +136 1u
Nationals +138 4u
Mets -109 1u

Three big bets in this set of games, and I'm surprised that my model is suggesting so many bets in general - but Imma stick it out and see where it leads me (and where the lines move before gametime tomorrow)

Quote

04-08-2010 , 03:49 PM

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

good luck.

is this your models first season?

Quote

04-08-2010 , 05:43 PM

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Thanks. It is, and so far, it seems to be doing quite well against opening lines just from a line movement perspective - the only lines I took that didn't move to worse odds by the afternoon were bets on PIT and WAS, which echoes what happened yesterday (probably more a result of public perception of those teams being exceptionally low than anything else)

Quote

04-09-2010 , 01:02 AM

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Quote:

Originally Posted by Party

Still waiting on Twins and A's
4/7:
Yankees +130 1u Win +1.3u
Twins +135 1u Win +1.35u
Cardinals -133 1u Win +.75u
White Sox -164 1.5u Loss -1.5u
Astros +134 2.5u Loss -2.5u
Pirates +148 1u Win +1.48u
A's -123 2u Win +1.63u
Blue Jays +181 1u Win +1.81u
Nationals +175 1u Loss -1u

4/8:
Cubs +183 3u Win +5.49u
Orioles +165 1u Win +1.65u
Indians +133 1u Win +1.33u
Blue Jays +143 1.5u Win +2.15u
Twins +125 4u Win +5u
Pirates +136 1u Loss -1u
Nationals +138 4u Win +5.52u
Mets -109 1u Loss -1u

4/7:
6-3, +3.32u

4/8:
6-2, +19.14u

YTD:
12-5, +22.72u

Well... it sure is nice to hit EVERYTHING right out of the gate. I sure don't look forward to the inevitable opposite days.

Quote

04-09-2010 , 01:04 AM

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

4/9:

Yankees -108 3u
Red Sox -146 1.5u
Mariners +140 1u
Indians +135 3.5u
Nationals +129 2u
Orioles -126 2u
Astros +146 1.5u
Brewers -103 1u

Quote

04-09-2010 , 10:26 AM

10_kyle_10

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 669

Very impressive start, keep it up!

Quote

04-09-2010 , 09:33 PM

#10

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Added:
Pirates +148 1.5u

Quote

04-09-2010 , 11:14 PM

#11

pwncakery

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,027

Quote:

Originally Posted by Party

4/7:
6-3, +3.32u

4/8:
6-2, +19.14u

YTD:
12-5, +22.72u

Well... it sure is nice to hit EVERYTHING right out of the gate. I sure don't look forward to the inevitable opposite days.

Didn't have to wait long for that opposite day, ouch. Tough one. You can always bounce back!

Quote

04-09-2010 , 11:25 PM

#12

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

A clean sweep!!!! fml. I'm just going to rule the Pirates a loss, since they're down 8-0 and this way I don't have to wait.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Party

4/9:

Yankees -108 3u Loss -3u
Red Sox -146 1.5u Loss -1.5u
Mariners +140 1u Loss -1u
Indians +135 3.5u Loss -3.5u
Nationals +129 2u Loss -2u
Orioles -126 2u Loss -2u
Astros +146 1.5u Loss -1.5u
Brewers -103 1u Loss -1u
Pirates +148 1.5u Loss -1.5u

4/9: 0-9, -17u

YTD: 12-16, +5.75u

Quote

04-09-2010 , 11:27 PM

#13

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,866

Quote:

Originally Posted by Party

4/9:

Yankees -108 3u
Red Sox -146 1.5u
Mariners +140 1u
Indians +135 3.5u
Nationals +129 2u
Orioles -126 2u
Astros +146 1.5u
Brewers -103 1u

Wow, talk about THUD. My condolences man, that's brutal

Quote

04-09-2010 , 11:47 PM

#14

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Haha, thanks for the condolences, all. At least it came after such a great day... and I can rest easy knowing it'll be damn hard to ever do worse! 4/10 plays incoming...

Quote

04-10-2010 , 12:04 AM

#15

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

4/10:
Yankees -137 1u
Red Sox -118 1u
Indians +146 2.5u
Braves -121 3u
Cubs +112 1.5u
Pirates +245 3u
Mets -119 2u
Marlins -138 1.5u
Astros +130 2.5u

Lastly...
Cardinals +124 4u
Don't bet this. I made the mistake of trusting an inaccurate probable pitchers list (the one on sbrodds) when I ran my simulations, which said Chris Carpenter was starting, then hit the 5dimes reduced juice line the second it was posted... before the Listed Pitchers were even shown. I'm including it, obv, because I bet it and want clean records... another lesson learned here.

Quote

04-10-2010 , 11:26 AM

#16

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Looking crazy good on line movement today with most of these. Clearly I need to wait until daytime to bet Houston, though; their odds seem to only go up from opening.

Quote

04-10-2010 , 11:30 AM

#17

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Added:
A's +160 1u

Quote

04-10-2010 , 02:00 PM

#18

pwncakery

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,027

Pitching change for the Pirates from mccutchen to duke, does this change the projection?

Quote

04-10-2010 , 03:50 PM

#19

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Without going too much into details, it would still be a 3u buy at +245, but at the current US market price of +220 it goes from a 3u to 1u (or 1.5u, if you're more variance-tolerant) play.

Quote

04-10-2010 , 05:05 PM

#20

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Added:
Astros +144 1u

The price has gotten too good to justify not adding another bet.

Quote

04-10-2010 , 11:40 PM

#21

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

4/11:
Indians +183 4u
Padres +225 1.5u
Braves +186 2u
Dodgers +118 2.5u
Astros +175 1.5u
Pirates +201 6u

I cannot stress enough how far off from fair this Pirates line is. It's so ridiculous that I'm breaking the upper bound of my scale to bet on it, after doing my calculations twice to make sure I didn't **** up. I estimate an edge of 44% (!!!!!!!!!!) on this line, no joke.

Quote

04-11-2010 , 01:04 AM

#22

Party

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,075

Quote:

Originally Posted by Party

4/10:
Yankees -137 1u Win +.73u
Red Sox -118 1u Win +.85u
Indians +146 2.5u Loss -2.5u
Braves -121 3u Win +2.48u
Cubs +112 1.5u Win +1.68u
Pirates +245 3u Win +7.35u
Mets -119 2u Loss -2u
Marlins -138 1.5u Win +1.09u
Astros +130 2.5u Loss -2.5u
Cardinals +124 4u Happy Mistake Win +4.96u
A's +160 1u Loss -1u
Astros +144 1u Loss -1u

4/10: 7-5, +10.14u

YTD: 19-19, +15.89u