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Middling bets

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10-12-2009 , 05:35 PM

twoblack9s

adept

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,070

If you have the opportunity to middle bets, should you always take this opportunity. For example, I have jets -2.5 tonight and have the opportunity to bet the dolphins now at +3.5, should I take this? Also, is there more value in middling through the 3 then through the 7?

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10-12-2009 , 05:45 PM

misosouper

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 57

Not sure how profittable this would be.

We're always losing to the juice, yes, but in this case you lose to the juice with a small chance of winning. At least if you just do a straight bet you lose to the juice when you lose.

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10-12-2009 , 06:24 PM

DietPepsi13

banned

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 916

im not a fan at middling at all, but if i am going to do it, it will surely be for more than 1 pt. Something where you bet a whole game and can get a good line on a 2nd half that would be better. but for just one point? to lose 20% no thank you. g/l either way.

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10-12-2009 , 06:50 PM

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

i don't know anything about sports betting but seems to me the only time you should middle is when the line moves so far in the other direction off your estimated "true line" that it's +EV after vig to take that side irrespective of what your earlier positions on the game were. there are probably other extreme circumstances like you got blackout drunk one night and woke up with a SB ticket worth half your net worth and line moves in your favor.

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10-12-2009 , 10:21 PM

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,866

Quote:

Originally Posted by twoblack9s

No

It depends

Yes

You can use this to find the answer to questions like this.

http://www.sbrforum.com//Betting+Too...alculator.aspx

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10-16-2009 , 11:13 AM

jeccross

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 3,807

Quote:

Originally Posted by vetiver

This man talks sense.

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10-16-2009 , 03:39 PM

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

An overlooked advantage of middling is that you can bet faaaaaaar more than you would normally. True you lose more in vig, but if you can get in the middle of 3 or so points, you can bet half your bankroll on one side and half on the other and have a real chance of a huge payday

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10-16-2009 , 04:37 PM

ctompkin

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 660

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poogs

Yes, but only if you can place the bet on both sides at the same time at 2 different books. Otherwise you're risking half your bankroll on whether you can correctly predict a line move. Also, GL finding a 3 point simultaneous discrepancy to middle (really an arb here).

Your only real hope there is to find a local book (probably some kid) who's square/green enough (and willing to take enough action) to offer a stale enough line for you to pull this off on. It is a very rare opportunity to pull this off with online/vegas/any real books.

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10-16-2009 , 04:49 PM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

You can do it if you can accurately predict line movement. Obv you need to be able to have an established skill. But there is no reason you can't add this to your skillset.

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10-16-2009 , 04:56 PM

#10

ctompkin

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 660

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

You can do it if you can accurately predict line movement. Obv you need to be able to have an established skill. But there is no reason you can't add this to your skillset.

This too. But I don't about "half your bankroll". You could buy back if you are wrong, but if it moves sharply against you, you're screwed.

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10-16-2009 , 05:15 PM

#11

H0NEY BADGER

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,650

its pretty simple. if you are paying the standard -110 you need to hit your middle 1 out of 21 times to break even. -2.5/+3.5 > -6.5/+7.5.

i also prefer games with lower over/unders. if one team is projected as 3 points better than another team you have less room for variance in scoring when its two teams who run consistent grind it out low scoring offenses than two evenly matched teams in a shootout.

middling is great for cleaing bonuses. you can risk 1 unit to win 20 but get credit for wagering 20 units. obviously is better to use two sites. oppurtunities are rare where its profitable, but they happen.

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