Best argument for Dortmund is that all of Baffert's horses that shipped in late from California just failed to run. It's possible Dortmund also didn't run well but was still good enough to finish 3rd.

Although getting 6-1 seems near impossible. Anything above 6-1 on the top three finishers from the Derby would be outstanding value.

I agree with this. Think he will get a solid position in corners starting from #1 spot and will look more impressive than he did in the derby. Feel he will win Preakness and get beat at Belmont. Think the Belmont will be fun to bet bc I'm sure he will be overbet and a lot of horses that have better long distance pedigrees will offer solid odds. I did same thing last year betting against CC at Belmont.

Thoughts on this field? It seems weak. The top 3 are good but then there is a massive drop off. I find it suprising that materiality, carpe diem, competitive edge aren't entered into the Preakness.

I wanna bet AP but at 4/5 on the ML think he offers no value. I think betting him would be terrible as he didn't dominate in the derby and win by a large margin.

Waiting on changes for SA BUT this angle may play out and i try to take advantage of it when it comes up.

Best case...PK6 today at SA starts in the 3rd and 1st turf race is in 4th. If no rain and all races kept on turf with the 4th,6th,and 8th on turf today IF the rain comes after the 3rd and makes it so the turf races have to come off by CA rules once the PK6 has started you are now covered to all runners on the turf races regardless who you have chosen and same thing for the late PK4 today also. Like i said hope it turns that way and i have caught this angle in NY before.

You the Man Honcho.

Any horse that wins offers value. You just have to ask yourself does AP win this race 2 out of 3 times? If the answer is yes nothing wrong with 4/5 imo.

That said I am skipping it. And I do think AP's win in the Derby was dominant. He showed great class to bump, run wide and never give up imo.

Dam- Cautious Giant-joker
Keeps coming up on carry days, still ignored him.

Thanks prickly. Had a decent tourney day on horsetourneys just took down the $100 14 man for $75 woohoo LOL but paid for my other 3 tourney losses but i played well today and i am no worse than 3rd for a couple hundred if JV does not nose me in a Belmont race.

That angle works though and i forgot about it when SA was caught off guard last time about 6 weeks back or more. Did get the Warrens Vendeta place money though few days back which was nice when all you had was a 4 horse field and only pays to place. No Beholder WV draws rail longest prices short field angle and if he just finishes 3rd...Came out right that time,you mentioned one about a month back when i was sick and missed out.

I'm no Honcho, but doing my best to handicap

Pim 5-15-15:

5.) 4-10-8
6.) 7-4-9
7.) 9-1-8
8.) 8-3-2
9.) 7-3-4
10.) 10-2-1
11.) 8-3-5
12.) 5-4-2
13.) 9-1-8
14.) 10-8-2

@honcho

Thanks for the input, I will check out those resources.

I was a bit busy the past two weeks, but I was able to look into screen scraping the data. The primary sites I looked at render heavy on the client side so much so that screen scraping looks to be a major pain in the a**. XML feeds seem out of the question - obviously the betting services in the US don't want anyone capping with +EV

I am taking off today to go down to the Belmont, my first time at a track. Will be there fri/sat for the big race. I hear a lot of people go and get sh*t faced Saturday, but I will try to focus on making money, for the most part. I will try to cap as much as I can this morning, when I get there I want to enjoy it and watch the horses; pre-race and during the race.

Looking @ race 1 today, The 8 is listed at 4-1, great workouts, competitive speed, and the jockey and trainer seem to be very good. Additionally, it's a short race and the 8 horse likes to get out early. The other horses which are first time racing maidens have lower ranked jockeys and trainers, so I would throw them out. Also, the maiden special weight horses run against better competition, so the 8 here looks pretty solid, and book odds the 8 is a steal at 4-1.

I see race 1 as a 5 horse race - 8-10-9-4-5... being a maiden race though I wouldn't bet exotics because you never know who is going to come in 3rd or 4th. I just feel the best horse is the 8, and per the book odds he is the 3rd favorite which currently seems to be a good value.

I will cap the rest of the races in the morning at the track. As a total novice, feels like I need to spend an hour capping each race... really don't have the time for it, but for big races I think it could possibly be somewhat worthwhile. I do though seem to very much enjoy looking at the numbers and trying to chart out each race.

Thank goodness! Be nice to see some posted winners

Hope everyone follows suit and post their plays/picks and hope you crush it today Sluss.

jshar NP and good luck on your research man and kick some butt today and tomorrow. I am sure Belmont will be a great time on Pimlico day or just about any day for that matter.

Tournament heavy next 2 days with today Belmont and Santa Anita and tomorrow the tournament covers 4 tracks over 12 races.

If it's an off track, does AP become an even bigger favorite?

TripleH, IMO you hit the nail on the head. I think AP and his connections are set to make a run at the TC. The Zayat's have so much money they surely can't be looking to just up the stud fee w/ a Preakness win. They stable reminds me of a rich, old and successful businessman who would like to leave a legacy in his hometown then makes some big donations and gets his name on a few buildings. IDK, just my .02.


That being said, to get some more public interest in a dying game I'm all for this run and may jump on the chalk train for the first time EVER (besides SMARTY JONES my #1 All time favorite horse). Currently on lifetilt from a -1k day on Wednesday but today my friends is a new day.

Good luck tomorrow everyone. Will post my chalky tri play tomorrow and my one $25WP Longshot bet.

Black Eyed Susan today

3 horse exacta box

Keen pauline , include betty, ahh chocolate

Tomorrow, it doesn't look like much to cap. Can AP get outside easily enough without wasting too much energy, or will he gamble on the front the whole way..... firing line looks easily 2nd best to the rest, possibly can match AP today, looks like he should also improve off the derby. Forget the rest of the field.

I think Danzig will make an interesting play and where my win money will be going.

Not sure I understand ahh chocolate today but good luck to all. I'll be doing a BSE/Preakness double trying to beat AP. 1,5,8,9/8

The rail was not the place to be IMO, and his minor bout with Colic could not have helped him. And the pace was not slow by any means.

1 3/16 and a firmer track, with more time to recover should favor Dortmund.

I don't see AP improving; I think the Derby took a lot out of him. I'm more worried about Firing Line.

The coolest Cat. The King of Cats.

grenzen excellent job. way to throw out the fav. I hope u bet the tri as well. west coast horses who took the far trip late didn't do so well. johnny v and drayden van dyke did great trevor McCarthy as well. bens cat won for the new hall of famer. hope west coast looks better tomorrow with horses who have been out here. the ones who shipped in late from far. stay away.

Well Done!!!

A good horse can make even the dumbest ass look smart.

Preakness

$2 Superfecta: 1/8/247/23457.

Gonna be a great day tomorrow. Playing everything

I appreciate this. It's not that I didn't like AP because I did. The horse is an absolute beast but I look for value. Favorites only win at like a 20 percent clip in this game. So there was no way I was ever going to have a win ticket on him. As I said a few weeks ago, I thought the Triple Crown wager on him was the way to go and I'm still alive to that. I just couldn't bet him to win. Not at the price he was going off at in the field he was facing. So I created a little value by hitting the double and by doing that I covered all of my losing bets on the race and I'm free rolling on my $150 Triple Crown wager.

Today is now tomorrow Best of luck to all itt and lets get the hell after it today fellas. 300K PK4 races 2-5,and the PK5 @ 500K races 9-13 and the 1.5M late PK4 races 10-13.

My thinking for race is this...Why the hell did i even hear about the colic on the 25th for Dortmund if it was no big deal as Byk professed all week after on his radio show. BB does not use excuses and he did not need to offer the info up at all but he did and also added there was a few moments they thought they may had to scratch. Just think i would of never heard this if there at least was not something to it and maybe i am looking for a reason to give an excuse to an absolutely perfect trip i thought he had in the KYD. But i am a loyal guy and he deserves my backing again today being Dortmund so he is my guy again today but i will have AP included in my exotics on top also. I think AP may go to the front and pull a Keen Pauline on everyone today and if it gets sloppy he may do it bouncing over the track like at OP earlier in the yr.

Tournaments all day on horsetourneys but just pick&pray so i can hit the pools today.

I made my first ever horse racing wager yesterday for Preakness. I didn't really know what I was doing. I was kinda rushed at the machine and panicked. I ended up with a trifecta with the 1,2 and 8 horse boxed for 3 dollars. So it cost 18 dollars. How big of a fish bet is that? If they all do hit what kind of money would I win? I'm assuming not much because they're mostly favorites.