Dont agree,but thats horseracing. Look forward to seeing your capped card for the BC Omaha,havent seen one as of yet from you,or even a few key plays from a top of the line money making handicapper would be appreciated.

I dont think there is any way I'll play any money to win on Z nor was I going to even include her in multi-race exotics but on further thought theres no way I can throw her off a pick 4... She has a ton of heart and a sick attitude - That big horse knows she is the boss... Exactly why I pounded Tiznow both years he won the classic..I honestly would love to see her win...

Waiting to see how the Euro's work this week before figuring out who my bet is...but the ones I'm leaning towards are RVW, Mastercraftsman, Twice Over, and Richard's Kid.

I don't understand how Zenyatta can even be in the equation for Horse of the year.

In a year where there's a 3YO filly that won the Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell and Woodward and a 3YO colt that won the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup, people are going to vote for the winner of Milady, Vanity, Clement Hirsch and Lady's Secret?

Even with a win in the Classic, I don't see how her resume stacks up. This is not a lifetime achievement award, it's Horse of the Year.

I couldnt agree more,and have been saying the same here all summer for RA as lock for HOY. I know i said that she (Zenyatta) could possibly pull an upset for HOY if she wins the BC Classic,but the more i thought about that the more sure i am wrong.

no question Rachel is the horse of the year and trust me Zenyatta will not win the classic i am 100% sure of that. and i make money i am not a huge winner just a winning player. very diksciplined though.

Watching the BC draw on HRTV.com right now live,will let everyone know what the post/odds are for the BCC as soon as it is made......just heard a very very good BB horse Lookin at Lucky drew the 13 post,lol....8/5 also on him

Well SOB!!!...Damn HRTV.com feed broke up huge,so no idea for sure but i think Big Z got the 4 hole,and is 5/2....sorry couldnt get anymore,POS hrtv.com keeps breaking up...Get your stuff together guys!!

100% sure huh? Someone with the word King in their name should know only 2 things that are certain, hookers and coupe devilles.

Zenyatta is a hard horse to get a handle on numbers-wise because she only exerts herself during a short portion of the race. She rallies into the turn, sweeps into the lead and then shuts it down. In other words, she only runs as hard as she has to. And she's always given the impression (to me, anyway) that she could be even more effective @ 1 1/4 miles. Owns a sparkling record over the surface (obviously), and never fails to fire. Ignore her at your own risk.

Asking her to go 1 1/4 and against the guys for the first time may be asking a little to much. But I'm not going to say she's 100% sure not to win. Thats asinine. I was actually going to back Careless Jewel for a small play had Zen been in the Ladies Classic.
Anyway....should she win it, she'll rank as one of the best mares ever. In turn will likely give Zen horse of the year. Duh.
I'm going to take the risk and not back her in the Classic. I'll have her in my exotics though.

+1
Perfect observation imo,couldnt of said it better myself.

Discreet and M. Honcho,
Thanks for the analysis. If Zenyatta goes off at 3-1 or better im going to put in a BIG WP bet. Like Gio ponti as well, and monitering the Euro's for the exotic's. Good luck guys.

It looks like concensus is Gio Ponti may be the best value. Any opinion on whether to buy at 12-1 (current bodog future) or wait until post. Thanks for any feedback

If you are interested in a 3-1 W bet, that is the current rate at bodog futures.

Classic is really setting up as a great betting race, albeit for some strange reasons, the surface and a total void at the top of the American handicap division.

Your two favorites are going to be an undefeated mare that is facing males for the first time and has never gone the distance and a turf horse with sore feet.

Seems like a great scenario to bet against, which means they'll probably finish 1-2.

Clay i dont do anything offshore,nor do i give out advice how you should wager your own money. That said,i like Gio Ponti a bunch,and i remember clearly her run over the Pro ride this year at the 81 day SA meet that started Dec 26th. My virtual stable notes said, "Won for fun,crazy turn of foot last 150,took off like he was on grass,very impressive!" I know Gio will be 1 of my hedges in the BCC,and only the big 3,and the BC do i ever do this,but theres to much value to not make more than 1 win wager in the race. Everyone here knows im AI on Big Z,just not sure to what amount till i see her post-parade.

I will post my Friday picks early enough in the morning,hopefully not to many scratches. I again just give my picks as to what I think,and what IM going to play,i will NEVER tell anyone else who they have to use,or tout anything to anyone,i know it aggrevates the hell out of me when people do it here.

Now to the fun,i am huge excited for Friday to get this going.

I think it's safe to say that we all appreciate your insights on horse racing in this thread. gg you.

much thanks to you, my friend.

3-1 on Zenyatta will be stealing. She won last year's BC Distaff like it was a cheap claiming race. Completely in hand. I'm not sure of her final quarter, but it had to be in the :23 neighborhood. I don't see that kind of finishing ability in the other horses here. Pro Ride suits her perfectly. I understand why Jackson avoided this race. Whether she can overcome her recent apparent lackluster form and 1 1/4 mile distance are the only question marks IMO.

I also like Mine That Bird at 25-1 or better, and Einstein at 20-1 or better.

Thanks for the feedback bud.. i will def be checking out this thread saturday to see what you decided to do.. GL!

once again if zenyatta is in the money i will eat my shoes. Not including the superfecta(4th) she is no way winning this race she is the easiest toss in the race. 3-1 LOL i will give you 5-1 right now.

Not that I would let you book it, but I don't think you want my action @ 5-1. I already got a play on Rachel Alexandra winning HOY so it's just a nice hedge with superior odds.

Started handicapping for Saturday. Can't make it out to the track to watch, so going to put my bets in early. I hate doing it this way because I can only play odds of the MLs. Here are my early picks, haven't finished yet. Bear in mind, I am an amateur and only go out for big events. I know you shouldn't play every race, but I do anyways.

Oaktree:
1.) The Damascus
3-5 Ex box. Ship the chalk

2.) Juvi Turf
2-4-11 Ex box. I hate betting shippers, but there's not much class that's raced domestically here.

3.) Turf Sprint
Haven't settled on my final bet yet. I think California Flag is going to get beat and will be heavily overbet, so room for value here. I'm eyeballing the 1-7-12 and will probably put a couple WP bets down.

4.) Cup Sprint
1-5-8 box. For some reason I have a hunch that Capt. Candyman Can will be there.

5.) Cup Juvi
I'm going to get flogged for this, I think D'Funnybone gets beat. Hasn't stretched out to 1 1/16, has never run on the synthetic, and is an east coast shipper. Great value potential on the 4 (at the ML of 8-1), so I'm going to do a nice WP on him. Unfortunately I have a hunch he's going to get bet down to 4-1 or 5-1.

6.) Cup Turf Mile
3 WP. ML says 6-1, so hopefully it stays that way. I have a stupid bias against euro shippers.

7.) Dirt Mile
Stands to be a very interesting race. Normally I like Bullsbay, but he's gotten blown out in his two synth performances. Really eye-balling the 3 (Midshipman) and have a strange hunch that the 2 or the 5 could be there.
3 WP. $2 WP on 2 & 5.

Handicapping 8,9,10 tomorrow. Feedback appreciated, don't go too hard on me!

A FEW NOTES ON FRIDAY'S RACES SINCE I CAN'T SLEEP...

Marathon
I like the 5-6 to win. The longshots look to have little chance in this race with a slow to moderate pace likely. I think the 5 and 6 run together and move whenever Frankie decides it is time to go. Horses underneath I will use 2-4-7-9.

Juv Fillies Turf
I like the 8-11 to win. Interesting the 8 was purchased for $417k while the 11 cost $5k. This race looks like it could be a wild stampede - and I like the 4-5-6-7-12 underneath.

Juv Fillies
I like the 3 to win. A likely favorite with the right running style for this race. Tyler Baze should get a nice ground saving trip. The obvious underneath horses I think are the 4-6-7-10-11, though any of these could step up and win the race.

F&M Turf
I like the 6 to win. I think Forever Together may be left with too much to make up in the stretch - with Midday getting first run and Henry Cecil talking up how much this horse will like the firm going. I also think Magical Fantasy left it on the track last out. We will see.

F&M Sprint
I like 9 Ventura to repeat. This should be one helluva race and I think Ventura needs a :44 flat half. May not be worth betting as outcome could be very chalky, but 9 is a single in my very cheap pick-4.

Ladies Classic
I like the 1-8 to win. If Music Note softens up the 1 it could open the door for the 8 running late. Careless Jewel looks like a freak and if they let her dictate the pace to the half good luck catching her.

Those are my thoughts - a bit chalky I know but as Jay Cronley says "the value horse is the one that wins." What do you think?

We really should start a Breeders Cup Fri and Breeders Cup Sat thread.

TripleH....On the Ladies Classic, what are your opinions on Mushka and Life is Sweet, for some reason I just cannot get off these horses. I do have the 1,8 as my As but think that those other two horses might be there to challenge.

BREEDER'S CUP FRIDAY CARD PICK FOUR

6) 1-2-3-4-5
7) 8-9
8) 1-3-5-7
9) 2-6-9-10-11-13

240 combinations x $1 = $240