This is what I was thinking yesterday. If Tonalist had run in the Derby, nobody would even know who Coburn is.

Jaash also make an excellent point in that Medal Count ran in the Derby and finished ahead of CC.

"precocious speedballs" itt..

lol

1.5 mile races on dirt are pretty rare. They do exist. 1.5 mile races on turf are a lot more common, even in the USA.

The USA is kind of the odd man out in horse racing, because we race mostly on dirt. In the USA, sports are a business. We don't have stuff like "relegation" in our pro leagues because our sports have less to do with tradition or the community and more to do with making money. Running the horses on dirt leads to more horse injuries and deaths, but dirt tracks can be used again and again. You can have a long, continuous meet with many races. And they are "all weather" tracks. The turf tends to get torn up, so you can't hold too many races in a short period of time over the same turf.

In the USA, the horses are bred to run on dirt and at shorter distances (for the most part). In other parts of the world, the horses are bred to run on turf and to have more stamina. Most of the horses who ran in the Belmont will never run 1.5 miles again. First off, many top horses retire early now (much more money in stud fees than in winning races). Secondly, they are not bred to go that distance. Most of the prestigious races with big purses are in the 1.0 to 1.25 mile range. There are some biggish purse races that are 1 3/8 miles or 1.5 miles, but not many. And most of them are on turf.

To give you an idea, the most prestigious race in Australia has a purse about 3 times that of the Kentucky Derby (~$6M), is run on turf, and is 2 miles long. Worldwide, there are many huge races run on turf at distances of 1.5 miles and longer. This includes Europe, Japan, and Australia. Even places that commonly use all weather tracks, like Dubai and Hong Kong, have long distance turf races with large purses. In the USA we don't breed for that. That's why you see a lot of European horses coming here to win turf races.

Another thing about breeding in the USA is that you want a horse who is "precocious", meaning they reach something close to their prime as a 3 year old. You don't want a late bloomer. It's apparently a terrible way to breed horses, considering that so many generations of selective breeding have resulted in SLOWER horses. But the economic incentive is to have a horse that will be successful as a 3 year old and then get into the breeding shed. Some horses have won 2 legs of the triple crown and then went on to struggle at the next level. Many of the most prestigious horse races, including all 3 TC races, are limited to 3 year olds. The best horses are actually the older horses. Occasionally a great 3 year old will be able to beat older horses consistently. But you would expect that same horse to have room for improvement as he ages.

SGV like I have been saying the people drama part of the game is such a bore and I just wont take part in listening to it because it flat out does not affect the outcome of the race. I saw a video or 2 and I believe my initial poker read on the guy was correct and he is an emotional guy who has never had to deal with success before and his mouth was running faster than his jogging brain could catch up with. Rosie I like myself a lot and I am not trying to tell you how to feel because that's dumb but B3 makes valid points and I enjoy how aggressive she is myself.

If I was not vegan I would not want a day off because I am ready to give er hell again this week. Lost H2H to solid player yesterday by $1.60 his 7/2 paid more than my 7/2 and we both were on the winner in the last so that was that. I was in position to cash if I take the fav in the bigger SA tourney and the book I would assume says the math says take the fav here but by my eye told me otherwise and the math was right and I missed cashing because of that decision and finished 9th. Just trust my eye most of all and cant change that about me.

Wiper found our thread uggg...who lowered the rent around here? Nice to see you in these parts.

A horse who I respect very much is running at Presquie Isle Downs tonight. I was surprised to see that he was running on a Monday until I realized that it's a 100K sprint race (Which he also ran in last year). His name is Sum of the Parts. I have been on this horse since he broke his maiden at Churchill in 2011 and have been fortunate to catch him at some nice prices. Unfortunately tonight he is installed as the 5/2 ML favorite but IMO if you can get 8/5 on him its an absolute gift. This horse is super fast and I like the fact that Leparoux made the trip to ride him. His contenders are nowhere close to him class-wise. There is a ton of speed in the race, so I like that he draws the outside post and I see him either in the lead or less than a length from the lead by the time they run the first quarter which will most likely be in 21 and 3 or somewhere around that. Lep usually puts away his French strangling tactics when riding Sum and I think he will continue with those tactics tonight. A rare Monday play form me...I usually don't pimp small priced horses but I feel pretty confident...Lets see how wrong I can be...

PS... As a huge Ramsey Farm fan I'll be sick if the 9 Mish Mosh beats me.

I see the numbers and I know what she has done at her home track, and with top shelf horses. but in a horse race where there equal horses, id choose other jocks. id say the same thing in this instance and rafa bejarano. hes the king out here but in the big races with the big money on the line, hes had top mount and cant get it done with the big 4 or 5 jocks. that's all. I see a rosie lock in a reg race ill bet it. sorry I didn't right all my feelings down and explain myself all the way at first.

Again. I'm a horse betting noob , but I openly faded her all Saturday. My friend was saying exactly that.

Jesus... is Presquie Isle Downs timer right? Did they really just run the first quarter in 19 and 4.... I thought I was home free until I seen that time pop up... If that time is right, Sum of the Parts ran incredible to hold onto second place... But unfortunately that don't help me. Looooooooooooosah

I got beat by a horse who decided to set the track record tonight... Blah

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...060914USA5.pdf

Is betting place in these type of situations a leak ? The party I was with ,all took the 8 to win but the gambling nit in me deviated and put half to win and half to place . I understand that it went off at 28-1 (I believe I got 11.6 for it to place ) , but if you feel he is in that big an advantage , was placing your horse at place that bad a move ?

With regard to the Belmont 2014 it is an object lesson that there would be a huge underlay in the race, yet the underlay was IMO (maybe false) CC was the most likely winner.

those of you that are struggling at profitable horse betting, a bad favorite can be a very nice staring point. There is no better way to overcome the rake than a bad favorite.

S.V.

I'm confused because its showing that the 8 went off at 61-1. Not sure how you only got 28-1.

In your opinion how was CC the most likely winner? Given that in the Belmont the AVG odds of the winner over the past 10 years is something like 15-1 and a TC hasn't been won in 37 years I would have to disagree with you.

He means that out of the 11 horses, CC was the one with the best chance to win.

Im sorry , i meant in the belmont stakes race.. my original question was , is it wrong to be the place if you feel strongly about your horse.

I said the same thing when watching las nite...lol. Im thinkng that has to b the fastest first qtr in NA racing history. Breaking the track record def helps verify it a lil bit, but tbh, its not like the #2 was 10 lengths back getting the best of it, & as impressive as SOTP was, the #2 was that much more impressive in winning. But 19 showing up on the monitor def got a holy **** outa me.

Depends on the person... I personally never bet a horse to place... These days I rarely bet to win... I'm mostly a pick 4,5, and 6 guy with the occasional win bet.

This post made me literally laugh out loud because I felt the same exact way.

^^^ jus wanted to add to what i said... Cos after thinkn bout it a few more mins, i remembered how condusive the track was playing towards closer/stalkers & working against front runners/pace setters... So im prolly not giving enough credit to SOTP for the game race he ran in defeat. Fwiw

equibase chart showing 22:16 first quarter, but same final time...I've seen these crazy split times show-up on the live race feed from time to time. I thought I saw an 18:xx on one race last Saturday...wasn't really paying attention to where though.

CC was the most likely winner IMO because there was no other horse that I could give such a designation. But he was a huge underlay, since I thought he should have been 5/2 ish. But whatever. My opinion is irrelevant regards to my my estimation, but of course the general case is true.

If anyone can identify a .85 favorite like CC and you genuinely can project a horse as a more likely winner, you will make huge amounts of money.

The stats you stat are not very relevant. If Secretariat in his prime were to be reincarnated, it would not matter whatsoever what the average odds and how long since the triple crown was won. He would destroy that field, period (assuming he was sound and ready)

The Belmont as an object lesson. In order to make consistent profits in horse racing, you must find dead money to overcome the rake. Sometimes that shows up in an over bet favorite.

S.V.

Yes, I meant that, which doesn't mean I was right. In fact, the less right I was about that the bigger overlay I had on the horse I did bet Isn't finding bad favorites the way to go?

Yes.

What do you mean the stats I state are not very relevant? The Belmont in recent years is a race that produces winners with big odds. I don't know how a stat like that can be "irrelevant". The data is below, PT favorites in the Belmont simply do not offer a positive ROI. So by you saying CC was the most likely winner because you couldn't come up with another horse, doesn't mean that he is the most likely winner or the smartest bet. 4/5 as the PT Fav or 3/1 as the PT fav I was always betting against him. So I'm very confused when you say "The Belmont as an object lesson. In order to make consistent profits in horse racing, you must find dead money to overcome the rake. Sometimes that shows up in an over bet favorite." And then go ahead and say CC was the most likely winner. The favorite in any race is never the likely winner let a lone the Belmont.

Now let's take your Secretariat example... Or any horse who in the near future turns into a super horse and runs over the field in the TC...When and if that does happen it certainly doesn't take away from the data... The data shows that in the last 9 years no PT fav has won... So if one wins next year or soon after that, does that change anything? Not at all. A PT fav will win the Belmont again sometime in the near future but if you want to turn a positive lifetime ROI on the Belmont ... Then you would be smart to stay away from the PT favs.

2014 Winner - Tonalist (9.20/1)
2014 PT Fav - Californa Chrome (.85/1) Finished 4th
2013 Winner - Palace Malice (14-1)
2013 PT Fav - Orb (2-1) Finished 3rd
2012 Winner Union Rags (2.75/1)
2012 PT Fav - Dullahan (2.50) Finished 7th
2011 Winner - Ruler on Ice (24.75/1) ***I hit***
2011 PT Fav - Animal Kingdom (2.6/1) Finished 6th
2010 Winner - Drosselmeyer (13/1)
2010 PT Fav - Ice Box (1.85/1) Finished 9th
2009 Winner - Summer Bird (11.90/1) ***I hit***
2009 PT Fav - Mine That Bird (1.25/1) Finished 3rd
2008 Winner - Da'Tara (38.50/1)
2008 PT Fav - Big Brown (.30/1) Finished 9th - DNF
2007 Winner - Rags To Riches (4.3/1) ***I hit***
2007 PT Fav - Curlin (1.10/1) Finished 2nd
2006 Winner - Jazil (6.2/1)
2006 PT Fav - Bob and John (4.7/1) Finished 8th
2005 Winner - Afleet Alex (1.15/1)
2005 PT Fav - Afleet Alex (1.15/1)
2004 Winner - Birdstone (36/1)
2004 PT Fav - Smarty Jones (.35/1) Finished 2nd
2003 Winner - Empire Maker (2/1) ***I hit***
2003 PT Fav - Funny Cide (1/1) Finished 3rd
2002 Winner - Sarava (70.25/1) ***I hit***
2002 PT Fav - War Emblem (1.25/1) Finished 8th
2001 Winner - Point Given (1.35/1)
2001 PT Fav - Point Given (1.35/1)
2000 Winner - Commendable (18.80/1)
2000 PT Fav - Aptitude (1.75/1 Finished 2nd

Two PT Favs in the last 14 years have crossed the line first, so if you want to be on the side of the public on belmont day then you will never turn a lifetime ROI.

Just so people know I'm not red-boarding here is my Ruler on Ice ticket... The other times I hit the Belmont were prior to me having an iPhone so I don't have images of the tickets.