Late pick 4 Hollywood-

458/13/46/6911

Yeah even $0.25 tickets add up if you're going deep, but you have to go deep to get value in P6's. A disproportional # of tickets are weighted toward 1st and 2nd choice ML favorites.

Hollywood Park 7/2/11

5.) 7-8-1
6.) 1-6-7
7.) 12-1-5
8.) 2-4-6
9.) 7-8-3
10.) 3-9-11

Todays card has some excellent races imo,and wish i could include 3 more picks to each race as a few of them are wide open.

singling some 2nd choices and going deep in the (imo) wider open fields

5) 1
6) 1
7) 1,2,4,5,7,12
8) 3,7,8,10
9) 3
10) 3,9,10,11

one more long price in these last two races and we should get a huge p6 carryover tomorrow

CHARLES TOWN .50 late pick four

6) 2-6-7-9-10
7) 3-5-8-10
8) 4-5-7-8-10
9) 4-8

$100

ytd (-3,404)

$20 WS on #1 Rafe in Arlington 5th

ytd -2.77k

^^ HeadQuarters for DEGENS!!! ^^

Hmm 1st race at Hollywood #7 Warren's Peacock is 4/5 despite
a) being bred & owned by Benjamin Warren
b) failing his one time out at Hollywood (big difference between SA dirt)
c) no proof he likes or can run 6.5f

Prefer 7/2 #5 Social Event, seems to really like Hollywood synthetic

haha yeah, honch and i both in the red on the year. i don't necessarily consider myself a degen though, mostly because i associate that word with people who bet way beyond their means and/or knowingly take massively -EV propositions.

variance in p6s is even worse than MTTs in poker though. have four 5/6 tickets on the year, any of which would've put me in the green w/ 6/6. i feel good about continuing to chase occasional carryovers because the effective takeout often becomes 0-10% , and the majority of tickets are people looking to single 4 of the 6 races and never take a ML shot greater than 4/1. if you're consistently beating ML prices in win pools (better predictors of true odds, but P6 selections as a whole usually fall halfway between ML and closing win pool prices) you can be assured your wagers are at least 0EV.

my favorite part of HR capping is before any races start and poring over PP's and unlocking secrets a la Beautiful Mind. even if i have no edge and have paid full takeout on all my wagers, $500 in paid EV is an acceptable price to pay for the entertainment.

I loved reading this.. You did such a brilliant & poetic job of rationalizing why we/you bet the ponies. Id say u have an edge on life more than anything bro.. Speaking of pick6, its great to hear what delmar is doing every sunday through the meet.. If there is no carryover going into the sunday card, they are adding 50k of house money.. If saturdays card creates a carryover, then there will be no 50k added. They also added a head to head wager on the feature race of every saturday card, matchups will b selected by the racing secretary. I like seeing new props offered, its a good sign that we the bettors are being heard. GL

Ya ATS Vet is a pretty cool cat. I gave him crap about one of his TVG tickets he use to put up,and he responded back so i felt bad i gave him crap because he was so stand up about it......Then that made me mad he acted like that,LOL....Vet=Good people.

Shelly calling us degens,thats a good one. I think im close to even or even up a little over the year,but its been a different year than any other,mostly my intrest level is down. I have a daughter starting U of Mich in the fall and my son going to Ferris in the fall for his Jr yr,so lack of intrest and getting them squarred away my capping has suffered for sure,im just not as consistantly sharp as i have been in the past. Why i liked that article and posted it of the gentleman named Pittsburg Phil,he was all out or nothing,and to be consistant again i would have to put in that kind of time,and i havent over this yr. I am getting excited again to get back at it full out,but it will be closer to BC time. Ive proved my talent over the last 3 years,and know what i need to do to be more consistant. When i was laid up it was real easy then,i had a laptop,a tv remote,and thats where i was for the day LOL,so i really got into the ponies then,but to make consistant coin imo you have to do that imo,to be consistant.

I guess also my definition of a degen is someone betting over their heads,and needing action on anything always. I cap often and dont see the play or angle in accordance with my capping and watch as a horse fan and take notes.

Parx Racing

Race 1.

$2pick3
2,7 with 4 with 1,2,5,6

$5pick3
2,7 with 4 with 7

Total $26
YTD+171

Thinking theres gonna be value here. Everything is centered around race2, the two horses that are gonna be taking a majority of the action are #7 Maple Song & #8 Back Alley Deal. They are both need the lead types and with them drawing side by side and wide, there hand will b forced early and i look for them to throw down and beat each other into submission. Our horse #4 Best Affair, has some good angles working in his favor, gets blinkers, hes making his third start of the layoff with a bounce. This is my best angle in racing, in order for this to fit my profile of a 3LOWB (third start off a layoff with a bounce) the horse must run a better than average race off the extended layoff, then in his or her 2nd start they must run 20 beyer digits less than there previous race. Our horse fits the profile like a glove. After being off since oct10 our horse changed hands to Phillop Aristone (16% trainer). He ran him back may31 and he ran a good 4th, beaten 3 1/4 legnths earning a beyer figure of 53, he then made his 2nd start june20, showed early speed and gave way earning a 31 beyer. His lone win came from a stalking trip, and i look for him to set right in behind #7 & #8 and when there paper hearts give way, he will go right by... Well atleast he will in a perfect world.. GL

simply wasnt good enough... Its a tuesday fail.. Gonna tinker with the pick 4 at deleware now. GL peeps

Hollywood Park 7/7/11

1.) 2-6-3
2.) 5-6-1
3.) 4-7-3
4.) 5-8-6
5.) 4-1-2
6.) 11-6-9
7.) 5-1-7
8.) 1-7-10

Todays card has some spotted value to the front 9,and the back 9 looks decent imo. If you trust the #1 Rollerskates enough in the last to single,you could spread some in the other legs and catch some value possibly as in my capping on todays card have the 2nd,5th and the 6th as wide open races of corse imo.

**Just a couple of additional notes to todays card. The #6 horse Legal Victory in the first is sired by Lawyer Ron,first foal of his i saw on the track myself. Lawyer Ron if i remember correct a few yrs back set a track record at either Monmouth or Gulfstream,and also won at Oaklawn. LR was a solid versatile horse.

In todays 6th race there is a Street Sense filly 1ster also going off named Pogonip.1st offspring i have saw from this 07 Ky Derby Champ.

Arlington P5 w/ 9k carryover. Never singled a 20/1ml shot before.

5) 3,4
6) 3,6,7
7) 3,5,7
8) 4
9) 2,3

$18

Has any1 played the .50c place pick 6 @monmouth?? With the big fields on most days, its a bet that has my wheels turnin.

HOLLYWOOD PARK late night .50 late p4

If there are scratches, I'll come back and amend it.

5) 4-5-6-7-10
6) 5-6-7-8-9
7) 4-6
8) 1-5-8

$75

ytd (-3,479)

P5 Carryover @ Calder:

7) 1,7
8) 9
9) 5,6
10) 1,2
11) 2,8,9

$0.50 => $12

So sad 10th got taken off turf, ML's were so wrong.

HP p4

5) 4,6,7,8,
6) 3,5,7,8,9
7) 4
8) 2,3,5
$30

Going with Setsuko and Mission Approved in Hollywood and Man O'War today.

BELMONT Race 9

$5 ex 5/1-4

$11 ex 5/3

$21

ytd (-3,500)

CHARLES TOWN RACE ONE

$2 WIN 2-6

$2 PLACE 2

$1 exbox 2-6-8

$1 ex 6-8 with 3-6-7-8

$18

ytd (3,518)

6 win pays $5.80

6-7 exacta pays $19.70

RETURN $25.50

ytd (-3,493)

Hollywood Gold Cup -

I'm betting #7 First Dude.

Not betting a lot or anything, but I think he'll get a good trip, and I hope he can find a spot at the top of the stretch and beat Twirling Candy to the wire.

$20 to Win