A couple bets at Parx today... What can I say, I like the minor league tracks.

$1 Pick 3
1.)5, 6, 7
2.)4
3.)2, 5

$6 wager

$0.50 Pick 4
5.)1, 2
6.) 3, 9
7.) 1, 3, 4, 7
8.) 4, 6, 7

$24 wager


YTD: -80

Thanks Kev,that was an excellent read. I was hooked after the first few paragraphs,and it really helps put things in perspective on how important horse racing is,and how little human life means.

Pegasus Thoroughbred Sales (I'm just C/P from another forum, but I've mentioned this b4 here)


Located in Redmond Washington is a beautiful horse training and rehabilitation center. The operations Is called Pegasus, and is owned by prominent horse owner Mark Dedomenico. The operation is top class and Dr. Dedomenico shelled out approximately 25 million to build it. It features a 5/8 mile polytrack (with starting gate), multiple barns, a polytrack arena, equine swimming pool, aqua tred, eight eurocisers, and much more.

Today was a Preview of the 19 horses that are for auction tomorrow. These horses are out of such sires as Stormy Atlantic, English Channel, In Excess etc…. for a full list go here: Pegasus Sale
One important note: All these horses are 2 year olds in training, and have at least 90 days of training behind them.

I arrived at noon, accompanied by my mom and her boyfriend who is part owner of a couple horses here at Emerald Downs. From 10-1pm the horses were available for inspection in their stalls, and could be brought out to walk, and get a closer look at. The horses all looked beautiful, and I got a better understanding of what the people are looking for when they watch the horse ie: the knees and how straight the legs are. A couple horses reared up in the stalls, but other than that most were well behaved.

At 1pm we moved out to the track where we got to watch the horses gallop. They came around twice on the track. Despite the rain, and wind it was a great experience, and great to see such beautiful animals at work. My favorite horse I saw was hip 10: Kokanee Kid, a Florida bred horse out of Milwaukee Brew. He first caught my eye in the barn, where he displayed a bit of spunk and temper. On the track he ran with a smooth gait, and power.

Unfortunately I have a mid-term tomorrow, and can’t attend the sale , but I am looking forward to see how the horses sell, and plan on following these two year olds through their year.

Sam Houston racetrack is having MONDAY 0% takeout rolling pick threes on twinspires, I think every horseplayer should bet into these pools to show the industry that we care about takeout rates. I played just about all of the pick threes.. pretty profitable to boot!!

You can count me in on that for Monday with you Kev,glad to see you on board Also i was kidding in my last post about your article,sure you knew,but just incase. I could imagine being a teller and a guy has an eye ball hanging out playing a reverse wheel in the 4th,LOL......Ofcorse during the superbowl i LOL'd the loudest when they played the Groupon Tibet commercial,i still think its great,so i may not be right i guess. Politicaly correct i am NOT,and will NEVER be.

Last night, I had a dream that Trumpet Player Jay won a race. And today, I was notified via virtual stable email that he is running on Thursday (SA, Race 4). Coincidence, I don't think so....

Is it sad that I dream of mediocre horses???

Lucked out at the first race at Parx today. They disqualified the 6 horse in the first race making my exacta a winner. It wasd a tiny payout, but still. A win is a win.

Anybody know what current odds are available for:
1. Any horse winning the Triple Crown this year.
2. Uncle Mo winning the Triple Crown this year.

Field 5/2
Uncle Mo 9/2

Last i read on bloodhorse dated today when the pools opened.

^^ uncle mo 9/2 is the price to win the derby.

I'm interested in the odds for the entire Triple Crown. I'm thinking that at least in terms of public opinion, people are drastically underestimating the chances of a horse winning it. They're being fooled by variance. The fact that no horse has won it in the past 32 years is a complete fluke. Out of the 10 or 11 horses that won the first two legs during that period(not to mention those who either won Derby+Belmont or Preakness+Belmont), I think at least 3 or 4 'should' have won the Triple Crown. There wasn't some magical force that caused Real Quiet and Silver Charm to come up just short, or that caused Charismatic to break down, or Afleet Alex to lose the Derby.

My best guess is that in an average year, it's probably about 1 in 10 of there being a Triple Crown winner. Whether the popular perception among racing fans that it's much less likely now than it used to be makes the odds available substantially higher or not is what I'm interested in.

I would say the true odds of a Triple Crown winner are much lower than 10-1. I believe that the 1970s were a fluke then. Horses, especially thoroughbreds, are extremely unpredictable. Only once in a while does a super-horse like Secretariat or Zenyatta (although not a Triple Crown winner) come around. I think that the Triple Crown distances are rough on horses, therefore making it more difficult to win back to back to back. On top of this, three year old horses are not fully developed--this doesn't happen until they are about five years old. The true odds of a horse winning the Triple Crown are more like 20-1.

Thanks Clay,my bad,i didnt see the triplecrown part,answered my own question right though i believe

Atta Boy Roy, the washington bred son of Tribunal, is back on the track. He has two posted works now at Turf Paradise, including 4 furlongs in 45.60 on Valentines Day. Good to see this horse back and running, after getting hurt in the BC Sprint. Could be good betting value in his first race back.

Long time lurker. I made my picks for Gulfstream's PK 6 last night just based on the line-setter's odds+jockeys. Hit 4 of 6 with a ticket of:

4) 3,5,6,10
5) 3,7,9,10,13
6) 1
7) 1,7,9
8) 1,9
9) 3,5,11,12

YTD: -$48

Was curious as to any tips from Kev or Honcho on Gulfstream? Should I just read books/follow this thread/follow Gulfstream?

TIA

First off,welcome to the thread aufan91. I am not sure i have many tips for you for Gulfstream,i know when i cap a day down there i always pay attention to the weather in advance.Gulfstream has large fields and more MTO,or AE than most tracks imo,so if you can anticipate some changes do to weather it might give you a heads up. I like how Gulfstream has been paying out,and Kev recently hit for $1200 there and he would have more info than myself when it comes to tendecies he has noticed there.

Thanks for the reply and the tip Honcho!

I guess the best way to learn is through practice, so here are my planned plays for tomorrow:

Race 1) WPS 8 $15

$2 Pick 3

1) 8
2) 6,16,15
3) 1

$6

0.10 Pick 6

4) 3,4,6
5) 1,8,12
6) 4,5,11
7) 7
8) 16
9) 2,3,9

$8.10

YTD -$48

There is also a carryover in Gulfstream's $0.50 Pick 5. I think it's around $41K...

Honcho hit it on the head with the MTOs and AEs, keep a watchful eye @ GP.

One little note I've been adhering to from watching the meet so far, is not to leave out Solis in turf routes no matter what the horse looks like in the form. Watching his rides, he is almost always well placed in these affairs, many of them wide open.

Good Luck! (i'll be playing that p5 carryover most likely as it is going to be a big 'albeit difficult' one)

The 70s were a fluke, but so is the period since then. I think 10-1 is a reaosonable 'compromise' on the odds...and happens to be just a bit less likely than the actual frequency since people began thinking of the three races as a series.

I do have several other lines of thinking...all of which lead me to believe that the actual odds are somewhere in the ballpark of 10-1. I suspect that the 20-1 you've estimated is probably about what the offered odds are in most years. Of course I'm not sure I want to tie up a substantial amount of money for what could be many years to take advantage of what I think is a very +EV situation.

I did some research, and although I couldn't find any information for this year, I did find an outdated link from 2009 where they were giving Mine That Bird 13/1 odds of winning the final two legs of the TC. This number is perhaps more along the lines of what you were looking for?

On another note, I think the TC has become harder to win over the years, especially as purses have increased. There is a lot more incentive to rest a horse for the Preakness this year due to the $5.5 million bonus that is out there now. A horse coming off a rest is going to have a slight advantage over a horse that ran a marathon in the Derby three weeks before. 13/1 might have been accurate in 2009, but I think that number will change this year...

GULFSTREAM PARK .50 pick five

5) 1-2-8-9
6) 5
7) 1-3-5-7-8-11
8) 4-5-6-8
9) 1-9

$96

ytd +300

Not exactly - that's after he won the Derby, but it's also the odds on one of the longest shots ever to win the Derby...so I'm not sure how meaningful that is for other cases.

Bleh, 8 finished 4th.

Playing the .50 Pick 5:

5) 1,8,12
6) 4,5,11
7) 7
8) 16
9) 2,3,9

$13.50

YTD -$69

Thanks for the tips guys. Let's make some cash