I am in a pool where we had to pick bowl games against the spread, and accumulated points based on the degree to which your pick beat the spread, or not.

For example, if I took Mia -6 and they won by 11, I get 5 points---where if they won by 3 I lost 3 points etc.

With one game left to go, Alabama-6x we all can change our picks, of course without knowledge of what anyone else has.

From 450 entries, this is the payout structure:
1.10,000
2.5,500
3.3,500
4.2150
5.1190

Here are the relevant scores:
1.Villain1--- 199.5
2.SheetsEntryOne---184.5
3.Villain2-----182.5
4.SheetsEntryTwo----166.5
5.Villain3----164.5
6.Villain4---164.5
7.Villain5—151.5
8.Villain6---150.5
9.Villian7---149.5
10.Villain8—148.5
11.Villain9—146.5
12.Villain10-142
13.Villain11-140.5

So basically, so you get the idea, for example---for sheetsentryone to get first place, it must:
`1.Pick the opposite team of Villain 1, which of course i wont know if that happened until the game starts

2.Cover the spread by 8. (because we will win 8 while the leader will lose 8, making up the difference)

I have no opinion on the game at all.

What is my play? My initial idea was to take Bama pick 1 and Clemson pick 2 for this reason----

I was thinking that Villain1 would be likely to take Clemson, but my logic could be wrong----that logic goes as follows:

From his point of view, the only way he loses is if his team loses by 8 points over and above the spread (and obv presuming I took the other side).
I would THINK that he would be more scared of the possibility of Clemson winning the game by 2, than he would be of Alabama winning by 15 (especially with 15 being a tough number), so I would THINK he would take Clemson, but maybe that logic is flawed, or does it even matter?

Thoughts?

The leaders optimal play would be to take Clemson I think. The 8 extra points cross the 7 and the 14 so more key numbers for sure.

Cut in the guy running the pool and take the opposite side