1) Pick one conf of CBB, probably easiest sport to beat, and make it a small one like Ivy or MEAC or SWAC.
2) Read ALL available info on it, know who's graduating, transferred in and out, who's been arrested, who plays hurt, what coach is looking to leave, who has a drinking problem [Orton ldo], who is hated by teammates, is someone too close to the gambling community [Asu, bc, NW, ccny, Kentucky] everything.
3) Figure out where value lies on a certain game. Sure, taking Niagara at -2 close is better than -4 open, but that doesn't make it a value ALONE. Just because Fannie Mae is at a 10-yr low doesn't mean you should put your pension $$$ in there.

e.g. Team xyz is 1-4 in conf, playing a 3-2 team at home.
But, 4 losses in final minute and 10-pt home win over other 3-2 conf team. Team xyz is 5 pts. Is the line off because lazy bookies /bettors say 'Oh, 1-4 v 'good' 3-2 team - line should be 4-6 tonite, etc.'
Generally, an easier one to spot will be like a 4-2 team that 'should' be 6-0, but had bad luck. Or a team that very often covers at home month-in and out. Or a 5-5 team that is covering every spread or just missing by 1-2, clearly that is a good spot to look for value.

4) Before thremp's head explodes, NOW go lineshopping! Take the undervalued team AND the best line.

5) Track the open to overnight to afternoon to tipoff closign lines. Does money come in on Harvard/Stanford because WallSt traders come home after work and bet bet bet without caring for the spread? Does the smart money keep coming in 15 mins before tipoff? Can you get a huge middle on totals from Open to Close like mt2r and I did on VMI last year?
6) Develop a sense of how the lines will move, now if some player gets injured or team suffers devastating home loss or car crash or suspension, you should be able to react as fast as anyone else to that info. Those extra points and half-points add up. This is the hardest part.
7) Figure out which teams will pose a problem for other OOC teams based on style of play like VMI, UAB, Syracuse, Air Force, et al. Does the 'press' team always press, or do they often back off top PGs because they get broken down? That will affect the totals if not the spread for sure! Etc.
8) If you think the line is fair, but find a rogue line, just keep taking the cheap side. No-brainer.

Lineshopping is much easier and faster, particularly if you think the books have the number right on big - ACC, Big East, B10, etc. But with solid 'capping, I can find values I'm willing to make serious %BR bets on that I otherwise would not [this does not happen overnight]. Combine with Kelly = profit.

Calling a line move by 1-2pts from open + line shop for extra half-full point is a huge advantage. Rinse, repeat.

Finally, BR mgmt is the most important skill to have regardless of what some people will tell you. You can get in 2pts better than close and lose 9-10 games in a row...I did just last season. Variance happens.

Naj's post just made this thread great. Nice post. I want to second both a point by perf and by naj. Trends are worthless, and BR management is what kills everyone. You can be amazing at picking winners but if you are betting 60% of your roll each time. You are a goner.

Im stated before, a mix of capping, line movement prediction/reading, LINE SHOPPING, and BR management are the keys.

I dont think being a fantasy expert holds any weight whatsoever, personally. Just because Todd Heap scores 25 fantasy points a game, doesn't mean the ravens are going to cover the spread. Now on the other hand. I think being a good sports bettor can easily transition over to fantasy because you can waive and pick up players based on matchups for their team and the edges you have calculated your team to have.

Ekinnehs,

as others have been unwilling to say, line movement is vastly over-rated.

and, be sure to examine the records of the various posters. many talk a very good game, but cannot isolate a winner if their lives depended on it. you will also often find, the most insolent never post a selection; or, if they do, will claim a win rate that does not tally with the selections they publish. generally, this kind of poster is most apt to ridicule approaches which differ from those most widely accepted; they put purely technical considerations before fundamental considerations; and they often accumulate data for its own sake, lacking any judgment in the relative merits of any single item of it.

this is not poker. and the only thing that readily transfers from that game to this is your ability and determination to win. you must accept as a reality how few winners there are in this game, and how very, very few win major sums of money.

gl

-c

I completely agree with everything, except the 1st line. The only reason anyone can say its over rated, is because they dont know how to use it correctly. Several winners in the sports betting world use line movement including fezzik (who is overrated in my opinion) and rickja, who has gone tout. It is much harder to get good at than say line shopping and in that aspect it is overrated...

BTW, I think cato is just thelyingthief under a different name.

cato is a member of the Crypts, ldo

*continuously*

apparently you don't believe in grammar also

Engrish as a second language

think of it as an extension of the peters principle, or the lowest common denominator. this is akin to asking why some family kitchen table big poker winners can't beat 30/60.. if they could, they'd be doing it instead of grinding out pennies on family night w/ one-eyed jacks wild games. since they can't, they have to stick to winning the smaller games.

this is also the reason why 2/4 players move up to 10/20 games and have their br destroyed. cream rises to the top, an efficient market will always dictate how far up the scale level you can rise before you hit the ceiling..

another factor that was mentioned in yao's book in terms of teaching sportsbetting knowledge and have not been mentioned yet in this thread is that, sportsbetting is different than poker and more similar to a financial market but on a much smaller scale. therefore, if i teach you poker, the chances of you using the same skills against me is small as there are many independent table games going on at once all over the world and what you do is very unlikely to impact me. however, sportsbetting is different in that all the money essentially goes into a one large dependent pool, therefore, teaching you how to spot an edge to bet will very likely have an effect on the same edge i will have over the same bet, as essentially all books (BM and offshore) are interconnected. since sportsbetting market is nowhere near the size of billion dollar financial markets, in some cases, it will only take a few thousand dollar br for you to affect my edge in some way..

some fantasy experts make good money betting props; this seems a logical extension of the method.

-c

I am somewhat new to sports beting. I have been taking it seriously for about 3 months and have had good success thus far. I am up around 30 units since I started. ROI around 15% (that will come down I know). Here is how I started.

1. I read the FAQ many times. In fact, I still read it occasionally to keep myself updated.

2. I ordered Wong's book. Read it twice. It has been instrumental in helping me prop betting. IMHO, prop bets are the best money makers in sports betting. You can find some every week that are 10-15% off. Mainly, I find these in NBA and NFL player props.

3. I discovered some good cappers and I just took their picks every week. Dr. Bob (although only if I get a good line since I don't pay), Rick J, MTTR's POTW, BSP thread, Performity's UFC, Naj's CB system, etc. I would like to become a good capper but that will take time. I would like to stress that I would not take these unless I was getting a good line. Like others have already stressed, line shopping is important.

4. Pride. Or lack there of. Pride is something that is dangerous for any professional gambler. I have been making a good portion of my income for about 8 years through gambling and have NEVER gone busto. One of the things that I have found instrumental for me is my lack of pride. If I needed to drop a level, I did. If it got to the point where I could not beat a certain game, I quit playing it or stopped until I studied more. Don't try to be too clever. Just make money.

That's my .02$

If BR Mgmt is #1 skill, and it is, then learning how and when to drop a level is the most important part of that skill. Good call. You can do everything right and still lose 15-16 in a row. Rare, but it can and does happen.

FYI, upon the release of my book, I received several comments from pros basically saying: "good job covering some topics but not giving away the store. please don't write a follow-up book"

In the same tone as what trixtrix mentioned in his post in this thread, I'll say that its tough finding a coach in sports betting that is worthwhile. Pros aren't going to be happy to give someone else info that may hinder them from making the same bets. Instead of looking to teach others, sports bettors seem to try to gather in equals. For example, a pro may be willing to tell another pro about something knowing that the other pro will reciprocate with his knowledge, and they'll both benefit. But if it is a one-sided relationship, it is not appealing. Of course you could find a coach that doesn't know what he's doing, but then that would be negative-EV to you.

My suggestion is to read as much as possible, including my book - Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting (shameless plug, apologies), Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong (who is also my publisher) and read online forums. The tough part in the online forums is trying to weed out the crap from the good stuff.

Its not easy to win at sports betting for most people. But its not that difficult to win at sports betting for sharp minds.

"please don't write a follow-up book"

Please do.

if you're losing that many games in a row, you're not hitting at anywhere high enough percentage to make money at this game.

accepting as true this forum's belief that 57% win is professional standard, you can expect to see

3 consecutive losses 10% of the time;
4 consecutive losses 5% of the time;
6 consecutive losses 1% of the time;

if you're seeing 15 losses in a row even ONCE per life-time of betting sports you're in the realm of statistical anomaly; OR, you're in fact lousy, and only hitting roughly 33% of your plays. but then, it's also true that most folks are lousy, and would do better tossing darts than selecting winners.

the most consecutive losses i've encountered at this game is 8. and that was a product of a hangover.

-c

57% WTF?!?!?

Also, its more like going 100-200 for an extended period than 15 losses in a row.

I think "continually" is correct.

and it probably should be
"apparently you don't believe in grammar either"

“Continuous” refers to actions which are uninterrupted: “My upstairs neighbor played his stereo continuously from 6:00 PM to 3:30 AM.” Continual actions, however, need not be uninterrupted, only repeated: “My father continually urges me to get a job.”

doh!

Haha. Trix is pwned.

*pwnt*

Ha-ha! Trix is owned. Clear typo their.

continually, continuously (advs.)


Unlike the adjectives, these two are frequently interchangeable, although they preserve some distinctions in much of Standard English. Continuously is used to treat of space: These filaments come continuously from the machine. It is also used of time: It rained continuously for nearly a week; it never ceased. In It rained continually for nearly a week, we usually understand that the rain stopped briefly from time to time.


gg trix

Because after bankroll management and line shopping, proper spelling and grammar is the third most important aspect of successful sports betting.

Can we please [/hijack]?

This thread has a lot of bad advice, but while the discussion was on topic it also managed to pull in a few fantastic posts. I'd like to see if perhaps it could get some more.

As an aside... As I fill the finite space in my brain up with mathaments and other gambling trash, I find my mind using the space dedicated to Engrish as expendable instead of esoteric trivia. Can anyone corroborate this experience?