Does anyone remember if tournament h2h were available last year for this event? Wondering if books are doing them since it’s a handicapped start and following the actual scores

They'll definitely have them. I forget exactly who did what last year but some places counted the handicap towards theirs, most did not. BM already has outright markets up for both the Fed Ex Cup and straight up Tour Champ winners.

oh man, did not know this, yahoo definitely thinks that's a possibility because he's on a huge discount this week, think it's the first time ever where he wasn't among top 5 most expensive options - definitely worth looking into

Seems like H2H markets don't seem to consider the chance of Rory dropping out to be siginificant - they're currently priced normally

Is DJ's 2-shot advantage worth the 2.5k extra price? I don't think so. I ran 4k sims.

Stag Golfer Win DK
-10 Dustin Johnson 23.8% 15200
-6 Webb Simpson 20.3% 11000
-7 Justin Thomas 17.6% 11900
-8 Jon Rahm 16.2% 12700
-4 Hideki Matsuyama 10.1% 9300
-5 Collin Morikawa 7.2% 10400
-3 Rory McIlroy 4.7% 9700
-4 Bryson DeChambeau 2.3% 10100
-3 Xander Schauffele 2.2% 8900
-2 Tyrrell Hatton 2.0% 7000
-4 Daniel Berger 1.5% 9100
-4 Sungjae Im 1.1% 7300
0 Viktor Hovland 1.1% 6600
-2 Scottie Scheffler 0.9% 7900
-2 Tony Finau 0.8% 8200
-2 Joaquin Niemann 0.6% 6300
-3 Sebastian Munoz 0.5% 5900
-1 Abraham Ancer 0.5% 6100
-4 Harris English 0.4% 8700
-3 Brendon Todd 0.3% 7600
-1 Ryan Palmer 0.2% 5400
-3 Patrick Reed 0.1% 8500
-1 Kevin Kisner 0.1% 6800
-1 Kevin Na 0.1% 5500
0 Billy Horschel 0.1% 5700
-2 Lanto Griffin 0.0% 5600
0 Cameron Champ 0.0% 5300
0 Mackenzie Hughes 0.0% 5200
0 Cameron Smith 0.0% 5100
-1 Marc Leishman 0.0% 5000

Hammering Webb outright then with that win% given +950 price in the market?

For me, hammering, isn't that much. But yes, I think I just might.

Everybody's acting like DJ has this wrapped up. He has a two shot advantage over Rahm and three over others great golfers. This tournament is going to be a lot closer than most people think.

I was ready to fire Webb at 15.0, but price was corrected quickly to 12.0. Ultimately went for Morikawa at 21.0 and toned it down.

Morikawa @21.0 1.5 units (20% 1-5)

How's "everyone acting like DJ has this wrapped up"? I saw him around +210 vs. Rahm at +260; hardly implies this is wrapped up.

The Degens podcast, DK Pricing, and golf guys on Twitter. Mind you, it's with the staggered scoring built-in.

Off-Topic Question: I know Rory's child arrived on Monday. Is he playing this week? I can't find anything.

He's playing and at that price there'll be even more overlap than usual for a 30 man event. Cash only for me this week.

Those odds are with staggered scoring; Rahm is a decent favorite over DJ just straight up. Prior stats and public odds are going to give you a much better baseline than podcasts, twitter, and dfs pricing (which can be intentionally mispriced to drive action)

Not sure I can justify gpps this week either. I've had pretty good results on r4 showdown mme and while this is somewhat similar, only a 30-man event + lack of a group at T2 or T3 really hurts the strategy.

DK missed the mark on DJs price too so I expect Rahm to be super heavily owned as well. I have no problem giving them my $ when it's fun to come up with teams, but this week is stupid.

Welp, I was wrong about Webb. +4 thru 5. Lol me again.

I presumed Masters and other cancelled events bets were no action, but finally just looked and see mine listed as pending. Thought it was standard when an event is postponed it's no action, and if rescheduled, only new action counts.

Situation seems a little dubious to me. Have a little negative history where anything questionable always rolls against you ... like maybe he's leaving bets up, charging for loss or cancelling for win. I have Dechambeau at 35/1 from way before his rampage.

FFS Morikawa, my solo bet just has to play the last 3 +1 for the top 5 and goes bogey, bogey, par the 18th.

Will be interesting taking shots on people again with the softer events. Feels like I'm living in a different dimension seeing Mickelson and Si Woo Kim as joint favourites for a PGA tour event.

Steele @26.0 (1.3 units) 20% 1-8
Varner @34.0 (1.05 units) 20% 1-8
Davis @41.0 (0.8 units) 20% 1-8
Higgs @81.0 (0.4 units) 20% 1-8

Not sure if I'm missing something but Andy Zhang is +3300 to be the top Asian Golfer (field of 8 total) and +660 to just be in the top 3 of that 8 man field.

He Monday Qualified in and doesn't have status on the tour right now but he's still a young professional trying his best and he has odds on par with the legacy admissions to the tournament who have stopped playing serious competitive golf

It looks pretty in line to me, but what do I know etc. I've consistently over valued spots like that in the past and just stoped firing them after enough pain.

Meanwhile I need someone to arrive at my house and punt my laptop out the window to resist the urge of firing Spieth this week. How unbelievably tempting.

Couldn't resist adding Clark yesterday @81.0 (0.4 units). Bad price, should have taken 101 on it on Monday if I wanted to fire.

Time for a complete random to have the 4 days of their life and deliver max pain, gl everyone.

Smashed it, wp

Did anyone have a bet on the Rahm vs. Johnson tournament matchup from a couple weeks ago at the BMW? I'd be curious how they graded yours.

^ BM

Seems that Rahm should be a winner here based on Bookmaker's own rules

yea i used chat because it was a decent sized bet and they said the opposite

......name..... win_perc.... top_20_perc.... make_cut_perc

30925 dustin johnson 0.0892 0.5970 0.8244
28237 rory mcilroy 0.0691 0.5793 0.8206
47959 bryson dechambeau 0.0679 0.5788 0.8152
46970 jon rahm 0.0578 0.5769 0.8250
33448 justin thomas 0.0500 0.5620 0.8194
48081 xander schauffele 0.0389 0.4541 0.7485
35450 patrick cantlay 0.0264 0.4287 0.7487
25364 paul casey 0.0241 0.4270 0.7489
56278 matthew wolff 0.0239 0.3652 0.6929
29221 webb simpson 0.0221 0.4201 0.7468
22405 justin rose 0.0213 0.3870 0.7200
46046 scottie scheffler 0.0191 0.3741 0.7138
29725 tony finau 0.0187 0.4023 0.7428
21209 sergio garcia 0.0177 0.3637 0.7065
30911 tommy fleetwood 0.0175 0.3674 0.7110
34360 patrick reed 0.0161 0.3506 0.6949
32839 hideki matsuyama 0.0158 0.3365 0.6858
25804 bubba watson 0.0146 0.3116 0.6643
50525 collin morikawa 0.0142 0.3112 0.6634
52372 cameron champ 0.0141 0.3003 0.6444
32102 rickie fowler 0.0138 0.3242 0.6710
34363 tyrrell hatton 0.0127 0.3100 0.6666
30944 jason kokrak 0.0122 0.3003 0.6619
40026 daniel berger 0.0120 0.3434 0.7052
24502 adam scott 0.0118 0.2926 0.6424
31323 gary woodland 0.0105 0.2424 0.5985
45486 joaquin niemann 0.0104 0.2770 0.6419
28089 jason day 0.0097 0.2822 0.6565
45526 abraham ancer 0.0085 0.2460 0.6105
26329 louis oosthuizen 0.0080 0.2533 0.6271
46717 viktor hovland 0.0077 0.2504 0.6236
37455 si woo kim 0.0075 0.2005 0.5660
47483 will zalatoris 0.0066 0.2123 0.5808
01810 phil mickelson 0.0064 0.1783 0.5263
26476 chez reavie 0.0064 0.2207 0.5976
34046 jordan spieth 0.0062 0.1953 0.5605
39971 sungjae im 0.0059 0.2437 0.6227
27644 brian harman 0.0057 0.1822 0.5431
40098 matthew fitzpatrick 0.0057 0.2093 0.5770
39997 corey conners 0.0056 0.2107 0.5783
52686 rasmus hojgaard 0.0053 0.1991 0.5682
08793 tiger woods 0.0053 0.2004 0.5731
34099 harris english 0.0052 0.1892 0.5550
29420 billy horschel 0.0052 0.1982 0.5716
25900 lucas glover 0.0052 0.2096 0.5868
40006 erik van rooyen 0.0051 0.2026 0.5775
48822 sebastian munoz 0.0049 0.1827 0.5508
33141 keegan bradley 0.0048 0.1898 0.5688
27214 kevin streelman 0.0047 0.1798 0.5448
29478 kevin kisner 0.0045 0.1728 0.5461


assuming a big boost to those who drive it long and somewhat straight and if half of the approach shots are coming from the super long rough the good iron players should take a hit.

SCHEFFLER HAS THE COVID