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07-07-2009 , 01:38 AM

TI-86

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 174

This whole industry is a complete joke
All these lines move on air
I swear if pinny ever went down this whole thing would crash and burn
There is no way you can consistently beat close >70% of the time and have double-digit negative ROI due to variance
If someone could please tell me how to grow a 5 figure bankroll into 6 without derivatives and a PhD in MATLAB and access to dubious historical lines back to 1969 and A-Rod's sex schedule I would appreciate it

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07-07-2009 , 05:04 AM

insanity31

inanity

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 51,956

wat

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07-07-2009 , 09:36 AM

Mr. 33

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 403

Beating closing lines in baseball is overrated IMO....I doubt you'd see those same results with football though.

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07-07-2009 , 01:09 PM

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,866

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. 33

Beating closing lines in baseball is overrated IMO....I doubt you'd see those same results with football though.

Beating Pinny's closing lines in baseball may now be overrated. Beating Matchbook's is not.

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07-07-2009 , 02:09 PM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by kdog

Beating Pinny's closing lines in baseball may now be overrated. Beating Matchbook's is not.

This makes as much sense as saying you'd bang Elin Nordegren but would pass on Josefin.

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07-07-2009 , 02:45 PM

TI-86

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 174

How does one kelly stake steam without a DeLorean?
thx in advance

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07-07-2009 , 02:53 PM

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by TI-86

How does one kelly stake steam without a DeLorean?
thx in advance

You bet the edge you have at that time. How do you stake handicapped bets when adjusting for the information the market provides moving with or against your picks?

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07-07-2009 , 03:19 PM

Rustjive

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 1,311

Thremp stop ignoring my question in your PM box IMO

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07-08-2009 , 01:19 AM

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,866

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

This makes as much sense as saying you'd bang Elin Nordegren but would pass on Josefin.

You still think Pinny is the standard for large market American sports, particularly baseball? IMHO Matchbook has replaced them and certainly for baseball.

Today is an average full card baseball day. Look at the closers at SBR. Pinny doesn't beat Matchbook on even one dog price and while they do have some better fav prices Matchbook still overall averages 1.2 cents better for the whole board. Even books like BetJam, 5Dimes, Bodog and Sportbet are better than Pinny in spots.So who should we be trying to beat?

****All that said, beating Pinny still ain't bad, Matchbook just makes it easier.****

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07-08-2009 , 01:22 AM

#10

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

They have extremely similar no-vig lines.

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07-08-2009 , 02:53 PM

#11

TI-86

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 174

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

You bet the edge you have at that time. How do you stake handicapped bets when adjusting for the information the market provides moving with or against your picks?

Thank you sir.
I realize I am not attending to this properly. My job ties me up in the evening and prevents me. So inevitably, I get juicy prices in the morning, and then an hour before game they either move against me or for me, and consequently I am over-betting or under-betting my edge. Someday I'd like to quit my job or adopt an aggressive hedge strategy, but I know that won't happen anytime soon.

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07-08-2009 , 05:13 PM

#12

TheRover

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 6,715

Hedges never win.

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07-08-2009 , 05:20 PM

#13

Wisdom Cube

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 381

Learn to Ride Dirty

Hedges suck

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07-11-2009 , 12:13 AM

#14

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wisdom Cube

Learn to Ride Dirtay

Hedges never win

Yes.

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07-12-2009 , 11:46 PM

#15

the steam

banned

Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 1,521

Of course the lines move on air...what are the smaller books supposed to do let the followers take a free shot?

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