Football (soccer) betting thread - Page 157 - Sports Betting

Protip.

Sassuolo - Modena (Serie bwin), 2u on Sassuolo to win @ 1.85
Bari - Grosseto (Serie bwin), 1u on X @ 3.10
Swansea - Newcastle, 1u Over 2,5G @ 1.91

Later:
Novara - Genoa (Serie A), 1u on X @ 3.20
Milan - Fiorentina (Serie A), 2u on Over 2,5G @ 1.75
Liverpool - Aston Villa, 1u on X @ 4.10

Heh.

Clocked in Montreal Impact - FC Toronto 1 @ 2.20 (because I am a masochist) and Palermo - Juventus Over 2,5G @ 1.75 earlier, post is too little too late but let's see.

Quote

04-07-2012 , 01:15 PM

#3902

jp1444

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 850

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMUTTTT

it wasnt an analysis, it was a brief comment..difference:you tried, i certainly didnt. since u seem like someone dumb enough to need everything explained to u in detail, i could elaborate if i wanted to. you tried to name ur reasons for backing wigan @ whatever odds because they have won 2 straight and chelsea "are the same as under avb" hah

Quote

04-07-2012 , 01:45 PM

#3903

MTLvillager

banned

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 149

Nice 3 draw picks for today! I hit LIV U 3 @ 1.85 for a decent win! and Everton O 2 @ 1.65 for a small win I am starting to like these U 3 and O 2.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Comfortably Nub

Heh.

Clocked in Montreal Impact - FC Toronto 1 @ 2.20 (because I am a masochist) and Palermo - Juventus Over 2,5G @ 1.75 earlier, post is too little too late but let's see.

Quote

04-07-2012 , 03:00 PM

#3904

TheVig

adept

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 940

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheVig

Ytd 112-98-10 +40.91u
Bets on a 1-5u scale

Over 2.5 goals in Spurs and Sunderland 2.18u to win 2u L
Bolton to win 1u to win 1.63u L
Wigan +1.5 goals 1u to win 1.03u W
Everton to win 1u to win 1.5u L
Over 2.5 goals in Stoke and Wolves 2.22u to win 2u W

2-3 -1.15u

Ytd 114-101-10 +39.76u

Quote

04-07-2012 , 03:05 PM

#3905

TheVig

adept

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 940

Ytd 114-101-10 +39.76u
Bets on a 1-5u scale

Under 3.5 goals in Man United and QPR 1.35u to win 1u
Over 2.5 goals in Gunners and City 2.7u to win 2u

Quote

04-07-2012 , 06:14 PM

#3906

sayhey69

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 831

Quote:

Originally Posted by sayhey69

ytd: 27-24 +22.257u

Sunderland Win @3.36L
Bolton Win @2.72L

Liverpool, Villa U2' @2.07W
Everton, Norwich U2,2' @1.971L
Wolves, Stoke U2',3 @1.862L
Blackburn, WBA U2',3 @1.877L

Villa Draw @4.7 risking .6uW
Villa Win @8.73 risking .4uL

today: 2-5 -1.11u
ytd: 29-29 +21.147

my totals have been atrocious the last two weekends. hopefully city can pull through tomorrow and save me from a losing weekend... although i kinda do want my gooners in the cl next year

Quote

04-07-2012 , 08:05 PM

#3907

gunner134

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 459

3-1-1(+5.08u)yesterday
YTD:78-73-5(+41.06u)

Quote

04-08-2012 , 08:22 AM

#3908

yeaFMLdegen

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 555

said i was going to just lurk this thread but ive just seen that bookies are offering a decent price on PSG to beat marseille today. PSG are at home vs a marseille side who haven't won in 9 games (including both champions league/french league) with a terrible away record. (with barely anything to play for)

5/6 looks good

(in before i jinx myself)

Quote

04-08-2012 , 12:57 PM

#3909

sayhey69

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 831

Quote:

Originally Posted by sayhey69

City Win @3L

ytd: 29-29 +21.147

today: 0-1 -1u
ytd: +20.147

hand the title to united

Quote

04-08-2012 , 01:34 PM

#3910

DMMx69

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,680

hows relegation looking? is your monte carlo sim easy to re-run?

Quote

04-08-2012 , 01:43 PM

#3911

sayhey69

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 831

Quote:

Originally Posted by DMMx69

hows relegation looking? is your monte carlo sim easy to re-run?

it takes some time to run but i have nothing going on other than watching the masters so ill get it started.

Quote

04-08-2012 , 01:47 PM

#3912

DMMx69

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,680

appreciate it. shoulda put some money on blackburn few weeks back...

Quote

04-08-2012 , 02:39 PM

#3913

sayhey69

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 831

here we go.

team - p(relegation)
wolves - 0.9853
wigan - 0.5697
blackburn - 0.4434
qpr - 0.6313
bolton - 0.3573
villa - 0.013

what are betting odds at?

team - p(title)
united - .9673
city - .0327

p(arsenal finishes top 4) = .9107

Quote

04-08-2012 , 04:49 PM

#3914

sayhey69

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 831

Quote:

Originally Posted by sayhey69

today: 0-1 -1u
ytd: +20.147

Sunderland +.5 @1.962
Newcastle Win @1.595
Norwich Win @10.18
Fulham Win @3.62

Sunderland, Everton U2.5 @1.741
Norwich, Tottenham U3.5 @1.73
Stoke, Villa U2.5 @1.676
Fulham, Chelsea U2.5@1.971

Last edited by sayhey69; 04-08-2012 at 05:06 PM.

Quote

04-08-2012 , 05:07 PM

#3915

TheVig

adept

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 940

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheVig

Ytd 114-101-10 +39.76u
Bets on a 1-5u scale

Under 3.5 goals in Man United and QPR 1.35u to win 1u W
Over 2.5 goals in Gunners and City 2.7u to win 2u L

1-1 -1.7u

Ytd 115-102-10 +38.06u

Quote

04-08-2012 , 05:13 PM

#3916

DMMx69

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,680

Quote:

Originally Posted by sayhey69

here we go.

team - p(relegation)
wolves - 0.9853 -10000
wigan - 0.5697 -200 to -300
blackburn - 0.4434 +100 to +110
qpr - 0.6313 -150 to -175
bolton - 0.3573 +187 to +220
villa - 0.013 +1200 to +2000

what are betting odds at?

team - p(title)
united - .9673
city - .0327

p(arsenal finishes top 4) = .9107

Depends heavily on the shop, but here is a range for the middle two quartiles is in bold, above.

There may be a bit of value in Bolton and QPR, depending on the book.

Quote

04-08-2012 , 05:16 PM

#3917

TheVig

adept

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 940

Ytd 115-102-10 +38.06u
Bets on a 1-5u scale

Under 2.5 goals in Everton and Sunderland 1.3u to win 1u
Over 3 goals in Newcastle and Bolton 2u to win 2.3u
Draw in Villa and Stoke 1u to win 2.37u
Fulham +.5 goal 1.3u to win 1u

Rovers +.5 goal 1.19u to win 1u

Wigan +1.5 goals 1.3u to win 1u
Over 3 goals in Gunners and Wolves 4.12u to win 4u
Over 2.5 goals in QPR and Swans 2u to win 2.1u

Last edited by TheVig; 04-08-2012 at 05:24 PM. Reason: More plays

Quote

04-09-2012 , 07:38 AM

#3918

Saywut

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 227

Quote:

Originally Posted by sayhey69

Sunderland +.5 @1.962
Newcastle Win @1.595
Norwich Win @10.18
Fulham Win @3.62

Sunderland, Everton U2.5 @1.741
Norwich, Tottenham U3.5 @1.73
Stoke, Villa U2.5 @1.676
Fulham, Chelsea U2.5@1.971

Should we go big on newcastle? i dont see them not winning to be honest. What are your thoughts sayhey.

Quote

04-09-2012 , 08:04 AM

#3919

Comfortably Nub

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saywut

Should we go big on newcastle? i dont see them not winning to be honest. What are your thoughts sayhey.

I for one agree. My only action today is 3u riding on Newcastle, logged before the line was lowered today.

Quote

04-09-2012 , 08:27 AM

#3920

yeaFMLdegen

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 555

jumping on the newcastle bandwagon, don't see much else i wanna bet on today so would like a sweat.

sorry in advance for jinxing everyone

Quote

04-09-2012 , 10:25 AM

#3921

sayhey69

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 831

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saywut

Should we go big on newcastle? i dont see them not winning to be honest. What are your thoughts sayhey.

sorry i woke up "late" today. being on the west coast games start before the crack of dawn. definitely think there was value in newcastle. hopefully they can see it through. go go go norwich

gl

Quote

04-09-2012 , 03:10 PM

#3922

sayhey69

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 831

torres starting = love my fulham plays

does anyone know of any research of how weather affects the total? intuitively i would think it would benefit the under since its harder to string together passes. one could also argue defenders are going to lose their footing more and it could make it significantly harder for goalies. seems like itd be an easy thing to check statistically... if you could get the data

Last edited by sayhey69; 04-09-2012 at 03:16 PM.

Quote

04-09-2012 , 03:18 PM

#3923

jp1444

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 850

nice play on the Norwich game, fulham price is too good aswell

any1 like spurs for top 4 @1.67..

Quote

04-09-2012 , 03:34 PM

#3924

sayhey69

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 831

Quote:

Originally Posted by jp1444

nice play on the Norwich game, fulham price is too good aswell

any1 like spurs for top 4 @1.67..

whenever football-data.co.uk updates their results file ill run my monte carlo and put up top 4 probabilities. what are the odds for newcastle? spurs been in poor form but their remaining fixtures are somewhat easier than newcastle who have to play city and chelsea