Hey, I am trying to develop a pretty consistent system to predict over/unders for baseball. It will involve the following:

Batter vs. Pitcher

Ballpark dimensions

lineup

weather

time of day


I think these would be some good factors to start. Anything else I should keep in mind when betting an over or under?

bullpens

if you think home team is gonna win ur only getting 8.5 innings rather than nine

Lineup is a good one.

Umpires

http://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.asp

spilts, wOBA or OPS, pitcher OPS against league OPS, then adjust batter ops up or down by factor that pitcher is better or worse then league average. I would junk BvsP but that's me GL finding a meaningful sample in a meaningful time frame in most spots. A few people have published there work in this area as well. I would read the Haralabos article and try to take anything I did to the level he did with NBA.

Seriously your best bet is to try and find a local that updates their lines daily or so then just bet any time you can beat the no vig line on pinny with them. Making a good model on this **** is hard.

Most of the time i'm betting UNDER


I'm clearly analyzing how dangerous both lineup cards are and the potential for crooked numbers when i play U/O, the first four spots are always usually good hitters, I'm looking for weak 5-9 spots, I'm looking for averages of .250 dipping down to the .220's and i make sure they aren't 4 or 5 legit threats to HR , i'm checking the pitchers last 3 starts, if he is erratic then i pass, if he has been quality for a few weeks i'll roll with it, I don't think the bullpen is a major factor unless you know they CANT be trusted, because if your starters aren't going 6 or 7 innings your screwed anyways… GL

i never wanna play with lines like -6.5 or -7 unless
i have two really good pitchers going and even then
it is a trap, -8.5, -9, and the rare -10 are my best bets to fade

Right, baseball is pretty tough for the o/u. I was having great success during the hockey season betting the o/u. EVERY line has to be either 5.5 or 6. I found some exploits in this and took full advantage.

Harder to do in baseball since the lines vary much more. This is my first year betting baseball o/u so still trying to figure out a good system. Would rather have a good system in place by end of year than actually winning some dough.

I'll bet any line, depends on the situation. If I see two crappy pitchers and the batters have had good success I will try and bet the over. Also ballpark dimensions and lefties/righties should play a role.