The specified condition was if one doesn't have a strong opinion on game, meaning one doesn't think they have found the bigger edge against the theoretically less efficient line.

1. Yes, assuming you learn what it is... etc

2. All and every book, betonline is legit though.

almost none of this is true

How do you define what a "massive edge" is? Can you give an example of a massive edge you saw in a straight bet?

Youre sort of on the right path but not quite there yet. Heres some good advice to get yourself going...learn to respect the market. Just remember that youre a 10 dollar bettor and youre going up against guys betting 1000x that amount. If you see a bet with a "massive edge", think about it a little more. What are you seeing that someone betting 100k isnt seeing?

Also dont worry about kelly staking yet. It is the most optimal way to grow your BR but you need to be able to show your edge first. Keep very, very accurate records and set aside a couple hours every week (usually mondays) to go over everything and see where youre at.

I don’t know what I would consider a massive edge bet would be. I was very high on Titan +5.5. DVOA and ELO spreads were much lower. Titans were being undervalued due to boring play while Browns were being overvalued to hype. Titans ran a top 10 D last year. Browns only did well against week teams.

That I guess felt like a massive edge.

ok youre on the right track but not there yet. Saying a team is undervalued due to "boring play" is a fun narrative and something you might read at covers.com, but it isn't how you make money. How do you know the market didnt already incorporate that info into the line already? You need to be able to show exactly what the expected spread/outcome 'should' be.

So you took Ten +5.5. Heres a good exercise that helped me starting out...at what number would you take the other side? If there is no number then you have literally no chance at this. But once you start thinking this way youll be better off.

Also do not EVER use DVOA or fangraphs to make bets. Trust me I learned this the hard way. I dont know what it is but those guys are great to read and do awesome work and Ive used a ton of their stuff for props, but it just does not translate into winning straight big market bets (beating games with 50k+ limits is hard.)

btw youre all welcome for this free contribution

I did have a number in my head and it was -3 Browns and I would have taken the other side.

How can one tell what the market has incorporated into their lines?

I sense an adversarial tone. Thats fine, enjoy the season and good luck

Like is going to go ahead and excuse himself from this thread, after saying pretty much nothing of worth or original, because of your "adversarial tone." Golden, coming from the most adversarial poster on this forum. Get bent, douche - no one cares to stroke your ego today except this poor nub, go make an AMA on Reddit about it attentionwhore.

oh yes like you're just the greatest and smartest thanks for your contribution lul

like is a f'in jedi he "sensed" it -- lol!

"i sense someone who is not going to worship me but instead make me question my ideas. goodbye!"

Aw, I'm gonna miss SWAUTistic. Gotta give him props for finding a way to post on 2p2 from prison.

Idk, in Picking NFL Winners, Masaru Kanemoto gives a model that incorporates DVOA. I made several of my own tweaks to his model, started using it this season and am shocked at how accurate it seems so far given how simple it is (e.g. right now its main input is Madden player ratings lol). Most of my lines match the market's and when they don't, so far the market has tended to move toward mine. Small sample obv, plus the early weeks are the softest. When Kanemoto published his model a year ago, he said he expected the market to catch up to it in a couple years. (But if it hasn't already, I overestimated the market and I should have gotten into capping long ago.)

Just follow Joe Murray on Twitter. Guy is crushing.

Most "systems" look good for a little while. Check back in at the end of the season and if youre still up you MIGHT have something.

DVOA is a good starting place and I used to use their stuff all the time for props. But Ive found that for whatever reason, PURE analytic type stuff that has no bearing at all to betting usually doesnt translate into winning bets. I just think the end goals are different. Otherwise, DVOA and other similar stuff wouldn't be public

Sports betting is all about statistics and probabilities.

Its not enough to say you think a team will win most of the time as they are the better team. You have to find a way to assign a percentage to this by analyzing the game in as much detail as you are able to and then see if the odds offered by the bookmakers are good enough to bet.

You may find that the best bet (highest value) is the one that you expect to win about 9% of the time so its not about picking winners all the time - it is about consistently betting the 'value bet' for the right amount of money relative to your bankroll and tolerance for risk.

I recommend you either paper bet without risking real money for the next 12 months and see how you get on but if you must risk money then limit your stakes to $5.

Thanks! I’ve been betting each week so far of the NFL season. I’ve been laying about 10-15 bets each week in $10 units. I’m up 4 units as of now. Idk if most bettors have more bets or what but it feels like bankroll growth will be mighty slow at this ROI.

I’ve also done poor at game spreads but have made up for it in player props.

People have unrealistic expectations about bankroll growth.

If you bet lets say 2% stakes (what pros bet more or less) and have a return of 5% which is very solid and you manage to find 10 of these profitable bets each week which is very far from easy then your bankroll will grow 1% per week.

That is the reality of the situation.

Thats not enough for most people and they bet more than they should in the hopes of winning a large amount of money quickly... and they bust their bankroll almost all of the time.

Its a tough way to make money and anyone who does it professionally will tell you its a hard grind if you do it the right way with a long term plan.

Look at it this way:

1% growth a week, 45 betting weeks per year, $1,000 starting bankroll:

Annual Growth Rate: 41.67%

After 5 Years: $5,706
After 10 years: $32,567
After 20 years you hit the million dollars.

That is a plan even if it is not as exciting as you hoped and it assumes you are in the roughly 4% of bettors who are actually profitable.


To put it another way... if you wanted to make $50,000 a year with the above figures and betting level stakes you would need to stake $2,222 on each bet - to justify this you would require a bankroll of around $100,000 at the absolute minimum to withstand the losing streaks. If you are betting selections that you expect to win about 9% of the time because its the value bet and the right move then you would need a much bigger bankroll as you can't be staking as high as 2% when you could easily lose 20 of these bets in a row.

Anyway, first wait until you have placed a few hundred bets and see if you are profitable before dreaming of making it big

Well youre doing a couple things right...props and 10 dollar units. Youre a little lost on some of the broader concepts though

BTBFP

I don't even know where to start...

Basically everything is very wrong or dumb, I guess you are right on it being grind.

Sports betting is very easy to win at, literally 3 steps

1. Quantify edge
2. Calculate Kelly*
3. Bet said edge

That's ****ing it

Missed the first post, which was solid. Minus the paper betting. Just back test and print or yolo and maybe print/learn a lesson.

Kelly ****ing Criterion ffsssssssssssssssssssssssssss, at the beginning its about maximizing biggest edges/turning over bankroll.

Any reading material for this?

You don't really need to place any bets to test out your model/theory..

Obviously we know that kelly is the optimal way to bet. But part of betting kelly means ACCURATELY quantifying your edge. Prove that you can do that long term (like at least a year) then worry about 'optimal' staking.

Also youre missing the biggest point in this exchange...this guy is a noob talking about having an edge in NFL straight markets, betting 10 dollars a unit. He is light years away from even understanding how to make money long term in sports betting, never mind actually doing it. He needs to learn like literally 10 more things before even worrying about optimal staking strategy.