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12-16-2020 , 12:39 PM
Your clv on the eurocup totals is massive. We will be eating the imaginary food from the movie Hook for months after today.

Weird thing about bovada, they give me $3k sides on euroleague and champions league but only $100 max sides and $50 totals on eurocup.
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12-16-2020 , 12:46 PM
Ill have to get in on the eurocup totals.
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12-16-2020 , 01:42 PM
usually they don't move that much, but close to close they all moved 3-4 points. looking great as Kuban is on pace to lose outright even tho I got 7 points of CLV

couple fade the steam bet

Eurocup:
Ulm/Malaga u163.5

Euroleague:
Khimky +11.5
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12-16-2020 , 01:59 PM
Poogs detailed his SOGs methodology in his blog post and I agree with his general approach. After spending a lot of time tinkering last season it's very similar to what I ended up with. There's always room for disagreement on things like sample size, regression to the mean, and weighting. He seemed to have a lot of success with it, though, so hopefully, he comes around to give us some plays in 2021. If not you'll always have ol' TomG to kick around. I'll definitely look into opening Faceoffs as well since it will be a lot easier using actual skater FOs rather than trying to project who will show up. I'm not as tech-savvy as you others here. I'll see if I can figure out the API otherwise I'll just wait on my computer hitting F5 on NHL.com waiting for a guys name to turn bold. No interest in joining the Telegram group. I can't enjoy winning if I'm just copying others plays.
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12-16-2020 , 02:15 PM
TomG want to get a cabin in the woods for a week and having a working session? I'll bring the data, a laptop, and a copy of Ed Millers book.

No internet and we don't leave until we have solved it.
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12-16-2020 , 02:25 PM
Pretty unreal to lose that kuban bet. Did you ever figure out why the line moved like that? I saw a reference to maybe some monaco players not traveling to play kuban, but im not sure i couldn't find confirmation of that
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12-16-2020 , 02:25 PM
its eurocup baby is the only explanation

that over almost didn't hit in the promitheas game too even tho it was at 145 or so after 3q
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12-16-2020 , 03:34 PM
is Treviso tanking this game

0 points in 4 minutes to start the 4th. 13 point lead down to 5
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12-16-2020 , 03:54 PM


does barcelona give out tacos if they score over 85 points? add in scoring 57 in the 1st and then not hitting the over you get an amazing game
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12-16-2020 , 03:55 PM
unbelievable W for the squad after a disaster 1Q in the Barcelona game
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12-16-2020 , 04:02 PM
Seems like the majority of your picks have a huge momentum swings very second minute :P

Or maybe every game is like that. Had Bayern big today, and Zvezda straight up yesterday, fun stuff, esp dat disallowed last second 3.
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12-16-2020 , 04:07 PM
Nice to see Sassari taking a Lamar-inspired poop during Q2
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12-16-2020 , 04:10 PM


We did it guys. After 27 hours of grueling work (including the script stopping when my computer rebooted while i was sleeping) here's all the data

The one we've all been waiting for

faceoff.csv

320,361 unique faceoffs over 5591 games since 2016 coded by game, season type, home/away, and ice location. Diced may have pre-season too since this includes preseason and its only 320k.

Next we got

goalieStats.csv

This includes all the goalie stats in the API. A decision of "P" means the goalie was pulled before the end of the game.

linescore.csv


includes all the goals per period, shots on goal, etc.

player.csv


every player who has logged a game since 2016, where they tend to play, and which hand they use. If current team is blank that means they're out of the NHL.

playerStats.csv


same thing as goalie stats but for non goalies

schedule.csv


As you see above I ran a schedule-fix. The time in the API is in GMT which I didn't notice at first so I needed to correct it after everything was done to match my lines database. I meant to convert it to Eastern but math is hard so it's actually in central. This scheduleID is important to link across all the files.

and finally

teamStats.csv

just a sum of all the player stats but grouped together for the team.

Look forward to working together.
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12-16-2020 , 04:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hornacek
Nice to see Sassari taking a Lamar-inspired poop during Q2
its pretty amazing how in the NBA you might see one team a year score under 10 points in a quarter but its a daily occurrence in europe
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12-16-2020 , 04:41 PM
^^ Sigs that is amazing.
Now I am just an amateur but looking forward to betting NHL very much.
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12-16-2020 , 05:06 PM
Fading the steam cost us 2.2u. Womp womp.

Euroleague:
Khimki/Barcelona o164.5 LOSS -1.1
Khimky +11.5 LOSS -1.1
Lyon +4 WIN +1
Valencia +3.5 WIN +1

Eurocup:
Cedevita/Promitheas o161.5 WIN +1
MoraBanc Andorra/Lietabelis u155.5 WIN +1
Mornar Bar/Buducnost o158 WIN +1
Ulm/Malaga u163.5 LOSS -1.1

Champions:
Bakken Bears/Sassari o176 LOSS -1 [13 point favorite losing by 20+]

Italy:
Treviso -4 WIN +1

Today: 6-4 +1.6u
YTD: 42-34-2 +4.6u
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12-16-2020 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog
12/16 Euroleague

Lyon +4 -115 (fair +1) WIN
Barca -11 (fair -16) WIN

YTD 7-6 +0.7
2-0 +2
YTD 9-6 +2.7

12/17 Euroleague
Milano +3.5 (fair +1)
Zalgiris -4 (fair -8)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley


does barcelona give out tacos if they score over 85 points?
i think barcelona just likes me a little bit more
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12-16-2020 , 09:49 PM
basketball swings (we on quimsa -2.5)

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12-17-2020 , 12:37 AM
Well, you obv can't have them scoring in the double digits again after that 3rd.
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12-17-2020 , 12:53 AM
valiant effort in the 4th scoring 8
to obras 26
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12-17-2020 , 07:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG
20/20 Sports Betting: Think Like a Pro

What do we think about adding this to the curriculum? The author apparently has been around a long time, and focusses mainly on low limits props. Let's give it as an assignment for our undergraduate interns to see if they can find some use for it.
I bought and read the book.
It says to watch for and adapt to changes of sports rules.

DEL Hockey 2020-2021 season is starting today and there is a new 'glove rule' because of Covid: when a player takes of gloves for a provocation or to fight, he automatically gets an additional time penalty.
After three penalties in a season the player gets an automatic ban .
https://www.penny-del.org/news/start...ders-ist/11983

For the upcoming NHL season a shortened season, realignment of divisions, division games only are to be expected.
https://www.nhl.com/news/bettman-202...on/c-319817284

Will watch any upcoming rule changes.
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12-17-2020 , 09:32 AM
Euroleague:

Ulker +4
Berlin +5.5
Berlin/Pana u162

VTB:
Parma Perm -6.5

Spain:
Badalona -3

No Eurocup today sadly.
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12-17-2020 , 09:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dawai
I bought and read the book.
It says to watch for and adapt to changes of sports rules.

DEL Hockey 2020-2021 season is starting today and there is a new 'glove rule' because of Covid: when a player takes of gloves for a provocation or to fight, he automatically gets an additional time penalty.
After three penalties in a season the player gets an automatic ban .
https://www.penny-del.org/news/start...ders-ist/11983

For the upcoming NHL season a shortened season, realignment of divisions, division games only are to be expected.
https://www.nhl.com/news/bettman-202...on/c-319817284

Will watch any upcoming rule changes.
This is good information. We'll have to track penalty minutes and see how they change in DEL hockey. I've listened to the author on a podcast and he seemed pretty sharp. Any other insights from the book? Would you recommend reading it? I think the prop betting info would be most useful to the syndicate.
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12-17-2020 , 09:55 AM
Its causing conflicts in the market. Bookmaker is hanging u5.5 in the Dusseldorfer/Haie DEL game at -130 while pinnacle is at +103!
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12-17-2020 , 12:05 PM
Keenan Allen is questionable (likely to play)
Mike Williams is questionable (unlikely to play)

Austin Ekeler O/U for receiving is 5.5 catches and 44.5 yards

Ekeler has at least 9 targets every game since coming back. Raiders have given up the 10th-most catches to RBs this season despite not playing Ekeler yet and missing James White.

This feels like an early Christmas present.. Raiders have been better as of late limiting catches to RBs at least quantity-wise, but they faced the Colts (JT was rolling so Hines didn't play as much; still 7 total RB catches), Jets (Gore got hurt second snap, NYJ led most of that game), and Falcons (Gurley was out, Ito had 4 catches, but neither Ito or Hill are anywhere near Gurley as a pass-catcher).
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