Can't help myself but to take New England +205 tonight vs the Rams. Will probably pile on a little more if it keeps creeping upward before kickoff.

You mean +5.5?

Or Bayern Munich -5..5?

TIA

whoops munich -5.5 sorry about that.
up to -6.5 IMO

Cool, thanks.

maybe we should have went Lyon +5.5, down to -4.5

Rhea played and UTRGV covered despite an average game from him.

Iona up to -4.5 Super public bet right now. Seeing 70+% on the Gaels. Might try to middle by game-time if this keeps up.

these euro totals are killing us. closes 161 compared to 158 and they're gonna score like 120

These both won but not including in record

3-0 +3
YTD 5-4 +0.85

Sig, or anyone else in the know, my model is relatively basic so I've been sticking to euroleague because I figure lines are relatively soft compared to nba and cbb while gameplay is similar to nba, but is there any reason I can't just apply it to cbb with the same weights? Are cbb lines that much sharper than euroleague?

I would assume CBB lines are at least marginally sharper, but I might be underestimating Euroleague popularity. That said, can you just backtest it en masse? That's where I would start.

Zalgiris/Panathinaikos o158.5 LOSS -1.1
Munich -5.5 [closed -4.5] WIN +1
Barcelona -6.5 (I have fair as -9 or so, probably missing something) [got to -8.5 before closing at 8 so maybe we weren't missing anything] WIN +1

Yesterday: 2-1 +0.9u
YTD: 30-26-1 +1.4u

LEts get this Dominican RSIF boys

Toros del Este vrs Gigantes Del Cibao Score in the First Inning - Yes -105 - ( ACTION ) (Fair: -111)
Tigres del Licey vrs Estrellas Orientales Score in the First Inning - No -150 - ( ACTION )
(Fair: -157)

Texas A&M +1
Mississippi State +3.5 / ML +140
Iona -6 (now -7)


Just rolling 0.5U today. Ibi Watson v Molinar is an amazing matchup. Both of these teams haven't exactly lived up to expectations this year, but Flyers seem a little more underwhelming. Bulldogs at least have one nice home win against North Texas.

Sigs do you no longer do NFL props?

Bet NFL spreads, totals, and props every week. BMs been posting them so late every week barely have enough time to get bets in

I'm doing my model by hand and I have no ability to backtest (which is a good reason no one should be following my picks unless sig's model also agrees).

Speaking of NFL player props, Brandon Allen should be projected for ~160 yards, imo, and his passing yards prop is u205.5 -130 on bovada. Looks way off to me.

if he plays I have Allen for about 202 yards. They might start Finlay

Dallas is bad against WR's and Tee/Tyler Boyd are good WRs. Could also see Giovanni Bernard having a good game against Dallas D + RB dump offs

Guess my Allen projection is way off lol..

Dallas is incredibly good against running backs receiving though, like ridiculously elite. Only 2.89 yards per target allowed to RBs by Dallas. Next lowest number the last two seasons is 3.54 yds/tgt by 2020 Saints. Plus Gio's usage has been inconsistent last few games.

Cowboys will be without cornerbacks Trevon Diggs, Chidobe Awuzie, and Anthony Brown. Expected to start at CB: Rashard Robinson and Saivion Smith with Jourdan Lewis remaining at nickel.

So nvm to what I said.

pff has an nfl player props tool so I bought a month to see what their projections are like. They have Brandon Allen at 205, pretty close to your model sig. Maybe pff built a model that beats prop lines? I would believe that more than the pff model beating nfl sides and totals.

Sig would you be kind enough to share your prop totals for a few players to cross check against what pff has? It'll be a small sample but if pff is close to what you have on all of them I might throw a few bucks on the top value plays and post them here. pff projects:

D. Johnson rushing yards 37.2
C. Sims receiving yards 25.6
L. Fournette rushing yards 27.3
A. Smith pass yards 237.4
C. Hyde rush yards 26.5
R. Wilson completions 22.9
D. Watson pass yards 267.8

duke 49.08
sims 23.1
fournette 29.74
a smith 210.68
hyde 36.9
wilson 24.08
watson 251.26

i dunno if my approach is best but i use quant model to get initial lines and then use qual data to adjust/modify variance/etc. based on projected game plans

then just run sims and bet the ones with low variance and have value (value defined as if total is 35.5 over % is just # of simulations above 35.5 divided by total samples)

each game takes like 2-3 hours to do. easier to just use a dfs site or pff but that's not fun

Damn nice response thanks. So these aren't as close as I would have liked and undoubtedly your approach is going to be better than pff's.

I wonder if the pff model is even able to beat prop lines.

I find it hard to believe that any of these models behind a light paywall - PFF, 4for4, etc - will beat the vig without also aggressively line shopping, which is probably the part here that does the heavy lifting anyway.

Yeah youre likely right. What sig just described is probably many levels above what pff are producing, plus it is basically public info.

I’m really digging the over lines for Collin Johnson on the Jaguars this week. 2.5 receptions and 24.5 yards.

Sig, when you describe value, you get a cover probability which is the # of times over/under happens divided by games as you said and value is equal to cover probability minus sportsbook odds, is that what you mean by value?

Do you ever get prop total values above 15%? 10%?