What do you guys think. Tyson -250?

I'm under the impression that the fight is just an exhibition, and there isn't even a set number of rounds and there are no judges. Maybe that's changed, but if it's still the case, sounds lame as ****, and it really strips value from RJ. I'd like to bet on RJ if it's a legit fight, since I think Tyson will gas out early and RJ will beat him on the cards. But I think there may not even be cards.

So I guess BookMaker practices adverse selection during live bets also, I bet Clemson -113 when they were getting roasted in H1, bet was accepted, was in my Open Bets, but now it doesn't show up in my history at all, and they didn't pay me.

wow anyone watch that santa cruz/davis fight?

santa cruz was so confident, laughing it up, dominating the fight and then one punch and he's knocked out cold

life comes at you fast boys

No, as no one likes boxing anymore according to the MMA thread.

So let's say you're trying to find the parameters that maximize the likelihood of your model. But you want to weigh recent outcomes more heavily. What kind of things can you do? One thing I thought of was multiplying each term in the likelihood sum by a decay factor. The more time that has passed, the more you decay. Then you just tune your decay "half life" hyperparameter. Any other approaches?

I have the same problem. Interested in what others have to say.

Maybe don't adjust it at all, but when you have a thin bet or no bet decision, you use how they are trending to decide

i think either a weighted regression using weights equal to some decay function like your mentioned or an autoregressive model. don't ask me any questions about either one as i've long forgotten the details.

marcel projection system uses the most basic kind of weighting i think a 5, 3, 1 for stats from the last three seasons. you'd want to fit actual values. it's really rudimentary but that's the point of a monkey system and it gets the general idea right.

Exponential weighting works well because the old stuff is still there, but just fades away over time. Kind of like real life. I basically assume any time series data follows that model, and adjust accordingly.

It also works well when your model needs scalar projections, and your unit is either a mean or median value. For distributions not so much.

what do you boxing bros think about Gamboa +1800? over Haney

has to be a lock

gamboa looking horrible

thought the 17 year age different would be an advantage. guess not

If you're betting coin flips for a risk-free promotion, then you're doing it wrong

Agreed. I used the happy hour prices to make my risk-free bet on a 3-team ML parlay that actually turned out to be slightly +EV compared to Pinnacle lines. Didn't hit though.

what do you boxing ring masters think of these

Springer +775 over Hart
Springer/Hart u6.5 +115
Cullen/Docherty o7.5 +145
Katharina Thanderz +550 over Harper
Brook/Crawford o9.5 +100

boxing is the worst

i have maloney +170 who busted up francos eye in the first round

now they're replaying it 900 times to see if it was a thumb or heat butt to no contest it

lol there was no head butt and even if there was it was on the other side of the head

guy took 13 jabs directly to one eye and nevada ruled it no contest

classic scam

I actually became more of a boxing "snob" since becoming an MMA fan. I put snob is quotes because I can't think of a more precise word at the moment.

I only want to watch very high profile boxing matches now. When I was a teenager, my cousins, friends, etc. and I would watch random match-ups with unknown welterweights, etc. None of that, any more. I can't be bothered with anything less than huge superfights every couple years.

That was unbelievable, I was watching and laughing as they looked for a headbutt for 30 minutes, never found one [on that side] and gave that ruling.

Nice finish in the main event.

Wentz o 21.5 -109 BM

Wentz o 1.5 TDs -143

i love the eagles this week too. think wentz is gonna ball with the OL back and all those amazing receivers dropping every pass. add in wentz why would you ever do that moment and it's a recipe for success.

currently 0-6 this year betting either on or against the eagles. lets keep it up

losing 14-3
sanders averaging 5.3 yards per run so they pass every down
top receiver richard rodgers

classic eagles

Maybe we can trade Doug for Frank Reich if we throw in a couple draft picks?

After two bad weeks in 5-6, TomG Total Bases has rebounded with a couple of 4-1 weeks (this one was especially good since most people went 2-3) to get back to 59th.

It's going to be a long haul. We currently have 30 points and the guy in first has 38. Second has 33.5. I've noticed "public" numbers actually are pretty aligned with the pick breakdown in the contest. Going forward I'm going to try to pick sides that have low public % but aren't horrible (e.g., taking -7 in the contest when the line is currently -4). Hopefully that will get us some separation.

We are getting crushed in Circa contest. 1531st after 2 1-4 weeks in a row and I forgot to submit picks one week. I think we are going full contrarian there to try and win the 4th quarter prize. Poor showing for the Crowdsource Syndicate. I'm sorry.

Nothing like Sanders dropping 2 dump-offs, uncovered, at the end of the game to lose a prop bet. Guess his hands needed another week of rest.

PHL ran all over the Giants so kept throwing the ball...sigh.