oscar updates

some books had holywood +1100 and joker +2400 best picture this morning so added more onto that

missing link is down to +700 from +2500 we got!

honeyland down to +380 from +800
1917 down to +260 for best score from +450

rest are mostly slightly better, couple slightly worse.

lets hope we get those big ones!

goalies would never ever get pulled if their team is up. Only time youd replace a goalie is if they get hurt, if your team is getting smoked (whether its the goalies fault or not) or if they let up 2 or more really soft goals. Its not something anyone wants except for maybe the backup and even they dont love it. No one wants to go into a game cold. Replacing a goalie mid game is so rare and random though that I doubt you could model for it unless maybe its expected to be a complete blow out.

Pulling a goalie for an extra skater though is different. Theres a big discrepancy between coaches and how they handle it. If youre down 2 or 3 some coaches will do it as early as mid way through the 3rd nowadays which NEVER used to happen. Most will wait until about 1:30 is left if down by one goal.

If i were modeling it I would just look for the outliers, the coaches that are pull crazy and the ones who are afraid to do it. I dont think it would have much of an effect but I could be wrong

Easy TD from Guardians. Anyone else want to Uber pool over to Caesars and ask if they'll cash our TB u7.5 wins ticket early since its 100% to win?

How could they be expected to win with Puke Green uniforms?

I think too many people fell into the Marc Treisman is the top minor league football coach for all his work in the CFL

Their QB was drafted #2 in the AAF and couldn't even win the starting job. This game he's going against the top CB in the league (Summers). They don't really have any WR's outside of Reece Horn. Daniel Williams did good in AAF but he was on a good team I think.

The best player on the team is their tight end Truesdell, but hard to score if their QB can't get it to him.

Looking like an easy cash on the Guardians +5. LOL at the market driving it back to Tampa Bay -5 after moving to Guardians +2.5. When will they respect our raises?

Added Play

CHI Corey Crawford o28.5 -118

Early Nascar is looking good. Hamlin's car has insane speed. If he avoids a crash he should win

oh whoops all our guys crashed

at least we will have XFL

Harvick causing accidents on restarts too. Classic. We might nail the Hamlin +900

deep in the lab right now. gonna roll out something new for everyone

by the way since i have hockey the brain right now, Tom regarding saves; are you factoring in scoring effects? IE if a team is up or down big in the 3rd?

lol now hamlin crashes when he's in first because his tire explodes

i can't believe i wasted the last month of my life on this

this is amazing. another wreck. it's only a 75 lap race and they've crashed 4 times in the last 2 laps.

hope people got the guardians 2H +3.5 too. lets get this DC to close a 7-1 week on XFL

Harvick -115 over Kurt Busch LOSS -1.15
Harvick -110 over Truex Jr WIN +1
Denny Hamlin -115 over Kyle Busch WIN +1
Logano -115 over Keselowski WIN + 1
Austin Dillon +105 over Aric Almirola WIN +1.05
Harvick -105 over Chase Elliott LOSS -1.05

4-2 +1.85u on 6.6u risked (28% ROI)

Bowman +2200 LOSS -1
Kurt Busch +1600 LOSS -1
Joey Logano +900 LOSS -1
Hamlin +900 LOSS -1

0-4 -4u on 4u risked

Hal Mummy with the trademark towel around his neck. Why? I'ts not summer time, he has a jacket on. What is the point? lol

No, I'm not factoring in scoring effects for saves. I just take my SOGs projections and sum it up for the opposing team, then subtract out expected goals. For SOGs, I've messed around with score-adjusted stats but ultimately couldn't find a good way to make it work. The deflated stats need to be re-inflated for the particular matchup or things get messed up and in practice I found score-adjusted stats over-boost bad players and unfairly penalize good players. It's definitely an area that could be improved upon, but I don't think it's as simple as just switching to using score-adjusted stats.

For those who want to play around with it, corsicahockey.com and other sites as well offer a checkbox for adjusted stats which is the type of score adjusting I'm talking about.

I should say I project huge edges on most of these Saves so likely something is off for me. Most of the ones I bet are off by ~2 SOGs which is a huge difference using Poisson. I'm assuming Poisson should be fine for these?

looks like Dallas is gonna lose bringing us to 6-2. We bet before Landry Jones was out, but surprisingly the line kept moving towards Dallas. Still feel great about the process.

Saves Daily: 3-0-1, +3.00u
Saves YTD: 11-6-3, +4.02u, 23.32u risked, +17.2% ROI

looking like we down 2-3 units, gonna need a miracle with best picture otherwise our oscar system is the worst ever

Mahomes vs Joker prop ends in a push.

The XFL futures markets seem to be ripe for the picking. The Roughnecks opened at +900 which seemed crazy given that their season win total market was o/u 6 with the XFL sharps (sigs) betting the over. What do we think of the Roughnecks now at +500? Also Dallas opened as a top2 team and is now +700. Is this not an overreaction given that their stud QB did not play but should be available to play next game??

Not sure I would use the words "Landry Jones" and "stud QB" in the same sentence

I know what you mean. Im working on a whole new SOG model with all kinds of fun details that I never included before but I keep thinking that not including scoring effects is bad. But I cant figure out how to model for it. Right now I just use it as a tiebreaker for close plays.

I loved my model for player vs player but now I have access to player goals assists and point and im not sure about it now. Im getting way too many overs.

I'm a little reluctant to use BetBuilder because what if these do well then BetBuilder might just take them away? But Pinnacle is both slow to post and doesn't post as many guys so we'll just lay the -114 at BB. Is there another shop that consistently posts this prop? The listed goalie must start for action but I actually don't even care who is in the net. The bet is basically just a Team Total bet on opposing teams SOGs.

SJS Aaron Dell u28.5 -114
CGY David Rittich u27.5 -114
NSH Pekka Rinne u27.5 -114