don't need sleep bc we stay woke

Pinnacle isn't putting up early game saves so we have to go to BetBuilder for lines

OTT Craig Anderson u29.5 -114
WPG Laurent Brossoit o27.5 -114

lets add on DC -10 +100 just for the sweat to say we had action on the first XFL game

can't stop cardale

Showing the point spread and total on the score graphic is different. I guess they are using Caesar's.

Looking like xps are impossible

people are realizing that and now pounding the under in the houston game

luckily we were one step ahead of them

we gotta take DC -5.5 2H right? all the steam coming in on seattle but lets get it

and a 1Q Bucks -2.5 -111

Still no Saves up on Pinnacle

TOR Michael Hutchinson o28.5 -114
NSH Pekka Rinne u27.5 -114
CBJ Elivs Merzlikins o28.5 -114
WAS Braden Holtby u28.0 -130
PHI Brian Elliott u27.5 -114
DAL Anton Khudobin u28.5 -114
CGY David Rittich u28.5 -114

XFL 2-0?? How do we do it?

oh yea we losing this 2nd game under

got the 1Q praise

here are some more

Pelicans +1 +102
Pistons/Knicks o55 +102
Raptors/Nets o53.5 -107

Pinnacle finally up. A few added plays

NJD Mackenzie Blackwood o28.5 -129
TBL Andrei Vasilevskiy o25.5 -113
VAN Jacob Markstrom o27.5 -124

whoops zion is out, so pelicans is probably bad

but take mavericks -0.5 -110 to cancel it out

only 2-1 on XFL second game. How can we market ourselves as the premiere XFL touts when we make stupid decisions like betting the under. At least the team total under got there. People don't spend tens of thousands of dollars on packages from people who go 4-1.

but we did go 4-1 on quarters also so thats nice

lets let it ride on

nuggets -1 +103
nugs/suns u56 -105
spurs -0.5 -102

0-3 on next batch

0.0
End of the 1st Quarter
23 - 24
0.1

Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper
23 - 24

how do we do it??

x% of the time the goalie who started the game is pulled and his backup takes over. What do you think about multiplying projected saves by (1-x%)? Is there a better way to estimate x than using a league average?

What reasons does a goalie get pulled?

Only ones I can think of:
1)He is playing bad/team is getting blown out
2)He gets injured

For example

Team A projected to score 3.5
Team B projected to score 2.5

I would assume Team Bs goalie is more likely to get pulled.

Not sure if teams also pull their goalies if they are up a lot, though

New to this thread but really enjoying it.

Def are you Ace?


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jKM8N0SHrcY

Did some research and it seems like winning goalies usually stay in during blowouts, so...

How about you toy around with something like %chance of giving up 6+ goals.

Maybe
X for teamA = (League averageX + TeamB 6+ goals)/2

So teamA 6+ goals 12%
TeamB 6+ goals 4%

League average 6+ goals 8% (I used this https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...mp=&offset=300

League averageX 7% ( I pulled this number out of my ass)

X teamA = (7+4)/2 =5.5%
X teamB = (7+12)/2 = 9.5%

Pulling a goalie is usually because the goalie wants to get pulled and not really due to a strategic decision

They are in general a moody and superstitious bunch, was watching the game today and figured holtby won't want to get pulled with the rookie breathing down his neck and earn me some more save equity... He then started in and kept letting in more goals... Thing is I pivoted from Blackwood to Holtby last minute to Dave $5 to upgrade elsewhere, that was a -40 point swing and missed the call line by 1-3 points in most contests

Patrick Roy was of the "if I'm not feeling it take me out" his coach left him in longer than he appreciated and told the gm he was done playing for the Habs before the game finished

https://thehockeynews.com/news/artic...te-in-montreal

Haven't checked the math, but I would imagine you could heavily weigh chance of getting pulled by coach and goalie personality metrics - I'd be shocked if some coaches/goalies don't pull significantly more frequently than others

Saves Daily: 6-4-2, +1.35u
Saves YTD: 8-6-2, +1.02u, 18.72u risked, +5.4% ROI

I've slept 17 hours in the last 8 days, but it was for good reason. Thanks to TomG we are ready to debut the Crowdsource Syndicate Nascar package. Over 200 hours in the last month went into this. Guaranteed 900% return. And the h2h's have $250 limit, so it's definitely +EV to do long term health damage to yourself by not sleeping and staring at a screen all day.

Lets get this money everybody

Denny Hamlin -115 over Kyle Busch
Logano -115 over Keselowski
Austin Dillon +105 over Aric Almirola
Harvick -105 over Chase Elliott

To Win:
Bowman +2200
Kurt Busch +1600
Joey Logano +900
Hamlin +900

Couple more:

Harvick -115 over Kurt Busch
Harvick -110 over Truex Jr

Are those for Daytona or the drivers championship?

Busch Clash today. Harvick dominates at these type of races but he also crashes a lot. So 50/50that happens.

Early saves

BOS Jaroslav Halak u24.5 -114
NYR Igor Shesterkin o30.5 -114
MIN Devan Dubnyk o28.5 -114