I wonder if the three is as important in the XFL with all the rules. Probably not. NY has probably the best receiver int he league in Mekale McKay. He did really good in the AAF and I'm surprised he didn't get on a NFL team last year.


FWIW here are the major rule differences:

No extra points. They can run a play from the 2 for one point, 5 for 2, and 10 for 3.

Double forward pass behind the line of scrimmage. This could really benefit Seattle. They got Keenan Reynolds who was the QB for Navy and now he's a WR. I bet they scheme the double forward pass around him. He dominated at Navy with something like 5k rushing yards, 90 rushing TD's, and 4k passing yards. But a part of that success is probably due to their option scheme.

Shorter play clock, easier for something to be ruled a catch => higher scoring?

Incomplete pass doesn't stop the clock outside of 2 minutes.

Just clicking around on here it looks like you can bet upwards of $1000 on stuff? That can't be right?

I see they basically make you make parlays at bad odds, but that can probably be overcome by super bad/stale lines in some cases?

Big Games Only (though there aren't really any today but where should one find their Jones to get over the Williams TD hangover)

* UNC/FSU u145'
* Kansas -14

2-2

yea I think they're forced to do parlays for some legal reason. I wouldn't do any major sports since the odds are copied from markets, but their golf ones are so bad it's worth it.

Majority of SB non game props graded. Units hard to measure from all the different limits but I ended up

+$11719.30 on $22412.15 bet, so that is nice

big losses, joe buck mention jack buck no, mostert mentioned to be undrafted no, and westbrook reb+pts+ast > mahomes attempts

rest of losses were things i arbed for ~$100 profit each (reid 15 years comment, brady shown, anthem length)

excluding the arb'd ones went

31-3-1 not bad

if i didn't arb, 2 would have won and one lost (anthem)

tie was the mayweather bet as he didn't post anything to instagram

Hope this book doesn't go bankrupt and is still here next year

wont XFL play more like CFL?

Woah, I've only heard that monkey knife fight is a suckers bet, very surprising to hear some of there lines are so stale that they could be +ev

So a 2 leg prop parlay pays 2:1 ? Just need to hit at 58% to beat them, lol.

I think it's worse than that because you don't get the principal back. Haven't used the site so could be wrong about that.

the XFL futures market has moved to NY being the favorite to win the championship

Guess too many people fell for Caesara opening TB o/u at 7.5.

How do we do it????????????????

Yeah, I realized yesterday it was the Mahomes kneels that lost me $26k not the Williams TD since he was my Cpt in that lineup also. That last 7-yd kneel pushed me out of 1st.

At least FD is offering $200 in free casino play, gonna play some $100 hands of bj to get over it and stick the profits in $TSLA.

I placed a bunch of XFL season long win totals yesterday. Most were -115 except for the LA one which was +100

Tampa Bay u7.5 wins
Houston o6 wins
LA o4 wins
NY o 4 wins
ST Louis u3.5 wins

Lets cash these in 10 weeks everybody

where'd you bet these?

Caesars sportsbook. Whopping $500 limits.

Total ROI for NFL props. This is skewed slightly because of the much higher limits on the superbowl. With that it's 18.55%, if I re-scale the Super bowl results to be more like the limits for the rest of the season it's 12.97%. This also doesn't include the non game bets that we dominated.

Receptions: +5.96%
Interceptions: -5.05%
Pass attempts: 36.77%
Pass TDs: 16.21%
Pass complete: 10.15%
Passing yards: 8.59%
Receiving yards: -22.64%
Rushing yards: 9.88%
Sacks: 28.88%

Majority of the volume was on receptions (almost 35%). Pass attempts was the highest ROI, but only 11% of the volume. All the yards bets totaled for only 13%. Sacks only 4%.

1st Team TD 2% of volume and -94% if you exclude kyle's super bowl TD, + a lot if you don't.

See you can get money down on props if you just a) go to war with bookmaker who won't ban you, b) get 900 PPH accounts that will ban you after every week, c) run really good during the super bowl.

Looking at the 21 weeks, we had 2 bad weeks (-27.52% ROI, -17.77%), 5 good weeks, and the rest was ROI's between -3% and +3% that when summed came out to +0.95%. 14/21 weeks were just small wins or losses. Kinda boring.

Lets figure out interceptions by next season guys!

My book is offering a boosted payout today: +200 for a Penn St win OR an Oklahoma win. Using a no-vig calculator and a parlay calculator, I figured out that the fair odds are -159 for a 2-team ML parlay that includes both of their opponents. So a fair payout on either PSU or OU to win should be +159, right?

why not just find no vig line for Penn St and Oklahoma ML, convert odds to probability, sum since they're independent events, convert back to line?

maybe little fudge on probabilities since no vig line isn't necessarily in the center of the line

Rough calc - Penn St is ~+350, so 22.22%
Oklahoma is about the same
So say 44% which is +127

I think I disagree with adding them like that.

If each team has a 22.22% chance of winning, the chance that both teams lose is (1-.2222)*(1-.2222)=0.605. So the chance that at least one team wins is 1-.605=0.395. Which makes the fair line +153. But maybe I'm missing something.

damn math is hard that makes more sense

signing up for Probability 101 ASAP

You need a vacation bro.

see. dont need to be even good at math to do this

in my defense i've been up all night reading about XFL

this is my life now

I thought u were actually taking a vacation tho.

Westgate just posted XFL. For some reason they have Dallas Renegades -10 when everyone else has -7.

I was until XFL entered my life. But seriously NBA all star break next week is when it starts. So at least gonna get in two weeks of XFL degeneracy.
-10 is Sharp. St Louis has no receivers in a game that promotes passing. They are the worst team in the league when Dallas is top two. Dallas and ny my two locks of the week ats

Big Games Only
Pelicans +7 under 246
Spurs +12 over 226

3-3 ytd
This feels exhausting so going to stop. Guess I'm an old man and it's too much work to put up plays everyday.

oh ya, Penn State +9 over 144'