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12-19-2019 , 10:29 PM
MLB - Estrellas Orientales vrs Gigantes del Cibao Score in the First Inning [6304055] Yes -101( ACTION )N/A VOID
Score: Yes(0) - No(1)
Game start 12/19/2019 05:30 PM

better to be lucky than good
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12-19-2019 , 10:41 PM
Did you place that during the game or before?

Only my bets placed during the game were voided.
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12-19-2019 , 11:48 PM
Has anyone here done much research on reliability of goalie and team defense data, specifically regarding historical vs recent

Getting killed this year on goalies

https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...0502/105675503

Still in first place in basically every cash game despite -6 points from my goalies when one would expect at least 20 points there if I were a monkey just tossing darts...

Like at what point should one concede that despite little roster turnover, a team that's been very good defensively maybe hasn't been unlucky but just actually is no longer good at defense?
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12-20-2019 , 01:14 AM
Thanks for treating me to lunch, Sigs. Gonna cash all my double ups.
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12-20-2019 , 01:26 AM
i only bet RSIF once and it was around whenever i posted, that got canceled

we might get screwed with PJ tucker in foul trouble. Same thing happened to Middleton. Cashing all tournaments with that lineup too. Lets get that grocery money.
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12-20-2019 , 01:56 AM
Oo yeah we are getting backdoored hard right now. The beauty of sports they say

Edit: You the man, Sigs. PJ Tucker ftw.

Last edited by iloveny161; 12-20-2019 at 02:12 AM.
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12-20-2019 , 02:07 AM
it's okay we good now. tucker got a double double and i'm guessing most of the george/kawhi people passed us by now. Could have killed it but Capela and Middleton really screwed us. And Gobert didn't do anything in 1H but cashing all double ups and most h2h is cool

tomg looks like we got 44/80 so no trip to nashville but i think the lineup was good. Tons of SOG just nothing went in. Goalie screwed us scoring -0.8, if we were rolling with Lehrner could have cashed and then used extra money to upgrade Cizikas.

Lets try again for the next qualifier

just need 1 more point to cash 2H o114 and Rockets -2.5 2H

edit: lol harden misses 2 free throws. destined to push 2H over now
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12-20-2019 , 02:12 AM
heyo

Paul George makes two point shot (Montrezl Harrell assists)
122 - 117 0.9 seconds left

easiest 10k over. no sweat.

and we got some of the tourneys iloveny. nice 61.17% ROI on that lineup. just enough to cover all the others and NHL

and small props win (2.07%)
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12-20-2019 , 02:19 AM
Basketball is such a beautiful sport

Hello pork chashu bowl with 2 poke tacos on the side

Edit: Looks like both PG13 and Kawhi both finished with 9 rebounds. One more on either player and could have hurt a bit. Crazy how tight it can be in these things.

Last edited by iloveny161; 12-20-2019 at 02:39 AM.
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12-20-2019 , 04:25 AM
I'm up late looking at NHL because of my hero TomG and was wondering, what is the consensus on Defenseman in the Utility position with the new scoring on DK? Bad idea? Good?
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12-20-2019 , 07:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
Has anyone here done much research on reliability of goalie and team defense data, specifically regarding historical vs recent

Getting killed this year on goalies

https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...0502/105675503

Still in first place in basically every cash game despite -6 points from my goalies when one would expect at least 20 points there if I were a monkey just tossing darts...

Like at what point should one concede that despite little roster turnover, a team that's been very good defensively maybe hasn't been unlucky but just actually is no longer good at defense?

Defenses are way more tougher to analyze than offenses. You should start wiht a baseline or a strong assumption and go from there.
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12-20-2019 , 07:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaiDaMorte
Defenses are way more tougher to analyze than offenses. You should start wiht a baseline or a strong assumption and go from there.
That's what I've been doing, problem is that Yahoo's pricing algo is all recency and matchup. So teams and goalies who've historically been great plays like bobrovsky/rinne/vasilevsky are usually among the cheapest options despite being at home and in a favorable matchup but then I'll play them and wham they live up to their pricing.

Beginning to rethink tapering off my historical weight for defensive stats because at this point in the season I feel like its acting less as a luck neutralizing element and more of something driving false narratives.

Furthermore, at what point do we concede the Lightning are no longer a dominant team?

Will definitely be reading more about hockey sample size reliability in next few days because this has been driving me crazy.

Just wish they had something like this for hockey the same way they have it for baseball, which was crucial for accurately weighing historical results

Will report back if I learn anything

Last edited by rickroll; 12-20-2019 at 07:45 AM.
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12-20-2019 , 07:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
That's what I've been doing, problem is that Yahoo's pricing algo is all recency and matchup. So teams and goalies who've historically been great plays like bobrovsky/rinne/vasilevsky are usually among the cheapest options despite being at home and in a favorable matchup but then I'll play them and wham they live up to their pricing.

Beginning to rethink tapering off my historical weight for defensive stats because at this point in the season I feel like its acting less as a luck neutralizing element and more of something driving false narratives.

Furthermore, at what point do we concede the Lightning are no longer a dominant team?

Will definitely be reading more about hockey sample size reliability in next few days because this has been driving me crazy.

Just wish they had something like this for hockey the same way they have it for baseball, which was crucial for accurately weighing historical results

Will report back if I learn anything

From a quick look at some numbers, all goalies seem very equal on performance.

You should never pay a huge diference to pick one over another like double the money or something. There's some factores that you should look after. why they are cheap and live to that expectation?
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12-20-2019 , 12:02 PM
There are some interesting derivatives on the Buffalo match-up, unless one team always receives while the other defers.

Anyone know of a source that shows which NCAAF teams choose receive versus defer?
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12-20-2019 , 12:34 PM
Spoiler:
LAK Alex Iafallo u1.5 +122 LOSS -1
BUF Brandon Montour u1.5 +133 WIN 1.33
BOS Patrice Bergeron o3.5 +127 WIN 1.27
BOS David Pastrnak o3.5 -110 LOSS -1.1
WPG Blake Wheeler o2.5 -109 WIN 1
WPG Kyle Connor o3.5 +130 WIN 1.3
CAR Dougie Hamilton o3.5 +127 WIN 1.27
CGY Noah Hanifin u1.5 +131 WIN 1.31
ARI Taylor Hall o2.5 -169 WIN 1
VGK Max Pacioretty o3.5 +101 LOSS -1
SOGs Daily: 7-3-0, +5.38u
SOGs YTD: 187-186-1, -11.49u, 447.59u risked, -2.6% ROI
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12-20-2019 , 01:13 PM
I could never find NCAAF coin toss data in the play by play posted by sites. Maybe one dedicated person watches every game and records it.

NBA Props Dec 20:

https://pastebin.com/vEt691Ya

I thought it would be a good idea to enter the $1500 NHL tournament on DK (https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/83346990) and trying to decide between two teams. Any feedback NHL Sharps?

Lineup #1:
C Matthews
C Trocheck
W Rust
W Hyman
W Ovechkin
D Ekblad
D Nurse
G Samsonov
UTIL Eller

Lineup #2:
C Matthews
C Tavares
W Rust
W Hyman
W Kassian
D Barrie
D Ekblad
G Samosonov
UTIL Nurse

I also entered a bunch of low entry double ups and h2h to balance it out.
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12-20-2019 , 01:23 PM
TOR Zach Hyman o2.5 +126
TOR Morgan Rielly o2.5 -111
TOR Auston Matthews o3.5 -112
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12-20-2019 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daringly
There are some interesting derivatives on the Buffalo match-up, unless one team always receives while the other defers.

Anyone know of a source that shows which NCAAF teams choose receive versus defer?
Are these just stale derivatives from the big total move?
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12-20-2019 , 01:28 PM
Nah 1H dropped about 3 points

Same for 1Q went from 13.5 to 10.5 with heavy on the under

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12-20-2019 , 01:35 PM
12-20-2019 , 01:37 PM
This is my current DK optimal probably not good for that tournament with a $2500 Dman punt. Probably means I'm over-projecting Leafs (see todays SOGs)

C Leon Draisaitl
C Auston Matthews
W Ilya Mikheyev
W Bryan Rust
W Alex Ovechkin
D Mike Matheson
D Jake Muzzin
G Ben Bishop
Flex Morgan Rielly
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12-20-2019 , 01:40 PM
lets build around our commons

matthews, rust, overchkin

i'm gonna try to win 3 tickets to the live nhl and me you and rick and roll will take it down
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12-20-2019 , 02:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG
Are these just stale derivatives from the big total move?
There are 3 components to my derivative betting, and each plays a role.
1. Incorrect opener / initial conversion
2. Move (which may help or hut)
3. Correlation
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12-20-2019 , 02:32 PM
Got Charlotte 1H TT U11.5 -115 it got BOMBED all the way down to u11 -128. anyone know how much the move on and off of the 11 in CFB 1Hs is worth?
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12-20-2019 , 03:03 PM
11 seems like it shouldn't be worth much but who knows

I'm on Buffalo/Charlotte o51. I don't know how to account for 30 mph winds in my model tho
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