Quote:
Originally Posted by No_Limit_Joker
Because we can tell you aren't going to make it.
We are quietly hoping you avoid the degenerate life we all live, that is devoid of any joy, besides the occasional short-lived dopamine rush of meaningless money. ( Then it is back to being miserable again. )
Advanced math knowledge (which you do not have btw) will not help much in sports gambling.
Sports Gambling has a 10% rake built into every bet. So you will need to be right much more than half of the time to even have a profit.
This is not attainable without an edge
To acquire an edge you need to have more knowledge than the bookies
This is a challenge
Having an edge is highly unlikely without inside information, 1-off simulator software, or by applying knowledge to frontrun and outthink the bookies
For example some Cornerback is having trouble on the Dolphins and the media is unaware. You would bet for the Wide Receiver he is most likely covering on prop bets to succeed.
That is how you frontrun and outthink the bookies.
You MUST have an edge to outperform the greedy rake they take.
Otherwise you will lose your money. The End.
If you do not have an edge then you are better off on the pass line at craps where you are getting a much better deal at being robbed slowly
Lets go through this because I have some time today and Im bored.
First off, this guy is generally right. OP, you probably dont have much of a chance of making money betting sports. However, a lot of this info is incorrect. Lets go line by line.
"Advanced math knowledge (which you do not have btw) will not help much in sports gambling." - This is very wrong. I'm one of the 'not good at math but can still make money betting sports' crew for sure and even I know how wrong this is. Handicapping is mostly math and theres a lot of math with odd conversions, knowing when to buy points, knowing which close bets are better. You dont HAVE to be a math whiz to make it work, but it for sure helps. Also, OP seems to want to come at this with math knowledge being his 'edge'. He doesnt seem like a 'hustler getting sharps tons of good accounts and taking a piece' type. You gotta be one or the other, really. Good people/hustling skills to stay in low limit land and make it work, or good math skills to cap yourself.
"Sports Gambling has a 10% rake built into every bet. So you will need to be right much more than half of the time to even have a profit." Again, very wrong. -110 both sides is 4.56% house edge. But the worst part of your answer is assuming every single bet is made at -110. If you dont know this, you shouldnt be giving out advice.
"Having an edge is highly unlikely without inside information, 1-off simulator software, or by applying knowledge to frontrun and outthink the bookies" - lol what is '1-off simulator software' and where did you even see that word salad before? There are lots of ways to gain edges. Inside info, sure. Pretty rare and only people who dont do much betting probably think inside info is the way to win. Modeling, math, market theory, line shopping, access to lots of different kinds of credit books, etc is how you get an edge. Would love to know what you think 'frontrunning' a bookie means.
"For example some Cornerback is having trouble on the Dolphins and the media is unaware. You would bet for the Wide Receiver he is most likely covering on prop bets to succeed.
That is how you frontrun and outthink the bookies. " Well look at that, you did explain! But again, pretty bad. Why would you think that YOU know a corner is 'having trouble' but no one else does? How do you know the market hasnt absorbed that info yet? Only way is to model it. Again, using math. That is not 'front running' anyone or anything.
"You MUST have an edge to outperform the greedy rake they take.
Otherwise you will lose your money. The End." -Finally something that isn't outright wrong, although I do think your use of 'greedy' is wrong here and betrays some info about you. Just curious, are you under 25 years old?
"If you do not have an edge then you are better off on the pass line at craps where you are getting a much better deal at being robbed slowly" - Not wrong, but again, no one is 'robbing you'. No one is making you play anything. Thats like saying a movie theater is robbing you by charging you for a ticket.
Thats all! Howd I do, you guys!?
Edit: You do not have a 132 IQ. lol