I'm surprised to see LSU as such a heavy favorite to win the BCS Championship, especially because it is possible to bet against them on at least 3 different sites (WSEX, 5Dimes, Matchbook).

I already shorted them on WSEX at -122, -138 and -156. You can now bet against them at -178.

Here's my calculations for their chance to win the BCS. I am assuming they need to win all of their remaining games, which is a good assumption, though not 100%.

Regular season games (with spread and chance to win):

@ Mississippi -19.5 89.6%
Arkansas -14.5 83.0%

The game at Mississippi is this Saturday, so obviously the line is available. The line for the Arkansas game is a game of the year, so that line is available. The winning percentages are calculated using Pinny's moneylines. So according to available lines, LSU has a 25.6% of losing again before the regular season is even over.

After the regular season, they will play in the SEC Championship game in the Georgia Dome (Atlanta, Georgia). They will play either Tennessee, Georgia or Florida.

Tennesse is 4-2 in the SEC, with two conference games left. If they win them both, they win the SEC. This would probably be the easiest opponent of the three for LSU to face. Here are their remaining games.

Vanderbilt -11.5 79.2%
@ Kentucky (PK) (50.0%)

Any numbers in paranthesis are my estimates. Any number not in paranthesis is an available line. Their chance of winning out is estimated by me as 39.6%. This is the only way they win the SEC East.

Georgia is 5-2 in the SEC and only has 1 SEC game left.

Kentucky -7.5 73.0%

Here's the scenarios and how they shake out.

1. Georgia wins Kentucky (73.0%), Tennessee wins both (39.6%) = Tennessee wins SEC East 28.9%

2. Georgia wins (73%), Tennessee wins (79.2%), then loses (50.0%) = Georgia wins SEC East 28.9%

3. Georgia wins (73%), Tennesse loses (20.8%), then wins (50.0%) = Georgia wins SEC East 7.6%

4. Georgia wins (73%), Tennesse loses twice (20.8% X 50.0%) = Georgia wins SEC East 7.6%

5. Georgia loses (27%), Tennessee wins twice (39.6%) = Tennessee wins SEC East 10.7%

6. Georgia loses, Tennesse wins, then loses = Florida wins SEC East 10.7%

7. Georgia loses, Tennesse loses, then wins = Florida wins SEC East 2.8%

8. Georgia loses, Tennesse loses both - Florida wins SEC East 2.8%

The way Florida wins is if more than 2 teams finish at 5-3, they will win the tiebreaker. The key is that Kentucky would be 5-3 if they beat Georgia and Tennesse, which means 3 teams will be 5-3 in any of the scenarios where Georgia loses and Tennesse splits.

Tenn 39.6%
GA 44.1%
FL 16.3%

Here's the lines I made up for the SEC Championship in Atlanta, GA (Georgia has been given a HFA).

Georgia vs LSU (-3) (59.0%)
Tennesse vs LSU (-7.5) (73.0%)
Florida vs LSU (-3) (59.0%)

So we'll say that LSU has a 64.5% chance (the weighted average) to win the SEC Championship game. We're down to a 48.0% chance of them still not having their second loss by now.

The BCS Championship game is in New Orleans, which we'll consider as being a home field advantage. Their opponent will very likely be Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma or Missouri. Whichever one of these powerhouses wins out will be a formidable opponent and we'll say that LSU is about equal to them.

LSU (-3) (60%)

So we come to a final number of 28.8% to win the BCS title. That means +247 would be a fair line. It is possible to bet against them at -175 on Matchbook and 5Dimes. It is -178 on WSEX.

I would like to hear from anyone who disagrees with my estimated lines, especially if you think LSU should be an even bigger favorite in the games I estimated.


LSU Schedule:

@ Mississippi -19.5 89.6%
Arkansas -14.5 83.0%
SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA - Georgia Dome) (64.5%)
BCS Championship (New Orleans, LA - Louisiana Superdome) (60%)

i don't know much about college football, but i don't think it's correct to call kansas a powerhouse. other than that, good analysis.

What I meant was that any team that LSU meets will definitely have earned it.

Kansas is a good example. Their last 3 games would be:

Iowa St (patsy)
Missouri (top 5 team)
vs Oklahoma (top 5 team on neutral field in Big 12 Championship)

So if Kansas gets to the BCS game, they will be 13-0 after a very tough schedule. So what I mean is that any of these teams would be a handful:

Kansas 13-0
Missouri 12-1
Oklahoma 12-1
Oregon 11-1

Good work. I like your numbers.

It's solely based on who they play in the Conference Championship Game. Right now Matthew Stafford has his confidence very high, Georgia's defense is flying around but the main reason is because of Knowshown Moreno and Thomas Brown really running the football extremely well. Moreno looks like a Heisman Trophy winner the last four weeks.

I don't think LSU can beat Georgia if they have to play, if Georgia continues on this path. Georgia, to me, not showing up against UT or playing subpar against South Carolina cost themselves the national championship because if they had one loss they would still be playing for it.

you sound like us GA fans....The South Carolina game still hurts...

I don't agree that the Mizzou v Kansas winner is automatically a 'real' team. I think AzzuSt or Oregon would light them up on a neutral field [and I'm anti-P10 most years.]

They remind me of Mich and Ohio last year, only worse because at least Mich was undefeated before losing that game. It's just that neither team was exposed until January rather than October due to scheduling.

Missou has one solid win. Barely.

Kansas struggled with 5-5 KSt, and has wins over FIU, CMich, SELa, Toldeo - that's pathetic right thre.
Okla lost to 5-6 Colo, and struggled to beat awful ISU.

In short, the biggest worry is that LSU would be a much bigger fave vs any B12 team, as they will likely still be a 'patsy' team. Their Sagarin SoS skeds are 97 [hello Kansas!], 82, 52 respectively. So I utterly disagree with the UK has played a tough sked argument, they'll go from no top 30 teams to having played 2. Oregon's played 4 already, Ohio will have played 4, etc.

Oregon is 12 and AzzuSt 27, numbers that will climb for AzzuSt after playing USC et al.

And LSU may only be a slight fave or PK over Oregon if OU slams Zona, OSU [32 in Sag], UCLA as they sure might.

Anywhere below -150 was a very nice price for you, I agree. But I think LSU -3 is too low considering if Oregon loses, they will be favored by 6-7 or more over any B12 team, and likely Ohio as well.

1. Have you actually watched these teams play? Missouri is a very good team and will be a handful for anyone. I'd like to see Kansas more on neutral field/road before I'm convinced they are as good as they have looked but if they beat Mizzou and OU, they will do that.

2. University of Kansas is KU, not UK. This would confuse them with Kentucky. Oregon is UO, not OU. That is Oklahoma. Please either use full names or the correct abbreviations in the future.

3. This whole "struggled" concept is funny. Kansas struggled in their rivalry game? At Kansas State? ZOMG! How many teams has LSU struggled against?

4. Oklahoma lost one game, at altitude, to an inconsistent team. They muffed crucial punts and took their foot off the gas in the second half. This is a very good team.

1. Yes. Many times.
2. No.
3. Is not.
4. They have 1-loss v the #52 schedule. If they win the B12 title game we will see how good they are. Regardless, they are not as good as #2 Oregon or AzzuSt [ZOMG has 1-loss @ #2 Oregon, a much better team than UC]

Personally, I hope the B12 rep makes it as I enjoy winning huge wads of cash shorting them in BCS title games: 55-17, 13-2, Miami up 34-0 in 2nd Q. Their record is vomitriffic the past 10 years in these games.

For 2, do you do it to be annoying, just insist on being incorrect or to make your post harder to read? I see you've done it again with CU, not UC.

For 4, you honestly think ASU is a better team than any Big 12 team? That's pretty funny. Fortunately we should get to see ASU play the worst of those 3 teams in the Holiday Bowl.

He calls Ohio State "Ohio" as well. It's bizarre.

ASU 1 loss at #2 Oregon, current #27 SoS.
Ok loss at 5-6 UC, current #52 SoS. Hilarious!

It's pretty funny you think Ok is clearly better than the Devils, and Miz better AND Kss better. Try not to be such a blind homer, SE is thataway.

I'll take AzzuSt str8 up versus, as you said, any B12 team right now at Even for any amount you want up to $1k.

[And pls don't move the goalposts like 90% of SB does when somebody calls your logic into question. A 'yay' or 'nay' is fine. I actually put you in the 10% willing to back it up.]

14-day ban kthxbye.

/Mizzou grad



-P

I agree that Mizzou and Kansas are pretty suspect...of course I am bias to the SEC...but I watch a TON of college football...

Mizzou's win over Colorado was impressive since it was at CU...but seriously what else have they done?

Texas is just plain awful...I can promise you they are not 9-2 in the SEC...

Oklahoma has a very good team...there are very few great teams this year that is for sure. I would put my Bulldogs up against anyone today...but a month ago we looked about as average as Texas...

If Miz beats Kss and Ok, I will agree they are 'legit' but do you want to bet they are more than a 3-pt dog to LSU? [coming full circle.] You get -3 and under, I get -3.5 and more...


You're looking better on that KC bet finally...luckboxed that 29-yd Figgie...

Homer? I'm a Pac-10 fan more than I am a Big 12 fan. I just happen to go to CU and root for them but pretty much hate the rest of the Big 12.



I'll take you up on that in the unlikely event that ASU plays Oklahoma and there are no significant injuries to either team.

The main bit of information in my KC bet was the fact that Brody Croyle would be starting for this team midway through the season. I felt -- I believe correctly -- that the market lines had not accounted for the fact which was not widely known that Croyle would be finishing out the second half of the season for KC.

This week he gets his first full start, and we'll see what happens.

I definitely started out in the hole with KC looking like they'd contend for the division early, but losing to Denver helps a lot, and Croyle coming in from here on out should seal things.

/hijack

-P

You said it was 'pretty funny' that I thought ASU was better than any of the 3 B12 teams ranked ahead of them:
BCS Standings -
#3 Kansas
#4 Okla
#5 Missou
...

#8 ASU

I'm offering you any of 3 teams, ALL ranked ahead of ASU that will likely play ASU in the bowl game, ASU has an injured QB, on a neutral field, at PICK, and you don't want the action.

That's completely fine, just admit your earlier statement was wrong and you're not willing back it up. Rather than just say "No thanks, nice offer," you moved the goalposts.

For illogical trash talk, Sporting Events is
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<------thataway

Reading comprehension problem? I said I thought it was funny that you thought they were better than any B12 team. Then I said I would take Oklahoma if they play. How would that possibly be moving the goal posts?

Here's the analysis I did for the chances of the other main contenders to make it into the BCS title game.

Oregon has 3 games left:

@ Arizona -11.5 78.62%
@ UCLA (-11) (78.57%)
Oregon St -19.5 89.6%

Again, numbers in paranthesis are my own. All others are available lines. This gives them a 55.4% chance to run the table. As long as Kansas does not also run the table, this should assure them a spot in the BCS title game.

The line in the BCS game will of course depend on who they play, especially because the game is in New Orleans. This gives at least a small advantage to LSU, should they make it.

Kansas will make it into the BCS title game if they run the table and Oregon loses. They would probably leap frog Oregon even if Oregon does run the table.

Iowa St -26 (94.0%)
Missouri (-4.5) (63.0%)
Oklahoma - B12 Champ Game in San Antonio (PK) (50%)

This puts them at 29.6% to run the table. Again, this could have a direct effect on whether Oregon makes it or not, because KU could pass Oregon even if Oregon does not lose again.

Missouri will make it if they run the table, and Oregon loses.

@ Kansas State -7 70.3%
@ Kansas (+4.5) (37%)
Oklahoma - B12 Champ Game in San Antonio (+1.5) (47.0%)

This puts them at 12.2% to win those 3 games.


Oklahoma is in the same situation.

@ Texas Tech -7.5 71.9%
Oklahoma St -20 (90%)
Kansas/Missouri - B12 Champ Game in San Antonio (51.0%)

This would put them at 33% to run the table.

One thing I screwed up is that Kansas' game against Missouri is actually taking place at a neutral site. The game is in Kansas City, Missouri. It is not a home game.

Edit to add: The game is taking place in Arrowhead Stadium

Your 13 to 2 score is a big 12 win, Okla over FSU.

Last 10 BCS title games:

big 12 - 3 wins
sec - 3 wins
acc - 2 wins
pac 10 - 1 win
big 11(ten) - 1 win

Poster 1: ASU is better than most of the B12 teams ranked ahead of them. B12 has played soft schedule.
Poster 2: It's funny that you think ASU is better than any of those 3 teams. You are dumb and haven't watched the B12.

P1: Okay, I'll take ASU over any of their B12 opponent in a bowl game at Even money.
P2: Oh, I only want the Sooners. When I said it was funny that you think ASU is better than Sooners, 'Hawks, Tigers, I really meant only the Sooners. But I won't back down even though it is stunning obvious I think ASU is better than 2 of the 3 teams mentioned.

P1: Man, move the goalposts much?
P2: Oh, is it really that obvious? Just because I pussed out on 2 of the 3 teams I said was 'pretty funny' if anyone thought ASU was better than? Damn. I am bad at lyfe.

Yes, that was a stupid error on my part. the 55-17 and 134-pt shellackings the B12 have taken in past 6 years made me forget.

However, there have only been 9 BCS Title Games:
Acc 2
B12 2
SEC 3
B10 1
p10 1
and I heavily backed Texas ATS and SU in one of them, I got no trouble backing them when they are actually good, same as I jumped all over USC+1 v Okla when they were actually good.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCS_Nat...mpionship_Game